Basketball Parlay of the Day - Wednesday, 2/28/07

LT Profits · 02-28-07, 01:05 AM

Today is the last day of the February contest. Good Luck!

Code:

STANDINGS 
[B]Name            W       L       W/P     Units[/B]
babaoriley 	4	6	1	53
Jay Edgar	4	6	1	53
LT Profits	8	17	0	38
Hemlock21	2	2	0	32
cadillacb	3	5	0	28
Dave11486	2	3	0	22
jhippe77     	1	1	0	16
Wassymac  	1	1	0	16
Hulu        	2	4	0	12
EaglesPhan36	3	8	1	7
milton50     	1	2	0	6
DoctorJ    	3	8	0	-2
Dbldown11	1	3	0	-4
mapletree 	1	3	0	-4
bigpig19      	0	1	0	-10
Dark Horse	0	1	0	-10
Tchocky  	0	1	0	-10
durito      	3	10	1	-13
Razz    	4	12	0	-16
DarkProdigy	0	2	0	-20
freeneasy	0	2	0	-20
img94      	0	2	0	-20
Peyton2Marvin	0	2	0	-20
tnkwilli	0	2	0	-20
Willie Bee 	2	8	0	-28
imastud2  	0	3	0	-30
rjt721      	1	9	1	-55
Pegasus 	1	10	0	-74


GAME-BY-GAME 
[B]Name            W       L       P        Pct[/B]
Hemlock21	6	2	0	75.0%
Wassymac  	3	1	0	75.0%
Dbldown11	5	3	0	62.5%
babaoriley 	13	8	1	61.9%
Dave11486	6	4	0	60.0%
DoctorJ    	13	9	0	59.1%
EaglesPhan36	13	9	2	59.1%
Hulu        	7	5	0	58.3%
Jay Edgar	12	9	1	57.1%
cadillacb	9	7	0	56.3%
LT Profits	24	24	2	50.0%
Razz    	16	16	0	50.0%
Willie Bee 	10	10	0	50.0%
mapletree 	4	4	0	50.0%
img94      	2	2	0	50.0%
jhippe77     	2	2	0	50.0%
Dark Horse	1	1	0	50.0%
Tchocky  	1	1	0	50.0%
durito      	12	14	4	46.2%
rjt721      	9	12	1	42.9%
milton50     	2	3	1	40.0%
Pegasus 	8	14	0	36.4%
imastud2  	2	4	0	33.3%
DarkProdigy	1	3	0	25.0%
freeneasy	1	3	0	25.0%
Peyton2Marvin	1	3	0	25.0%
bigpig19      	0	2	0	0.0%
tnkwilli	0	3	1	0.0%

LT Profits · 02-28-07, 03:31 PM

ATLANTA HAWKS +6: New Orleans may be a sparkling 17-11 ATS at home this season, but then again the Hornets have hardly ever been asked to lay this many points either. The bottom line is that most of their damage has come as home underdogs, as the Bees are actually getting slightly outscored by an average of -0.3 points per game in all of their home contests. We simply do not trust them giving this many points to an Atlanta team that is a solid 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games.

GEORGIA/KENTUCKY OVER 138: Kentucky is averaging 72.8 points on an impressive 48.0 percent shooting from the field this season, and they will not hesitate to run up the score here after losing to the Bulldogs 78-69 in Athens last month. Georgia has also been impressive offensively averaging 75.4 points per game overall, and although we feel that the Wildcats get their revenge here, we do feel that the Dawgs will score enough points to push this total safely OVER.

babaoriley · 02-28-07, 04:11 PM

OK, so I could coast through today and settle for a probable tie for first place (ahem, looking your way Mr. Edgar---kidding) or I could go for the solid win. I wouldn't be much of a gambler if I didn't put my balls on the line, especially considering this contest has no monetary consequences so I'm gunnin' for it. Plus, I happen to like these plays. As evidenced by my avatar, one of these games will make me completely and totally irrational (regardless of outcome) tonight and the following prop bets apply:
+/- 2.5 Bottles of wine drank directly out of the bottle by myself (i.e. no help from the wife)

+/- 3.5 Number of times the remote control is thrown into a wall.

+/- .5 (-400) Number of times my wife asks for a divorce.

+/- 172.5 Number of times I stab my Acie Law IV homemade voodoo doll during tonight's game.

So, for the record, I'd go with Over 2.5 bottles of wine consumed, Under on remote control throws (since we have a 12 day old baby girl, I've settled down a tad), and hopefully Under on Number of times asked for a divorce. Oh, and I'd pound that Over on the Acie Law IV voodoo doll (that thing should get steamed up to 240 or so).

OK, now that we got that out of the way...

Texas -2
You want objective analysis, go elsewhere. Quite simply, this Texas team is playing out of their mind lately. As a Longhorn alum, I can't even begin to describe how crazy the Erwin center is going to be tonight. On one hand, you have a football-first city riled up over having a legitimate phenom (Durant) playing for them, surrounded by one of the most exciting PG's in the country (Augustin) and dead-eye outside shooter (Abrams), and two other valuable ballers. Oh yeah, and they're all FRESHMEN except Abrams (soph). You have a city that may be witnessing the final regular season home game by Durant and the game happens to be against your most hated rival. I can't begin to describe this game rationally. I just can't... The Horns need to figure out a way to avoid any prolonged FG droughts (as they suffered during the beginning of that 2nd half against OU) as they need this crowd to be pumping. The defense has buckled down as of late and will need to continue to force bad shots and turnovers. Only thing I'm even possibly worried about is simply getting outcoached. I'm all over the Texas first half -.5, and I am all over Texas -2. I wish that could be my parlay, but since we need two totals, or full game sides...

UNLV -2.5 (was going to go with Duke -6, but I'm going with UNLV)

while I'm also playing Duke at -6, I don't want to hinge my parlay on one of the worst Duke teams in recent memory. Cameron alone is worth that 6, but a stinker by the entire team could sink them... So, while there are about 15 other plays I like tonight, I'm arbitrarily picking UNLV over New Mexico. I also like Providence, South Carolina, and even Houston (sorry IMG) at +4 against UCF , but I'm rolling with the Runnin' Rebs. I simply feel they outclass New Mexico, obviously need the win, have the (gulp) maturity to pull this one out... They are an iffy road team, but then again, who isn't. I'm not in love with this pick, but I like it enough and I'm going with the better team laying a bucket and a hook.

Willie Bee · 02-28-07, 04:23 PM

Originally posted by babaoriley

I wouldn't be much of a gambler if I didn't put my balls on the line...

...and the game happens to be against your most hated rival. I can't begin to describe this game rationally. I just can't...

You are da' man, Baba

Need to add, however, that I wouldn't really be much of an Aggie if I didn't accept your throwdown and back my Fightin' Texas Aggies tonight

Glad to hear you say the game is against 'your most hated rival,' after a few Horns I know last year sloughed off the importance/rivalry between the two on the gridiron. We at least agree on the fact we can't cap this game rationally. Best of luck to you, though I hope we beat the snot outta t.u.

Texas A&M +2 at Texas
See 'analysis' above.

Vanderbilt +1 at South Carolina
Gamecocks haven't done that good of a job this year covering spreads at home, and Vandy is 8-5 ATS when playing the role of underdogs. Commodores can smell win #20, and it smells like road cock

babaoriley · 02-28-07, 04:49 PM

I hope your bankroll grows tonight Willie Bee... I just hope that it grows IN SPITE of, not BECAUSE OF, the UT-A&M game. And those Horns' backers that sloughed off the rivalry aspect with A&M probably used the whole "when was the last time A&M beat UT?" reasoning. Now, you can say, when was the last time UT beat A&M... And yes, you can take solace in the fact that, for me at least, Texas A&M will ALWAYS be my most hated (yet admired) rival. I legitimately loathe Oklahoma, mainly due to the behavior of their fans, who can't quite grasp why it's foolish to throw the "Horns Down" gesture at any football game, regardless of whether UT is even playing or not. That really stokes me. "Hey, we're playing K. State on national TV. Let's throw the Horns Down hand gesture to show everyone how much we hate Texas!" What douchewads... Best of luck, sir. Let's get it on.

Pegasus · 02-28-07, 05:15 PM

Temple -6
Dayton: 1-7 ATS as a road underdog
Temple: 9-0 ATS at home in February

St. Louis -14
Richmond: 5-16 ATS in February
St. Louis: 9-0 ATS off a SU loss / ATS win

LT Profits · 02-28-07, 05:51 PM

Guys, there WILL be something at stake in the March contest starting tomorrow. See seperate thread for details and rules.

rjt721 · 02-28-07, 06:50 PM

Southern Miss. -1.5: So. Miss. 13-4 ATS, including 6-1 ATS at home. So. Miss. also features one of the better backcourts in the conference. Two evenly matched teams, I'm taking the homecourt.

Georgia/Kentucky Over 138: I agree with LT on this one. Georgia likes to get up and down the court and shoot early in the shot clock. This will give Kentucky more possessions and opportunities to score, further them allowing them to exploit the huge advantage they have with Randolph Morris inside. Morris was in foul trouble in the first meeting between these two. If he can stay on the floor, UK should put up a lot of points against a soft interior defense.

durito · 02-28-07, 07:06 PM

Chicago Bulls -12: This is a lot of points to lay, but I'll take my shot here anyway. I'd normally favor the Bulls by about 11 here, but they are +10.2 pts at home and Golden St. is -10.7 pts on the road. The warriors got blown out last night at Milwaukee and are just 4-11ATS the 2nd night of back to backs.

Washington Wizards -1.5: Washington lost 3 in a row on the road and will be without Caron Butler tonight, but this line is still too low. They should get back on track with a win here.

tevari · 02-28-07, 07:15 PM

MIA +2.5: I expect the Heat to play exceptional D, like they did a couple games ago in Cleveland, the Wizards are also banged up beyond belief, and came off a rough road loss last night in Jersey.

Memphis +4.5: With Deron Williams as questionable for the game, I expect the Grizzlies to keep it close the entire way, and predict a huge game from Gasol.

durito · 02-28-07, 07:29 PM

Originally posted by tevari

MIA +2.5: I expect the Heat to play exceptional D, like they did a couple games ago in Cleveland, the Wizards are also banged up beyond belief, and came off a rough road loss last night in Jersey.

Memphis +4.5: With Deron Williams as questionable for the game, I expect the Grizzlies to keep it close the entire way, and predict a huge game from Gasol.

miami allready had a pretty big lead by the time of this post

tevari · 02-28-07, 07:34 PM

lol @ the suns losing by 12 to philly

dave11486 · 02-28-07, 08:22 PM

Texas A&M +1

The bottomline is A&M is a better all around team. So many people are Durant crazy and are forgetting how good the Aggies really are.
I'm not going to say something stupid like tonight Texas A&M is gonna lay down the Law, but they sure should win.

New Mexico +2

I like fading the UNLV Rebels for tonight, otherwise I have no reasoning. I just think the line is trying to get people to bite, but I may be wrong.

babaoriley · 02-28-07, 08:33 PM

Originally posted by dave11486

Texas A&M +1

The bottomline is A&M is a better all around team. So many people are Durant crazy and are forgetting how good the Aggies really are.
I'm not going to say something stupid like tonight Texas A&M is gonna lay down the Law, but they sure should win.

New Mexico +2

I like fading the UNLV Rebels for tonight, otherwise I have no reasoning. I just think the line is trying to get people to bite, but I may be wrong.

I agree with your statement about that line being bait, but when it comes to this time of year, I'll take the team jockeying for tourney position. Also, I think of all UT bettors on here, if you look at all of my posts, I have downplayed the Durant-factor in every single pick. I think the keys to this game are Mason and James for Texas. Likewise, Augustin and Abrams need to continue to play over their heads. Durant will get him, but if they get in the mode of feeding Durant non-stop, they will lose.

dave11486 · 02-28-07, 10:39 PM

Originally posted by babaoriley

I agree with your statement about that line being bait, but when it comes to this time of year, I'll take the team jockeying for tourney position. Also, I think of all UT bettors on here, if you look at all of my posts, I have downplayed the Durant-factor in every single pick. I think the keys to this game are Mason and James for Texas. Likewise, Augustin and Abrams need to continue to play over their heads. Durant will get him, but if they get in the mode of feeding Durant non-stop, they will lose.

Oh babaoriley my short read was not a shot at anyone specifically. I just believe everytime a line comes out for Texas the line is long because people immediately think Kevin Durant is on that team.

dave11486 · 02-28-07, 10:41 PM

I didn't notice I was the opposite on both your plays, but good luck.

babaoriley · 03-01-07, 12:31 AM

Edgar, you can thank your lucky stars that I didn't update the odds on my wager... I actually made my damn wagers from my International Business class, including the following wager which would have resulted in a Push/Win and an overall victory in this crapper. Whatever, I'll take solace in the fact that I won cash money Below was a W/W/Push parlay that I placed:
2) BET ID=202674287
Parlay (3 Teams) 02/28/07 20:20 ET
xxxxx/xxxxxxx (paid xxxxx) Result: Wager Won
TexasA&M 96
Texas 98 02/28/07 (21:05 ET)
Texas -1.5

UNLV 85
NewMexico 83 02/28/07 (22:00 ET)
UNLV -2

WakeForest 66
NCState 73 02/28/07 (21:05 ET)
Under 145.5

Congrats on the victory, though had I updated my bets, I would be crowned:

Here is another post from the coachella.com message board that I posted at 4:36PM. Not sure that any of this matters, but it matters to my own self esteem:
Ok, so tonight is the big Texas vs Texas A&M rematch. I've never seen nor heard of Austin being this fired up for a basketball game (and i went to school here for 6 years). For the uninitiated, Texas has a freshman forward named Kevin Durant, who, when all is said and done, has a ceiling that really cannot be stated. He's absolutely ceiling-less. Think Kobe & Lebron type of talent (possibly). The catch is, he's a 99.999% probability to go to the NBA as one of the top 2 picks in next year's draft, so the city of Austin is relishing what could quite well be the last home game of his career. Making the game more dramatic is that Texas is playing its nemesis, a Texas A&M team that also happens to be ranked 6th in the country. There are a couple certainties tonight, and a couple intriguing possibilities:

1) I WILL be developing a sudden illness that excuses me from my Int. Business class at approximately 7:35 PM tonight... That leaves just enough time for me to sprint to my car, drive 90 on H-10 and get home in time to open a bottle of wine and sit down for tipoff. Honestly, if I had to force myself to projectile vomit in the middle of the classroom, then AI would be able to do it with ease. Luckily, I've had an Upper Respiratory Infection, so this should be cake. I'll just start coughing frantically, make a half assed attempt to get water, then come back, cough until I get a concerned look, then I'm out.

2) My daughter, Harper, WILL be dressed in full Longhorn attire. Her college tuition is riding on Texas covering a 1.5 point spread. Since her arrival, Texas is a perfect 2-0 against the spread and straight up (of course, by chance, she's been wearing her Horns gear... Yeah sure, by chance...).

3) A remote control may be broken by jumping out of my hands and throwing itself at my wall.

4) There's a very remote chance my wife will ask me for a divorce, though I've also let her put a small wager on Texas. Works like a charm most of the time. She's still giddy about winning $10 on a $20 bet for "The Departed" to take home best picture...

5) I will NOT come on this board at any time tonight for any reason. Considering the Pediatrician recommended that I not breathe on the baby (even suggested that I get a mask to wear) I will also not be holding the baby. This opens up the possibility for 2-4 bottles of wine to be consumed. If that number happens to trend towards the 4, I will also be sleeping on the couch, possibly not voluntarily.

6) I will NOT be surprised when this thread is clogged with a bunch of trash-talking shittiness, trite attempts at humor, and otherwise dickish behavior... So have at it...