Jay Edgar NBA, Thursday 03.22.07

[Jay Edgar]

Through Wednesday 03.21.07

5%-OFF TEAMS vs. MONEYLINE (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Wednesday, 2-5, +0.50u
(ATL, CHA, MIL, CLE, IND, SEA, MIN)
YTD 264-486, +47.37u
(since the ASB: 55-121, -18.34u)

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Wednesday, 2-5, -3.25u
YTD 392-345 (.531) +29.75u
(since the ASB: 84-88 (.488) -8.40u)

POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES
1 HOU 67
2 DAL 66
3 DET 66
4 CLE 62
5 SAN 61
6 GS 61
7 DEN 61
8 UTH 59
9 MIA 56
10 ATL 53
11 WAS 53
12 CHI 53
13 LAC 50
14 MIL 50
15 PHX 50
16 ORL 48
17 NOK 48
18 SEA 47
19 CHA 47
20 NY 46
21 BOS 46
22 NJ 46
23 TOR 44
24 IND 41
25 SAC 40
26 MIN 40
27 POR 38
28 PHI 37
29 MEM 35
30 LAX 32


EDGAR LINES FOR 03.22.07
(favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

NY 6.0/212 over POR

MEM 3.4/143 over LAX

CHI 4.1/162 over DEN

HOU 2.7/131 over DET

PHX 6.2/228 over SAC


STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
(At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

POR +258, NY -175

LAX +171, MEM -121

DEN +196, CHI -137

DET +156, HOU -111

SAC +281, PHX -188

[Jay Edgar]

Complete for Thursday.

Another #29 vs #30 game tonight at Memphis, the fourth such this year. (With lots of steam yesterday on #30.)

Also #1 vs near-#2 (a #3 team just a half-point out of the #2 spot)

[bside]

I remember you posting something about these #30 vs. #29 games earlier Jay. Is #30 4-0 in this spot?

[Jay Edgar]

That's right.

Not suggesting there's any significance to it, it's just interesting.

I think I mentioned in it a couple weeks back in an imgv thread on that IND @ MIN game, which was one of the ugliest NBA games I've actually watched this year.

You do hear more talk, not necessarily informed talk, about how Memphis really wants to hang onto that worst record.

[Jay Edgar]

% TEAM ATS ML
5 DET LOSS -100
21 SAC LOSS -100
27 MEM WIN -100

Running out the string here. We'll track it to the end of the year for recordkeeping purposes, but the value is long gone.

(I have scaled way back on the NBA and will continue to do so. Tonight at PHX I was happy to sneak in with SAC 1H, and even more happy that I had virtually nothing else on the game.)


Through Thursday 03.22.07

5%-OFF TEAMS vs. MONEYLINE (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Thursday, 0-3, -3.00u
(MEM, DET, SAC)
YTD 264-489, +44.37u
(since the ASB: 55-124, -21.34u)

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Thursday, 1-2, -1.10u
YTD 393-347 (.531) +28.65u
(since the ASB: 85-90 (.486) -9.50u)