Jay Edgar NBA, Tuesday 02.06.07

[Jay Edgar]

MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Monday, 3-6, -0.80u
(PHI, GS, ATL, SEA, CHA, MIN, UTH, DEN, NOK)
YTD 192-330, +67.81u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Monday, 4-5, -1.25u
YTD 285-230 (.553), +43.50u

POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES
1 DET 65
2 DAL 60
3 MIA 60
4 PHX 59
5 HOU 59
6 UTH 59
7 LAC 57
8 TOR 56
9 CLE 55
10 NOK 54
11 CHI 54
12 LAX 53
13 SAN 52
14 SAC 51
15 ORL 50
16 NY 50
17 IND 50
18 MIN 49
19 POR 48
20 GS 48
21 WAS 46
22 PHI 46
23 MEM 45
24 CHA 44
25 DEN 43
26 ATL 43
27 SEA 42
28 NJ 36
29 BOS 32
30 MIL 31

EDGAR LINES FOR 02.06.07
(favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

DET 6.1/221 over BOS

NY 4.6/169 over LAC

MIL 2.0/121 over ORL

MEM 3.3/141 over HOU

POR 3.7/153 over PHX

STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
(At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

BOS +271, DET -183

LAC +203, NY -142

ORL +144, MIL -103

HOU +149, MEM -106

PHX +183, POR -129


20%-OFF MARKER
(This moneyline is now 20% away from Edgar ML. Results this far out have been subpar.)

BOS +710, DET +100

LAC +445, NY +127

ORL +279, MIL +178

HOU +292, MEM +171

PHX +382, POR +140

[onlooker]

It might be a good time to start betting against the Suns. They may try to cruise into the Allstar break. They havent been play as well since Minnesota took out their 17 game winning streak.

But still a dangerous team no doubt.

Good catch on your typo of MIA where POR is in the 5% area. Seen it before you changed it.

[Jay Edgar]

Good catch on your typo of MIA where POR is in the 5% area. Seen it before you changed it.

You have the Jay Edgar QC department on its toes, OL.

[Jay Edgar]

Numbers complete for Tuesday

GL

[durito]

Nash may be out tommorow. He didn't play the 2nd half tonight vs. the Nuggets. Though I thought Phoenix played better in the 2nd half anyway.

[Jay Edgar]

Looks as if somebody forgot to plug in the coffee pot at CRIS.

Pinny posted PHX -4.5 and 210/190 due to Nash.

Then CRIS pops it up there at -7.5 400/350.

Three minutes of free-fall, then it's off the board while they wake themselves up.

[AC1318]

I guess nash is in
Do you think portlond ML would have dropped drastically without nash in at suns

[Jay Edgar]

It opened at 8 then to 7.5 yesterday, before any MLs were out and before any Nash issue. Typical ML would have been 350 or so.

You have to assume Nash is at least doubtful given the reposting at 4.5.

But it's Russian Roulette with NBA injuries, it seems -- no shortage of bad information or even misinformation.

What's the source for Nash-is-in, AC?

[bigboydan]

Heres the latest info I found on Nash guys:

Nash, S G Out Tues - Shoulder - 2/6/07

[DrSlamm]

so looks like these are all plays except the bucks which is close to being a play.

You planning on playing all of them Jay?

[AC1318]

boston celtics +690 ML
lot of odds here
hope you get this one

[Jay Edgar]

so looks like these are all plays except the bucks which is close to being a play.

You planning on playing all of them Jay?

Might pass on the Bucks.

Do have the Celts, especially Celtics first half.

GL all

[bigboydan]

I took a shot with the Bucks +1 myself Jay. I do see some value with them tonight actually despite the numbers above.

[DrSlamm]

you definitely playing blazers? that is the bet that i like the least

[Jay Edgar]

you definitely playing blazers? that is the bet that i like the least

Well, I feel OK about the POR +8 I have from yesterday.

But even at the current numbers the answer is hell yes. I've been on the Blazers in about 96% of their games, and done more than survived, so why not?

[DrSlamm]

+8 seems quite strong

[Jay Edgar]

Might be time to put the Celtics on the shelf, or at least think about it.

Good God.

Usually you need to get to March before even considering that, but they just can't play at an NBA level for 48 minutes.
I thought maybe tonight 24 minutes, but not even close.

That's 15 in a row and 22 of 24.

[onlooker]

Not so fast Jay. Celtics only down 10 now. So at least they are trying somewhat.

This team is pitiful though.

[Jay Edgar]

Shhhhhhh

(don't spoil the jinx!!!)

[onlooker]

109-102 Pistons.

Cover baby. And they were down 22 from what I seen at one point.

[bigboydan]

I'm shocked we got the cover on that Boston game guys. I'll take it though

[Jay Edgar]

Ugly ducklings R us.

Good luck with those Bucks, fellas. I had 1H only, but I hope they get home for you.

[onlooker]

Im not on the Bucks tonight. Got the damn Grizzlies though.

[bigboydan]

I got the Buck and those sorry ass Grizzlies

[onlooker]

Well, I feel OK about the POR +8 I have from yesterday.

That +8 is looking very good right about now. Portland blew a chance to win it in regulation. Now looks like they are going to choke in overtime.

[DrSlamm]

i hope that the portland bet will be graded as a loss in the official ATS standings.. mother****ers

[onlooker]

i hope that the portland bet will be graded as a loss in the official ATS standings.. mother****ers

I think Jay uses the closing lines of all the games that qualify. So Im sure its graded as a loss.

[Jay Edgar]

GAP TEAM ATS ML
14 NY WIN 101
17 MEM LOSS -100
19 BOS WIN -100
22 POR LOSS -100

=====================================
MONEYLINE PLAYS (betting 1u on dogs; betting to win 1u on favorites)
Tuesday, 1-3, -1.99u
(BOS, NY, MEM, POR)
YTD 193-333, +65.82u

SAME TEAMS ATS (1.05u to win 1.00u)
Tuesday, 2-2, -0.10u
YTD 287-232 (.553), +43.40u

[DrSlamm]

what is GAP