Starting Today... 10 Day Model Try...

**usma1992** · 12-22-23, 06:13 AM

1-1 A lucky 1-1. Spread bets on NBA killing me lately. Wizards are hot despite their record. They have beat the spread 5 or games in a row. Tonight's games. College went 4-2.

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:10 PM	TORONTO	102	PHILADELPHIA	128	230	-8.5	230.0	Too Close	Too Close
7:40 PM	DENVER	125	BROOKLYN	110	236	4.5	230.5	Too Close	Too Close
8:10 PM	DALLAS	102	HOUSTON	127	230	-9	225.0	Home Minus	Too Close
10:10 PM	PHOENIX	109	SACRAMENTO	120	229	-4	244.5	Too Close	Too Close

**usma1992** · 12-23-23, 06:20 AM

Day 2 went well on both programs. Houston crushed Dallas and I went 2-1 on NCAAB. How JMU a top 20 team leads by 11 at half then gives it all back only to win by 14 blows me away.... anyway. No bets today.

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
12:40 PM	MILWAUKEE	122	NEW YORK	120	241	2.5	244.0	Too Close	Too Close
7:40 PM	UTAH	111	TORONTO	126	237	-5.5	230.0	Too Close	Too Close
8:10 PM	CLEVELAND	106	CHICAGO	119	225	-5	218.0	Too Close	Too Close
8:10 PM	LA LAKERS	107	OKLAHOMA CITY	125	232	-4	238.0	Too Close	Too Close

**usma1992** · 12-24-23, 11:52 AM

Still 2-1 no games last night. Several today.

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
12:10 PM	MILWAUKEE	123	NEW YORK	119	242	3.5	241.0	Too Close	Over
2:40 PM	GOLDEN STATE	106	DENVER	125	230	-6.5	233.5	Too Close	Under
5:10 PM	BOSTON	127	LA LAKERS	110	237	3	234.5	Too Close	Over
8:10 PM	PHILADELPHIA	116	MIAMI	108	224	1.5	225.5	Too Close	Too Close
10:40 PM	DALLAS	114	PHOENIX	122	235	-5	235.0	Too Close	Over

**usma1992** · 12-26-23, 09:00 AM

Great day 4. 3-1 and the one loss was by .5. Golden State screwed me. This counts as Day 4 since there were no games Christmas Eve... Current record is 5-2. Not bad to start. Decided to condense the spreadsheet to just the picks. College is stuck at 6-5 ... No games again today.

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
8:10 PM	UTAH	126	SAN ANTONIO	118	244	3	241.5	Away Minus	Over
8:10 PM	INDIANA	113	HOUSTON	122	235	-3	237.5	Home Minus	Too Close
8:10 PM	ATLANTA	115	CHICAGO	124	240	-1.5	234.5	Too Close	Over
10:10 PM	SACRAMENTO	125	PORTLAND	109	233	7.5	237.5	Away Minus	Too Close

**usma1992** · 12-27-23, 10:38 AM

2-3 Last Night. Chicago should have gone over but had a terrible first quarter. Portland game I was way off on. Not close. Utah game pretty much perfect both ways. Houston game could have gone either way. Regardless 7-5 so far. Not great. Not terrible... but winning. Working on upgrades to the model constantly but won't change anything until end of 10 days.

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:10 PM	PHILADELPHIA	110	ORLANDO	110	219	-2	227.5	Too Close	Too Close
7:10 PM	TORONTO	132	WASHINGTON	112	245	6.5	239.0	Too Close	Over
7:40 PM	MILWAUKEE	126	BROOKLYN	120	246	4	240.5	Too Close	Over
8:10 PM	NEW YORK	111	OKLAHOMA CITY	120	230	-3	240.0	Too Close	Too Close
8:10 PM	PHOENIX	107	HOUSTON	111	218	2.5	225.5	Too Close	Too Close
8:40 PM	CLEVELAND	115	DALLAS	117	231	-3.5	230.5	Too Close	Too Close

**kilrathi** · 12-27-23, 10:42 AM

I always like stuff like this. for my better understanding: if spread or o/u is "too close" then there is no bet for you? so in this case for today you only have 2 bets on over?

**usma1992** · 12-27-23, 01:10 PM

Yes sir or ma'am... I use statistical analysis to produce actual scores. I have a computer model, actually four now, that can download data and produce the projected outcomes of games. I have been told too many times... it can't be done, but I am trying anyway. All my data and stats are live. I produced algorithms for all the types of bets possible for the day. Right now, this model has backtested at over 60% so I decided to run a 10 day trial. Currently, 7-5 as stated. I have already upgraded the model but I wont use the new and improved model until 10 day trial is over. Yes ... tonights bets are two Over bets. I bet every night on every pick so I can track its success.

Good Luck. College basketball seems to be o.k. so far also. The next few days will be a test for that. No games being played now.

Dave

**kilrathi** · 12-27-23, 01:19 PM

Thx for clarifying.
why is NY vs OKC too close even tho there is a projected 10 point difference in total score?

**usma1992** · 12-27-23, 02:16 PM

Not at my computer so don't know but ... I have filters that eliminate over or unders based on the potential of going the other way. The projected score is only first step... then based on specific team attributes and match ups... games get eliminated because the scores could go the other way.

May not make sense... but there is more to it than just predicting the score.. it comes down to predicting how the game in theory could he played.

Dave

**usma1992** · 12-28-23, 07:28 AM

1-1 Last Night... Chugging along... I think this is Day 7 or 8. Already made major adjustments but I will wait to implement. Currently 8-6...

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:40 PM	DETROIT	93	BOSTON	134	227	-17	231.0	Too Close	Under
8:10 PM	DALLAS	104	MINNESOTA	126	230	-10	227.0	Home Minus	Too Close
8:10 PM	UTAH	105	NEW ORLEANS	129	234	-8.5	240.0	Home Minus	Too Close
8:10 PM	INDIANA	122	CHICAGO	120	242	1.5	241.0	Too Close	Over
9:10 PM	MEMPHIS	100	DENVER	122	222	-7	224.5	Too Close	Too Close
10:10 PM	SAN ANTONIO	109	PORTLAND	128	237	-4.5	235.0	Home Minus	Over
10:10 PM	MIAMI	109	GOLDEN STATE	117	226	-3	228.5	Too Close	Too Close
10:40 PM	CHARLOTTE	103	LA LAKERS	130	232	-13	227.0	Too Close	Too Close

**usma1992** · 12-29-23, 10:41 AM

Rough Night for my NBA program 1-5 last night. So 9-11 after day 8. Made major upgrades... I will start a new 10 day run after the New Year. When I create new algorithms to test... it has to work over past data. Any algorithm that I change has worked in the past. If I can get it to work in the past and reasonably predict bets moving forward then I am on to something. College basketball on predicted one game last night. Weber St. over 134. They scored 150+.

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
7:10 PM	BROOKLYN	136	WASHINGTON	112	248	6	242.5	Too Close	Over
7:10 PM	NEW YORK	109	ORLANDO	112	222	-1.5	227.5	Too Close	Too Close
7:40 PM	SACRAMENTO	124	ATLANTA	122	246	-1	252.0	Too Close	Too Close
7:40 PM	MILWAUKEE	124	CLEVELAND	112	236	6	239.5	Away Minus	Too Close
7:40 PM	TORONTO	107	BOSTON	126	233	-8	225.5	Too Close	Too Close
8:10 PM	PHILADELPHIA	112	HOUSTON	108	219	1.5	224.5	Too Close	Too Close
9:10 PM	OKLAHOMA CITY	112	DENVER	119	231	-2.5	236.5	Too Close	Too Close
9:10 PM	CHARLOTTE	97	PHOENIX	132	229	-15.5	230.5	Too Close	Too Close
10:10 PM	SAN ANTONIO	107	PORTLAND	129	236	-5.5	232.0	Too Close	Too Close
10:40 PM	MEMPHIS	103	LA CLIPPERS	120	223	-7	225.5	Too Close	Under

**usma1992** · 12-30-23, 11:59 AM

Went 2-1 last night. Major upgrades are already in place. Ended up 11-12 for first Beta Trial. Not terrible. Lost money but... for first version... I am alright with that. Took me a while to get college football working. NBA... I think is close. College basketball... still needs work. went 0-3 last night and the games weren't close. I was wrong on all 3 majorly. I will start a new 10 day trial on a new thread. I know... it can't be done.

Dave

**usma1992** · 12-30-23, 12:01 PM

2nd Ten Day Beta test of Computer Model...

First 10 day run was unsuccessful went 11-12... but I have made major upgrades. And so it begins... No bets today.

Time	AWAY TEAM	PROJ AWAY SCORE	HOME TEAM	PROJ HOME SCORE	TOTAL	VEGAS SPREAD	VEGAS O/U	SPREAD BET	O/U BET
5:10 PM	MIAMI	120	UTAH	112	232	1.5	229.5	Too Close	Too Close
6:10 PM	TORONTO	123	DETROIT	110	233	5.5	231.5	Too Close	Too Close
7:10 PM	NEW YORK	116	INDIANA	124	240	-3.5	247.5	Too Close	Too Close
8:10 PM	PHILADELPHIA	111	CHICAGO	115	226	-2.5	224.0	Too Close	Too Close
8:10 PM	LA LAKERS	106	MINNESOTA	119	225	-3.5	227.0	Too Close	Too Close
8:40 PM	DALLAS	114	GOLDEN STATE	123	237	-4	242.0	Too Close	Too Close