Why is Miami @ +3.5?

**Jay Edgar** · 03-28-07, 01:25 AM

Wade's out, as you probably know. Heat have played well since the break, but 9 of their last 12 have been at home.

But really, the line shouldn't be a surprise. Why would MIA be more likely to win the game than TOR? MIA wins 41% of the time on the road (14-20). TOR wins 71% of the time at home (25-10).

And welcome aboard.

**bigboydan** · 03-28-07, 02:15 AM

Jay pretty much said it best in regards to the %'s. According to my numbers I do feel that line suits Toronto backers very nice value. So with that being said I do like the Raptors in this game.

**LT Profits** · 03-28-07, 02:58 AM

I would like to point out though that Miami is 25-12 ATS as an underdog this season.

**ReBEL`LiON** · 03-28-07, 03:48 AM

so what are you guys taking on this one?

**LT Profits** · 03-28-07, 04:26 AM

I actually agree with you here Rebel.

**cwsulzba** · 03-28-07, 06:49 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I would like to point out though that Miami is 25-12 ATS as an underdog this season.

No they are not. They are 13-20 and Toronto is 25-8 as a favorite and 26-9 at home ATS. Miami is 12-22 ATS on the road also. That being said I still like the Heat in this one. The Heat have been dominant throughout the history of this series and Shaq seems to like playing against the Raptors. He is playing well right now too.

**AC1318** · 03-28-07, 07:04 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I would like to point out though that Miami is 25-12 ATS as an underdog this season.

yes but how many wins came at home as a dog

**buztah** · 03-28-07, 07:45 AM

I am playing Heat + 3.5

The Heat have owned the Raptors as of late and Shaq is in full stride. The Raptors are riddled with injuries and even though the Heat are as well I feel the Heat have adjusted better to the situation. Plus the Raptors have a comfortable first place lead where as the Heat are only 1.5 ahead of Wizzy, who plays, and will likely beat, the 76ers tonight. The Heat really need this game to stay 1.5 games ahead of Wizzy. Plus the Raptors have looked really ugly over the last 3 weeks or so, even in the games they won. I like the heat ML but am playing the +3.5 as that allows me to have more confidence. Look for a big night from Shaq.

**Carlos019** · 03-28-07, 11:38 AM

I live in miami, I follow the heat closely. The heat should be favored in this one by a couple of points. I dont understand this spread either. I think the heat have about a 75% chance of covering.

**onlooker** · 03-28-07, 12:03 PM

Welcome to the forum Rebel.

I like the Heat here myself, at +2 or better.

At the moment, I'm also on a PDA per say. My Treo700 smartphone.

**LT Profits** · 03-28-07, 01:57 PM

cwsulzba,

I don't know what you are looking at, but I just double-checked and Miami is indeed 25-12 ATS as an underdog. They are 19-14-1 ATS on the road overall and Toronto is 21-13-1 ATS at home, so all the numbers you quoted look off.

**cwsulzba** · 03-28-07, 02:30 PM

Got it from ESPN.com?

**LT Profits** · 03-28-07, 02:40 PM

I think ESPN quotes STRAIGHT UP records and not ATS.

**LT Profits** · 03-28-07, 02:43 PM

AC,

Heat are 17-10 ATS as a road underdog as they are here. They are a phenomenal 8-2 ATS as a home dog.

**AC1318** · 03-28-07, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

AC,

Heat are 17-10 ATS as a road underdog as they are here. They are a phenomenal 8-2 ATS as a home dog.

They are a phenomenal 8-2 ATS as a home dog.

well this doesn't matter tonight since they are away
thanks for the response

they are still a winning team ats on road though

**goldengoat** · 03-28-07, 05:19 PM

garbajosa and bargnani both out for the season....those are big injuries

those guys gave the raptors such a big element to their game

sometimes it looked like they were a european team watching them although with a little bit of toughness with bosh

we all know what the european style has done against nba styles the past few years but the raptors lost a bit of this dimension with these injuries

with those guys IN I would see the raptors blowing the heat out but now I dunno

**The HG** · 03-28-07, 06:15 PM

Miami has historically played Toronto tough, but this game is looking like one of those late-season coin flip type games. I think the line is about right. There are a wide range of outcomes, certainly Miami could win, but I think the numbers for this game are about right.

**AC1318** · 03-28-07, 10:03 PM

well toronto needed it as well