Computer Model 15.0... NBA so far has been almost as tough as NFL... picks...

**usma1992** · 03-02-24, 05:24 AM

Starting to believe ... I am close... 4-1 yesterday...

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
3:10 PM	ATLANTA	117	BROOKLYN	121		238	-2	220.0		Too Close	Over U

**usma1992** · 03-03-24, 11:36 AM

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:10 PM	INDIANA	129	SAN ANTONIO	114	243	6.5	242.5	Away Minus F	Too Close
7:10 PM	NEW YORK	108	CLEVELAND	118	226	-6.5	212.5	Too Close	Over U

Cautiously optimistic... with new tightened algorithms. But ... I still caution you. Went 5-2 yesterday... in College Basketball.

Dave
THE TEACH

**usma1992** · 03-04-24, 11:54 AM

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:40 PM	MEMPHIS	106	BROOKLYN	119		225	-9.5	206.0		Too Close	Over U

**usma1992** · 03-04-24, 03:18 PM

Question for the board if you are out there... After the All Star break... does the NBA end up playing defense. I notice the point totals have dramatically decreased and my projections are way high. I am considering making alterations.

I am curious... if anyone has found this to be true.

Thank you in advance...

Dave

**TheGoldenGoose** · 03-04-24, 07:57 PM

NBA Unders have been killing it lately. Your side picks have been doing extremely well. Keep’m coming !!!

**RunBookRun** · 03-07-24, 11:00 AM

this is awesome man.. great work! keep it up. I am trying same.. every loss.. go back and tinker. If major change in capping, then close trial and begin new. Beginning new trial this evening.

**usma1992** · 03-07-24, 01:46 PM

I decided to change my model from a linear model to a quadratic model. I can't get the consistency I want in the NBA with a linear model. Spent several hours making appropriate adjustments and plan to begin again.

Here is the pick for tonight...

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE		TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U		SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:10 PM	BROOKLYN	114	DETROIT	111		225	2.5	216.0		Too Close	Over F

**RunBookRun** · 03-07-24, 07:03 PM

.. would love to see images of what you're looking at.. I have Nets over the Pistons early in this one.. but would like to know more about how final score is determined. interesting work.

**IBetYou** · 03-07-24, 08:46 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

Question for the board if you are out there... After the All Star break... does the NBA end up playing defense. I notice the point totals have dramatically decreased and my projections are way high. I am considering making alterations.

I am curious... if anyone has found this to be true.

Thank you in advance...

Dave

Don't think it's anything to do with that. The AS game was ridiculously high scoring and was a major talking point. NBA is all about entertainment and pleasing their tv partners. They want the scoring down and Joe Dumars is making it happen.

**IBetYou** · 03-07-24, 08:49 PM

Just as an aside, if you watch an NBA game and a FIBA game one after the other you'll see a huge difference in the block/ charge call. This is where the NBA have gone soft. Used to be guys like Battier/ Haslem/ Collison being experts at taking charges but it was ultimately deemed not aesthetically pleasing. The dilletante fan doesn't want to see it? Fine, every drive a layup or a drive & kick for a three.

**usma1992** · 03-08-24, 08:34 AM

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:40 PM	MINNESOTA	109	CLEVELAND	111	220	-1.5	207.5	Too Close	Over U
7:40 PM	ORLANDO	111	NEW YORK	110	221	1.5	206.5	Too Close	Over U
8:10 PM	ATLANTA	115	MEMPHIS	112	226	3	215.5	Too Close	Over U
10:10 PM	MILWAUKEE	118	LA LAKERS	113	231	1	232.0	Away Minus F	Too Close

**usma1992** · 03-09-24, 01:11 PM

Trying a new algorithm... I need it to work in the past and the future... NBA is killing me...

I feel like I am close ... to figuring it out than the results role in and I really I have no clue. Spent 4 hours this morning on it.

Dave

**RunBookRun** · 03-09-24, 01:45 PM

similar to my process. after losses, I go back and try it out on previous blind matchups where i am not aware of outcome (or don't remember). Waiting for games to test results is tedious if not excruciating. The problem is variables, apparently infinite, sometimes appears impossible to create one size fits all. Difficult to determine which algorithm to employ. I believe 7 in a row successfully proves an algorithm is reliably tested.