Ranger_dan's Smart Money Plays

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  • RANGERDAN
    SBR Rookie
    • 03-06-07
    • 13

    #1
    Ranger_dan's Smart Money Plays
    Each dayI will post a minimum of 4 plays. They will fit the following categories:
    Smart Money (SM)- the game with the largest difference between the spread % and ML% regardless of the line move (unless the line move is 2 + in the right direction). Spread % must be less than 40% with over 1,500 bets. Dont play dogs of 14+. 'Baseball/Hockey moves: each point move equals .05 compared to Basketball/Football. ML % is set at 40% in these sports.

    Wise Guy (WG)- - the lowest overall spread %'s less than 37% with over 1,500 wagers and with atleast a minimal of a .5 point move in the opposite direction (unnatural direction) + ML % must be higher than spead % for basketball/football. Add 50 BONUS POINTS for Home Team BOLD = Home {Formula = (40 - ovrll % x #bets )(ML%-37 x # bets) x line move} 'Baseball/Hockey moves: each point move equals .05 compared to Basketball/Football
    Square Play (SP) - - the lowest overall %'s with over 1,500 bets and with no more than a .5 point line move in the correct direction {Formula = (40 - ovrll% x #bets )(ML%-40 x # bets)} Add 50 BONUS POINTS for Home Team BOLD = Home ``Baseball/Hockey moves: each point move equals .05 compared to Basketball/Football. Must be less than 5 point move in the correct direction to qualify for SP.

    Statfox (SF) - Play the most probable % based on the difference between the L 5 years % with this year % listed on Statfox excluding all erronous stats (I.e. Days fo the . week, odd %, Moneylines) Formula= TY % - L 5 yr% x .10/100

    I hope to make some money using this sytem. I have ben using it for a while. I hope you will come along for the ride and make some money with me!
  • austintx05
    SBR MVP
    • 08-24-06
    • 3156

    #2
    So you fade the public?
    Comment
    • RANGERDAN
      SBR Rookie
      • 03-06-07
      • 13

      #3
      absolutely! I fade the pub. When everyone says do one thing I bet the other way!
      Comment
      • austintx05
        SBR MVP
        • 08-24-06
        • 3156

        #4
        wow...what a great system...
        Comment
        • AoTiKo
          SBR Rookie
          • 03-01-07
          • 19

          #5
          So what were your picks tonight? How did you do?
          Comment
          • BuddyBear
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 08-10-05
            • 7233

            #6
            I use to be a big proponent of fading the public when I first started getting serious about this, and I still would much rather be betting against the public than with them. However, I'd like to think that I've evolved as a bettor and handicapper. For what's it worth, fading the public will get you about 50/50 by season's end. It seems very simple and is but you aren't going to beat the books by it.

            Instead, handicapping and betting is a combination of things like getting the best number, technical aspects of sports betting, line movement, breaking down matchups and isolating key variables that demonstrate strong relationships, getting information before the linesmaker does, etc...

            Don't get me wrong, lot of public plays are square plays but it's not suffice to just say I am going to fade the public. Way too simple a method to win long-term....
            Comment
            • raiders72002
              SBR MVP
              • 03-06-07
              • 3368

              #7
              I agree a lot with Buddy Bear. Square plays use to be a gold mine but the old days are gone. I still fade the public at weak lines.

              Rangerdan- You have to love it when the public is on one side and the line move is in the other direction.

              Sometimes I do get folled by line moves is when 2 different Syndicates are on opposite sides.
              Comment
              • RANGERDAN
                SBR Rookie
                • 03-06-07
                • 13

                #8
                I went 3-1-1 last night with the following plays.

                Indiana +4 (PUSH)
                TCU +4 (WIN)
                N. Texas -2 (WIN)
                NO +5.5 (LOSS)
                Portland +6 (WIN)
                Comment
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