Jay Edgar NBA, Wednesday 03.21.07

**Jay Edgar** · 03-21-07, 12:03 AM

Cleveland is sporting a pretty big number over Dallas. Their rankings are very close, and both are in a BxB. Why the big spread for the home team? Cavs have a historically high home/road differential. (Although the Mavs do not.)

But the real reason is that I have discovered that over the last five years back-to-backs do not affect the winning percentage of the home team. Home teams win at the same rate (.585 or so, if I recall), whether or not they are playing back-to-back. Road teams, on the other hand, feel the BxB. Their winning percentage drops 7% in BxB games. So in calculating my lines I penalize the road team for BxB, but not the home team.

Of course that's all road teams in the league that lose 7% in BxB games. Whether the elite teams feel less impact, I don't know as a matter of research. Intuitively, you might think that to be the case.

**Jay Edgar** · 03-21-07, 11:50 AM

Who has played best all year? Who really deserves the #1 pick? Who knows? But the Edgar numbers have an opinon.

Thanks to Excel I can waste a few minutes figuring out every team's average "game score" for the year.

(The "game score" is the number awarded every team in each game based on final score and margin, home/road, and strength of opponent. The average game score is about 50. To get the daily power ratings, the last ten games scores are dumped into a weighted formula.)

Here are the Edgar standings for the year as of this morning, by conference. Edgar ranking to the left of the team. (The team's real ranking in the actual standings is in bold parenthesis)

EAST

1 CHI 56.81 (3)
2 DET 56.56 (1)
3 CLE 55.66 (2)
4 TOR 50.99 (6)
5 WAS 50.25 (4)
6 MIA 50.12 (5)
7 ORL 49.44 (10)
8 NJ 47.31 (7)

9 MIL 46.67 (13)
10 NY 46.31 (8)
11 IND 45.75 (9)
12 CHA 42.07 (14)
13 PHI 42.06 (12)
14 ATL 41.93 (11)
15 BOS 41.70 (15)

WEST
1 DAL 63.82 (1)
2 SAN 62.98 (3)
3 PHX 59.78 (2)
4 HOU 59.68 (5)
5 UTH 58.01 (4)
6 LAX 50.91 (7)
7 SAC 49.97 (11)
8 DEN 49.97 (6)

9 GS 48.83 (8)
10 LAC 48.40 (9)
11 MIN 46.97 (12)
12 SEA 46.68 (14)
13 NOK 45.21 (10)
14 POR 43.46 (13)
15 MEM 41.35 (15)

Average score in West: 51.73
Average score in East: 48.24

Oden-Durant Derby

1 MEM 41.35 (1)
2 BOS 41.70 (2)
3 ATL 41.93 (7)
4 PHI 42.06 (5)
5 CHA 42.07 (3)
6 POR 43.46 (8)

**Carlos019** · 03-21-07, 12:18 PM

Originally posted by Jay Edgar

Through Tuesday 03.20.07

5%-OFF TEAMS vs. MONEYLINE (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Tuesday, 3-7, +0.49u
(NJ, CHA, NY, PHI, MEM, LAC, GS, IND, MIN, POR)
YTD 262-481, +46.87u
(since the ASB: 53-116, -18.84u)

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Tuesday, 5-5, -0.25u
YTD 390-340 (.534) +33.00u
(since the ASB: 82-83 (.440) -5.15u)

POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES
1 HOU 67
2 CLE 66
3 DET 66
4 DAL 64
5 SAN 64
6 GS 61
7 DEN 61
8 UTH 59
9 MIA 57
10 ATL 54
11 MIL 54
12 CHI 53
13 WAS 51
14 BOS 50
15 PHX 50
16 NOK 48
17 ORL 48
18 LAC 48
19 SEA 47
20 NY 46
21 SAC 46
22 NJ 46
23 TOR 44
24 CHA 42
25 IND 40
26 POR 38
27 PHI 37
28 MIN 35
29 MEM 35
30 LAX 32

EDGAR LINES FOR 03.21.07
(favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

ATL 3.6/149 over MIA

TOR 3.0/138 over ORL

BOS 6.1/223 over CHA

MIL 6.0/216 over LAC

CLE 5.8/206 over DAL

SAN 9.3/432 over IND

SEA 4.5/167 over WAS

SAC 5.6/193 over MIN

STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
(At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

MIA +178, ATL -126

ORL +165, TOR -117

CHA +274, BOS -185

LAC +265, MIL -179

DAL +251, CLE -171

IND +586, SAN -335

WAS +201, SEA -140

MIN +234, SAC -161

If you would not mind, could you explain all of this for me?

**Carlos019** · 03-21-07, 12:36 PM

Nevermind, I just read your FAQ thread. I am going to try this out.

**Jay Edgar** · 03-21-07, 12:43 PM

Thanks for the interest, 019.

Just note the (lack of) success since the all-star break.

These numbers are not beating the books like they were earlier in the year.

**durito** · 03-21-07, 02:07 PM

Thanks for all your hard work on this Jay, I've really enjoyed following it.

**Carlos019** · 03-21-07, 02:18 PM

Jay, if you have the information available.... What is the longest loosing streak and winning streak your system has produced?

**Jay Edgar** · 03-21-07, 02:44 PM

It's actually been positive since opening night, but the real spurt was in late December and January, and the peak was February 9. (I was away Dec 28-31)

This is the net profit assuming a unit =100.

31-Oct 415
1-Nov 1361
3-Nov 2197
4-Nov 2300
5-Nov 2554
6-Nov 2459
7-Nov 2654
8-Nov 3538
10-Nov 3142
11-Nov 2807
12-Nov 2286
13-Nov 1868
14-Nov 1435
15-Nov 3013
17-Nov 2794
18-Nov 2120
19-Nov 1915
21-Nov 1939
22-Nov 2308
24-Nov 3643
25-Nov 2802
26-Nov 2592
27-Nov 3200
28-Nov 3925
29-Nov 4069
30-Nov 4069
1-Dec 3228
2-Dec 3240
3-Dec 3733
4-Dec 3165
5-Dec 3405
6-Dec 4145
7-Dec 4790
8-Dec 3352
9-Dec 3372
10-Dec 3634
11-Dec 3152
12-Dec 2728
13-Dec 2726
14-Dec 2729
15-Dec 3696
16-Dec 3745
17-Dec 4258
18-Dec 4321
19-Dec 4116
20-Dec 4427
21-Dec 4691
22-Dec 6364
23-Dec 5539
25-Dec 5744
26-Dec 5487
27-Dec 5455
1-Jan 5595
2-Jan 5585
3-Jan 5852
4-Jan 5547
5-Jan 5580
6-Jan 6204
7-Jan 5597
8-Jan 5557
9-Jan 5182
10-Jan 4924
11-Jan 5089
12-Jan 5762
13-Jan 5724
14-Jan 5724
15-Jan 6204
16-Jan 6364
17-Jan 6814
18-Jan 6609
19-Jan 6427
20-Jan 6906
21-Jan 6396
22-Jan 5986
23-Jan 4961
24-Jan 7134
25-Jan 7389
26-Jan 9040
27-Jan 9530
28-Jan 8685
29-Jan 9981
30-Jan 9976
31-Jan 10387
2-Feb 9728
3-Feb 10866
4-Feb 11196
5-Feb 10991
6-Feb 10782
7-Feb 10204
8-Feb 10404
9-Feb 11921
10-Feb 11056
11-Feb 11736
12-Feb 11121
13-Feb 11088
14-Feb 10084
15-Feb 10386
20-Feb 9766
21-Feb 11046
22-Feb 10781
23-Feb 10459
24-Feb 9434
25-Feb 9962
26-Feb 9142
27-Feb 8527
28-Feb 7955
1-Mar 7750
2-Mar 7847
3-Mar 7893
4-Mar 7893
5-Mar 8503
6-Mar 7459
7-Mar 7598
8-Mar 7358
9-Mar 7465
10-Mar 7584
11-Mar 6584
12-Mar 6808
13-Mar 7009
14-Mar 6444
15-Mar 6834
16-Mar 6788
17-Mar 8209
18-Mar 7921
19-Mar 7963
20-Mar 7987

**Carlos019** · 03-21-07, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by Jay Edgar

It's actually been positive since opening night, but the real spurt was in late December and January, and the peak was February 9. (I was away Dec 28-31)

This is the net profit assuming a unit =100.

31-Oct 415
1-Nov 1361
3-Nov 2197
4-Nov 2300
5-Nov 2554
6-Nov 2459
7-Nov 2654
8-Nov 3538
10-Nov 3142
11-Nov 2807
12-Nov 2286
13-Nov 1868
14-Nov 1435
15-Nov 3013
17-Nov 2794
18-Nov 2120
19-Nov 1915
21-Nov 1939
22-Nov 2308
24-Nov 3643
25-Nov 2802
26-Nov 2592
27-Nov 3200
28-Nov 3925
29-Nov 4069
30-Nov 4069
1-Dec 3228
2-Dec 3240
3-Dec 3733
4-Dec 3165
5-Dec 3405
6-Dec 4145
7-Dec 4790
8-Dec 3352
9-Dec 3372
10-Dec 3634
11-Dec 3152
12-Dec 2728
13-Dec 2726
14-Dec 2729
15-Dec 3696
16-Dec 3745
17-Dec 4258
18-Dec 4321
19-Dec 4116
20-Dec 4427
21-Dec 4691
22-Dec 6364
23-Dec 5539
25-Dec 5744
26-Dec 5487
27-Dec 5455
1-Jan 5595
2-Jan 5585
3-Jan 5852
4-Jan 5547
5-Jan 5580
6-Jan 6204
7-Jan 5597
8-Jan 5557
9-Jan 5182
10-Jan 4924
11-Jan 5089
12-Jan 5762
13-Jan 5724
14-Jan 5724
15-Jan 6204
16-Jan 6364
17-Jan 6814
18-Jan 6609
19-Jan 6427
20-Jan 6906
21-Jan 6396
22-Jan 5986
23-Jan 4961
24-Jan 7134
25-Jan 7389
26-Jan 9040
27-Jan 9530
28-Jan 8685
29-Jan 9981
30-Jan 9976
31-Jan 10387
2-Feb 9728
3-Feb 10866
4-Feb 11196
5-Feb 10991
6-Feb 10782
7-Feb 10204
8-Feb 10404
9-Feb 11921
10-Feb 11056
11-Feb 11736
12-Feb 11121
13-Feb 11088
14-Feb 10084
15-Feb 10386
20-Feb 9766
21-Feb 11046
22-Feb 10781
23-Feb 10459
24-Feb 9434
25-Feb 9962
26-Feb 9142
27-Feb 8527
28-Feb 7955
1-Mar 7750
2-Mar 7847
3-Mar 7893
4-Mar 7893
5-Mar 8503
6-Mar 7459
7-Mar 7598
8-Mar 7358
9-Mar 7465
10-Mar 7584
11-Mar 6584
12-Mar 6808
13-Mar 7009
14-Mar 6444
15-Mar 6834
16-Mar 6788
17-Mar 8209
18-Mar 7921
19-Mar 7963
20-Mar 7987

But as far as the picks go against the spread. What is the longest loosing streak and winning streak? The most games lost in a row and the most games you have won in a row?

**Jay Edgar** · 03-21-07, 03:00 PM

It's played 742 games so far, several every night. I'm not sure how you'd compute 'streaks' on a game-to-game basis in that environment.

The list above shows you where it stood in net units after every night. I think we have probably had streaks of up to about 4 winning nights in a row and up to about 3 losing nights in a row, if that helps. You can tell for sure by looking at the daily totals in that column.

Here is the same chart for pointspread plays only:

31-Oct 100
1-Nov 390
3-Nov 685
4-Nov 775
5-Nov 865
6-Nov 750
7-Nov 840
8-Nov 1235
10-Nov 1115
11-Nov 1200
12-Nov 880
13-Nov 670
14-Nov 450
15-Nov 845
17-Nov 615
18-Nov 380
19-Nov 275
21-Nov 555
22-Nov 740
24-Nov 1235
25-Nov 905
26-Nov 895
27-Nov 1195
28-Nov 1485
29-Nov 1365
30-Nov 1465
1-Dec 1440
2-Dec 1735
3-Dec 1935
4-Dec 1615
5-Dec 1605
6-Dec 1690
7-Dec 1990
8-Dec 1350
9-Dec 1225
10-Dec 1110
11-Dec 785
12-Dec 675
13-Dec 645
14-Dec 740
15-Dec 1330
16-Dec 1410
17-Dec 1710
18-Dec 1695
19-Dec 1590
20-Dec 1770
21-Dec 1870
22-Dec 2150
23-Dec 1825
25-Dec 1925
26-Dec 1805
27-Dec 1685
1-Jan 1680
2-Jan 1665
3-Jan 2060
4-Jan 1955
5-Jan 1930
6-Jan 2325
7-Jan 2005
8-Jan 1895
9-Jan 1880
10-Jan 1655
11-Jan 1650
12-Jan 1840
13-Jan 1925
14-Jan 2025
15-Jan 2315
16-Jan 2310
17-Jan 2390
18-Jan 2385
19-Jan 2560
20-Jan 2750
21-Jan 2640
22-Jan 2725
23-Jan 2300
24-Jan 2995
25-Jan 3195
26-Jan 3680
27-Jan 3970
28-Jan 3650
29-Jan 3945
30-Jan 4040
31-Jan 4220
2-Feb 4095
3-Feb 4380
4-Feb 4480
5-Feb 4355
6-Feb 4345
7-Feb 3915
8-Feb 4015
9-Feb 4405
10-Feb 4185
11-Feb 4475
12-Feb 4160
13-Feb 4250
14-Feb 3715
15-Feb 3815
20-Feb 3690
21-Feb 4190
22-Feb 4285
23-Feb 3960
24-Feb 3435
25-Feb 3725
26-Feb 3505
27-Feb 3190
28-Feb 2760
1-Mar 2755
2-Mar 2840
3-Mar 2930
4-Mar 3225
5-Mar 3215
6-Mar 2685
7-Mar 2870
8-Mar 2865
9-Mar 2950
10-Mar 3040
11-Mar 2610
12-Mar 2600
13-Mar 2990
14-Mar 2865
15-Mar 2965
16-Mar 3045
17-Mar 3340
18-Mar 3330
19-Mar 3325
20-Mar 3300

**Carlos019** · 03-21-07, 03:09 PM

Allright, thanks Jay.

**Jay Edgar** · 03-22-07, 08:00 AM

% TEAM ATS ML
6 SEA LOSS -135
7 MIN WIN 265
8 MIL LOSS -155
11 CHA WIN 375
13 IND LOSS -100
25 ATL LOSS -100
28 CLE LOSS -100

Bad break to have to include MIL in the grading, but those are the rules I set up.

Through Wednesday 03.21.07

5%-OFF TEAMS vs. MONEYLINE (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Wednesday, 2-5, +0.50u
(ATL, CHA, MIL, CLE, IND, SEA, MIN)
YTD 264-486, +47.27u
(since the ASB: 55-121, -18.34u)

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Wednesday, 2-5, -3.25u
YTD 392-345 (.531) +29.75u
(since the ASB: 84-88 (.488) -8.40u)