[blanco]

I posted about this in my bobcats +4.5 thread but that thread has become a mess.

Basically, regardless of if you don't think bobcats +4.5 has much or any value, there is still good value in bobcats +4.5/5 if you parlay it with the under.

- The Bobcats haven't gone over 203 all season when covering +4.5, even in wins, with the exception of one win against the wizards which is an outlier because the wizards are a joke.

-The warriors have only score 100+ and lost twice all season, which were against the thunder and the nuggets, who again can be considered outliers because their games go into the 100s on both sides very frequently.

-If the bobcats are going to cover 4.5 tonight, it's going to come from the defensive end. And it's not like they're going to blow out the warriors even if they do cover, so we don't need to worry about a 110-95 game.

-Expect the bobcats to come out with TONS of energy on the defensive end tonight. They were extremely embarrassed about their defense against the spurs and have had a day off to get fired up about it. You better believe defense is going to be their main focal point tonight. Kemba Walker is going to be going all out trying to slow down Stephen Curry. This is one of the bobcats more winnable games all month (which says a lot about their schedule) and they know this. They don't want to be stuck on 7 wins until january.

DECEMBER
VS LAC
VS ATL
VS ORL
@LAL
@PHX
@GSW
@DEN
VS MIA
@ BKN
vs NOH
@ CHI

-I'm not saying the Bobcats will for sure cover tonight, but if they do, there will be a strong correlation to the under. So by parlaying the two, you are minimizing your investment and maximizing your payout. If you care about the long-term expected value of your bets and not just your win %, this should be strongly considered.

[coach_p71]

Great write up! Thank you for taking the time to do this, it helps on making a smart bet.

[blanco]

Bump for the night crowd