The Falcon's Nest (system plays 2009-2010)

joanapoker · 11-07-09, 09:36 AM

nice cash yesterday! I've followed you on the NHL game! thx

I'll be playing your NCAAF games also!
good work!

og4667 · 11-07-09, 09:38 AM

another good night Falcon. consistent winners

TheShark10 · 11-07-09, 11:26 AM

Saturday 11/07/09 evening Card. This will conclude the day and there are no other plays for saturday.

NBA: Under 195 NY/Mil (-110) (64.25%) Play 2.75 units to win 2.50 units.

NBA: LAC -3 (-130) (66.65%) Play 3.25 units to win 2.50 units.

joanapoker · 11-08-09, 06:33 AM

what a disaster in NCAAF yesterday! Must have been so, bcs of me following every play

nice puch at LAC

Gl for today

TheShark10 · 11-08-09, 09:55 AM

NBA: 9-7 (+3.25 units)
NHL: 16-10 (+9.50 units)
MLB: 2-2(+1.375 units)
NFL: 4-3 (+1.375 units)
NCAAF: 8-7 (-0.875 units)
NCAAB: 0-0 (+0.00 units)

Overall: 39-29 (57.35%) (+14.625 units)

TheShark10 · 11-08-09, 10:04 AM

There will be another post with the evening NBA and NHL games today.

Sunday 11/08/09 Card:

NFL: Balt -2.5 (-120) (65.00%)

NFL: SF -3 (-130) (62.00%)

NFL: PHI -3 (+105) (64.00%)

TheShark10 · 11-08-09, 10:14 AM

Additional Play:

NBA: Phoenix Suns PK (-110) (67.35%)

TheShark10 · 11-08-09, 01:53 PM

Last play for Sunday:

NBA: Over 197 NO/LA Lakers (-110) (68.95%) Play 2.75 units to win 2.50 units.

TheShark10 · 11-08-09, 01:57 PM

All of the plays were to win 2.50 units today.

TheShark10 · 11-09-09, 08:51 AM

NBA: 10-8 (+3.00 units)
NHL: 16-10 (+9.50 units)
MLB: 2-2(+1.375 units)
NFL: 4-6 (-7.375 units)
NCAAF: 8-7 (-0.875 units)
NCAAB: 0-0 (+0.00 units)

Overall: 40-33 (54.79%) (+5.625 units)

dchecks · 11-09-09, 09:15 AM

Wow tough Sunday! Bounce back big, good luck the rest of week!!!

joanapoker · 11-09-09, 10:37 AM

next week I'll be all over in your football picks, you've missed all of them (i've tailed), so next week I can feel the cash raining

ehehe

u are doing a good work, keep it up!
cheers

TheShark10 · 11-09-09, 11:20 AM

Monday 11/09/09 Card:

NBA: LA Clippers (pk) -110 (63.85%) Play 2.75 units to win 2.50 units.

joanapoker · 11-09-09, 12:49 PM

LAC is now at +2!
I'm also at LAC pk

gl

corona · 11-10-09, 12:47 AM

2-9 since i started tailing. i'm pretty certain i can jinx anyone's system just by playing them.

joanapoker · 11-10-09, 05:20 AM

Originally posted by corona

2-9 since i started tailing. i'm pretty certain i can jinx anyone's system just by playing them.

me 2!! lol!! exactly the same record since I started tailing him

I'm a jinxer too

TheShark10 · 11-10-09, 10:42 AM

NBA: 10-9(+0.25 units)
NHL: 16-10 (+9.50 units)
MLB: 2-2(+1.375 units)
NFL: 4-6 (-7.375 units)
NCAAF: 8-7 (-0.875 units)
NCAAB: 0-0 (+0.00 units)

Overall: 40-34 (54.05%) (+2.875 units)

TheShark10 · 11-10-09, 10:48 AM

We are going into a new format of (1-5 units) not flat betting anymore.

Tuesday 11/10/09 Card:

NHL: Tor (-140) Ot Included, Play 1.40 units to win 1 units.

NHL: Ottawa (-140) OT included, Play 1.40 units to win 1 unit.

NHL: STL (-120) OT included, Play 1.20 units to win 1 unit.

NBA: Miami -6 (-120) Play 1.20 units to win 1 unit.

NBA: Sac +1.5 (-110) Play 1.10 units to win 1 unit.

dchecks · 11-10-09, 11:09 AM

Hey Shark, any reason for the change in the units bet?

joanapoker · 11-10-09, 11:48 AM

well I don't want to jinx anymore, but I'm playing the NHL picks!

and played a 5 point Teaser with Miami -2.5 and Bulls +7.5
and strong the OVER 204 at Bulls

GL

killersweet · 11-10-09, 12:01 PM

I like the Leafs and Sens tonight!
GL

scratbandit · 11-10-09, 01:12 PM

The averages are evening out. Soon will be 50-50. I love this thread by the way. Awesome on nhl that is for sure...

TheShark10 · 11-11-09, 12:46 PM

NBA: 12-9(+2.25 units)
NHL: 18-11 (+10.10 units)
MLB: 2-2(+1.375 units)
NFL: 4-6 (-7.375 units)
NCAAF: 8-7 (-0.875 units)
NCAAB: 0-0 (+0.00 units)

Overall: 44-35 (55.69%) (+5.475 units)

TheShark10 · 11-11-09, 12:55 PM

Wednesday 11/11/09 Card:

NHL: NJ -120 Play 1.20 units to win 1 unit

NHL: CLB -120 Play 1.20 units to win 1 unit

NBA: Minn +8 Play 1.10 units to win 1 unit

NBA: Indiana -5 Play 1.10 units to win 1 unit

NBA: Boston -12 Play 1.10 units to win 1 unit

hels · 11-11-09, 05:38 PM

are the hockey games regulation or OT included tonight Shark?

Another question I have is last night the pick was TOR-140 including OT. Toronto has gone to OT 7 times so far this season and has not won once!!! Obviously those are some pretty awful stats that need to be considered. So, if a team is so horrible in OT why would you take them at -140 instead of ~ +125 ????? Especially against the Wild who have gone to OT three times this season and are 3-0.

This is probably a question I should post in the regular NHL capping thread as well, but I'm just curious as to the reasoning behind the Toronto with OT pick?

edit, Toronto is 0-5 not 0-7 in OT this year

TheShark10 · 11-12-09, 09:56 AM

NBA: 14-10(+3.15 units)
NHL: 19-12 (+9.90 units)
MLB: 2-2(+1.375 units)
NFL: 4-6 (-7.375 units)
NCAAF: 8-7 (-0.875 units)
NCAAB: 0-0 (+0.00 units)

Overall: 47-37 (55.95%) (+6.175 units)

killersweet · 11-12-09, 10:50 AM

Originally posted by hels

are the hockey games regulation or OT included tonight Shark?

Another question I have is last night the pick was TOR-140 including OT. Toronto has gone to OT 7 times so far this season and has not won once!!! Obviously those are some pretty awful stats that need to be considered. So, if a team is so horrible in OT why would you take them at -140 instead of ~ +125 ????? Especially against the Wild who have gone to OT three times this season and are 3-0.

This is probably a question I should post in the regular NHL capping thread as well, but I'm just curious as to the reasoning behind the Toronto with OT pick?

edit, Toronto is 0-5 not 0-7 in OT this year

I don't know why Sharks took that pick. The reason I took Toronto, was because they have been playing better hockey lately and the goalie was on fire. He still played well against the Wild, but the defense totally let him down. Also the Wild has been struggling to score goals. But they exploded in the 2nd period against the leafs for sure.

TheShark10 · 11-12-09, 11:15 AM

Thursday 11/12/09 Card:

NHL: TB -130 OT included Play 1.7 units to win 1.3 units.

joanapoker · 11-12-09, 11:18 AM

good run on the NBA lately! nice work so far shark!

hels · 11-12-09, 05:44 PM

I guess my last post in this thread wasn't taken into consideration. Here is another example of a pick including OT where the chosen pick is an awful 1-5 in OT so far this season. Their single OT win was against no other than the 0-5 in OT Toronto Maple Leafs.... so the two 0-5 OT teams squared off and one of them had to break their trend and it ended up being the Lightning.

I have already mentioned how the Wild are 3-0 in OT this season. The way I see the matchup in OT it's a 1-5 team vs 3-0 team. If you were to set a line on 2 teams in this predicament it would probably be something like +350 and -400 respectively.

With this in mind, where is the value in taking TB OT inc. at -130 where in regulation they are at +133?????

The line at Pinnacle of this game going to OT is NO-360 YES+322. So, hypothetically every 3.5 games will go to OT and the lightning maybe have a 1/3.5 chance of winning in OT it means that 1 out of every 12 (3.5 x 3.5 =12.25) games will end with the Lightning winning in OT.

So crunching the numbers would probably mean that out of 12 games between TB and Minn where TB is valued at -130, TB would win 7. With one of those wins coming from OT included with the line, they would win 6 in regulation. So, let's say on all 12 games you were to play 1.7units on TB incl OT

You would win 7 at (1.7units X -130 = 1.3units) so 7 X 1.3 = 9.1units. You would lose 5 (5 X 1.7 = 8.5). 9.1-8.5 = Winning 0.6 units

Or, you play all 12 games with TB winning in Regulation and that would result in 6W
You would win 6 at (1.7units X +133 =2.26units) so 6 X 2.26 = 13.56units. You lose 6 (6 X 1.7 = 10.2).13.56-10.2 =Winning 3.36 units

If I went wrong anywhere please let me know..... but I know I'm taking TB in Regulation tonight as I only see decreased value playing them OT included. Of course after my explanation TB will now win tonight in OT

jk. Each to their own and BOL to all!!!

edited to prove how jinxing yourself works everytime!!! lol... obv I took TB in regulation and viola, they win in OT!!! hahah.. good job Shark, and I will just stick to listening and stop trying to make sense of it all

TheShark10 · 11-12-09, 06:28 PM

Additional Play:

NCAAF: Rutgers ML -130 Play 2.6 units to win 2.0 units.

TheShark10 · 11-13-09, 10:18 AM

NBA: 14-10(+3.15 units)
NHL: 20-12 (+11.20 units)
MLB: 2-2(+1.375 units)
NFL: 4-6 (-7.375 units)
NCAAF: 9-7 (+1.125 units)
NCAAB: 0-0 (+0.00 units)

Overall: 49-37 (56.97%) (+9.475 units)

TheShark10 · 11-13-09, 10:55 AM

Friday 11/13/09 Card:

NHL: Buf (-125) Ot included (62.45%) Play 2.50 units to win 2.00 units.

NBA: GS/NYK Under 225 (-110) (63.95%) Play 2.20 units to win 2.00 units.

NCAAB: Auburn -6 (-110) (60.00%) Play 2.20 units to win 2.00 units.

TheShark10 · 11-13-09, 10:57 AM

The NCAAF card tomorrow will be posted at 10:00 AM CST and the evening games for NHL and NBA will be posted at 4:00 PM CST tomorrow.

Hammew · 11-13-09, 11:26 AM

Thanks again Shark, been tailing you since you started the system, and we are looking good. Keep up the good work.