Jay Edgar NBA, Friday 03.16.07

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  • Jay Edgar
    SBR MVP
    • 03-08-06
    • 1576
    #1
    Jay Edgar NBA, Friday 03.16.07
    Through Thursday 03.15.07

    5%-OFF TEAMS vs. MONEYLINE (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
    Thursday, 1-0, +2.90u
    (MIL)
    YTD 251-461, +38.69u
    (since the ASB: 42-96, -27.02u)

    SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
    Thursday, 1-0, +1.00u
    YTD 373-327 (.533) +29.65u
    (since the ASB: 65-70 (.481) -8.50u)

    POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES
    1 SAN 71
    2 CLE 67
    3 DAL 65
    4 MIA 65
    5 UTH 65
    6 CHI 62
    7 PHX 61
    8 DET 60
    9 GS 54
    10 MIL 54
    11 HOU 53
    12 DEN 52
    13 TOR 52
    14 PHI 52
    15 POR 49
    16 ORL 47
    17 WAS 47
    18 NJ 46
    19 BOS 46
    20 NY 46
    21 LAC 45
    22 SAC 44
    23 ATL 44
    24 SEA 44
    25 NOK 41
    26 CHA 38
    27 MIN 36
    28 MEM 35
    29 LAX 31
    30 IND 31

    EDGAR LINES FOR 03.16.07
    (favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

    CHA 3.0/138 over LAC

    PHI 1.8/118 over UTH

    TOR 2.7/130 over HOU

    NY 3.9/157 over NOK

    MIA 6.2/224 over SAC

    DAL 4.7/171 over BOS

    PHX 3.6/148 over DET

    LAX 0.6/105 over POR

    GS 6.0/215 over MIN


    STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
    (At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

    LAC +164, CHA -116

    UTH +140 PHI +100

    HOU +154, TOR -109

    NOK +189, NY -132

    SAC +276, MIA -186

    BOS +205, DAL -143

    DET +176, PHX -124

    POR +124, LAX +113

    MIN +263, GS -178
    Last edited by Jay Edgar; 03-16-07, 07:16 AM.
    Tags: None
    • Jay Edgar
      SBR MVP
      • 03-08-06
      • 1576
      #2
      Numbers complete for Friday.
      GL


      Looks as if the method may be on the Raptors at home for the first time since Jan 19th.

      And on the Pistons, anyhwere, for only the sixth time this season.
        Comment
        • Jay Edgar
          SBR MVP
          • 03-08-06
          • 1576
          #3
          Meanwhile, back in the NBA, the MFNYKnicks still do what they do.

          NY +1 -- no good
            Comment
            • Jay Edgar
              SBR MVP
              • 03-08-06
              • 1576
              #4
              Every game on the board qualified for a play.
              That's probably not the best way to run a railroad.

              One of the projects for the summer is going to be to pore over the 06-07 data and develop a way to throw some of these qualifying plays overboard, or at least develop an objective method for weighting them.


              % TEAM ATS ML
              5 MIA WIN 100
              7 MIN LOSS -100
              8 DET WIN 200
              13 NY LOSS -100
              15 TOR LOSS -100
              16 CHA LOSS -100
              18 PHI WIN 174
              24 POR WIN -100
              29 BOS WIN -100

              Through Friday 03.16.07

              5%-OFF TEAMS vs. MONEYLINE (risking 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
              Friday, 3-6, -1.26u
              (CHA, PHI, TOR, NY, MIA, BOD, DET, POR, MIN)
              YTD 254-467, +37.43u
              (since the ASB: 45-102, -28.28u)

              SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
              Friday, 5-4, +0.80u
              YTD 378-331 (.533) +30.45u
              (since the ASB: 70-74 (.486) -7.70u)
                Comment
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