Silver Stars -1? - Please explain this line.

SexyMit · 08-23-09, 12:00 AM

Yes you better get San Antonio while it is ONLY -1

fearless · 08-23-09, 12:05 AM

Originally posted by SexyMit

Yes you better get San Antonio while it is ONLY -1

Can you give you me an explanation of why as in reasons. San Antonio isn't hot or anything, they've lost two in a row. Also, the Silver Stars are a pick at plenty of books so -1 is a bad deal anyway.

You're statement makes me think you're disregarding one of the biggest rules in sportsbetting:

Never underestimate the heart of a champion.

I can't believe you're ignoring that one.

SexyMit · 08-23-09, 12:10 AM

Detroit is on the back end of a back to back. Detroit has owned San Antonio sweeping them in the championship last yr. I guarantee you they have not forgot last yr. This is the 1st game they have played each other since the championship last yr. They have the revenge of getting swept last yr. That is the theory and they have also lost 2 in a row, Detroit just won yesterday on the road.

texhooper · 08-23-09, 12:11 AM

yeah, i put in sa at a pk about a half hour ago. -1 is still good, i think!!

fearless · 08-23-09, 12:16 AM

Originally posted by SexyMit

Detroit is on the back end of a back to back. Detroit has owned San Antonio sweeping them in the championship last yr. I guarantee you they have not forgot last yr. This is the 1st game they have played each other since the championship last yr. They have the revenge of getting swept last yr. That is the theory and they have also lost 2 in a row, Detroit just won yesterday on the road.

BOL. I took Seattle today because they were 7-1 at home against Indiana all-time. These trends hold much more often than they're broken. I don't know what kind of logic this is "Team A has always beaten team B therefore team B is due to win", I hate the due theory, it's caused me more grief than probably anything else. I say the trend is your friend or like CK says don't stop the streak, let the streak stop you or whatever. That's one thing I agree with CK about.

Never underestimate the heart of a champion. The betting public must be ignoring that bit of wisdom for this one.

SexyMit · 08-23-09, 12:20 AM

Actually he is the one that text me earlier about this play and said go HEAVY on San Antonio tomorrow... And right after he did the line went down to a PK. I was also looking at taking Seattle earlier today, not for the fact that they are 7-1 against Indiana. Take it for what it is worth but that is just our opinion on this game. You know our track record so thats all the info I have for you! But we will be on them BIG tomorrow!

fearless · 08-23-09, 12:31 AM

I just checked and Detroit's 4-2 in the second of back to backs the last two seasons. My only concern is the fact that most of Detroit's key players are old but they're 1-0 in the second of back to backs this year and I watched that game, they gutted it out down the stretch on the road. I think the crowd will give them the adrenaline they need to win it. I'm really leaning towards Detroit.

Nickelicious · 08-23-09, 01:35 AM

Fearless, I did a bit of research myself and I can see why the Stars are the play for CK and SexyMit. Of course they could be wrong, anyone can be, but their track record is solid. And I don't get how "never underestimate the heart of a champion" is one of the biggest rules of sports betting. How 'bout "never underestimate the heart of a hungry team" or "never underestimate the revenge factor" or "never underestimate fresh legs on a hungry team with a revenge factor"?

If Detroit had the heart of a champion, they wouldn't be 10-14 right now and probably out of the playoffs.

How 'bout "Never underestimate the lack of motivation for a team that has already won 3 rings in 6 years, who lost their legendary coach, is almost out of the playoff hunt, has tired legs and is playing the back end of a back-to-back against a hungry team with a keen revenge factor?"

That one I might trust. My money is on the Stars.

jcygts6 · 08-23-09, 01:38 AM

stars really need a win to keep up with LA sparks for that playoff spot

head_strong · 08-23-09, 01:54 AM

Hard to see the Stars losing this one.....

fearless · 08-23-09, 03:23 AM

Originally posted by Nickelicious

Fearless, I did a bit of research myself and I can see why the Stars are the play for CK and SexyMit. Of course they could be wrong, anyone can be, but their track record is solid. And I don't get how "never underestimate the heart of a champion" is one of the biggest rules of sports betting. How 'bout "never underestimate the heart of a hungry team" or "never underestimate the revenge factor" or "never underestimate fresh legs on a hungry team with a revenge factor"?

If Detroit had the heart of a champion, they wouldn't be 10-14 right now and probably out of the playoffs.

How 'bout "Never underestimate the lack of motivation for a team that has already won 3 rings in 6 years, who lost their legendary coach, is almost out of the playoff hunt, has tired legs and is playing the back end of a back-to-back against a hungry team with a keen revenge factor?"

That one I might trust. My money is on the Stars.

That gave me a laugh, thanks. BOL but I like the Shock here.

Nickelicious · 08-23-09, 03:26 AM

Originally posted by fearless

That gave me a laugh, thanks. BOL but I like the Shock here.

That's all I care about, fearless, is entertaining with a sense of humor. I wish you the best of luck on the Shock. Maybe the home crowd will give them a boost. No one will die no matter what the outcome is. It's only money.

darkenergy · 08-23-09, 04:47 PM

Originally posted by Nickelicious

That's all I care about, fearless, is entertaining with a sense of humor. I wish you the best of luck on the Shock. Maybe the home crowd will give them a boost. No one will die no matter what the outcome is. It's only money.

Very classy of you all

,
SA 1H -1 for me.
BOL all

fearless · 08-23-09, 04:51 PM

The line movement has scared me away from Detroit. I will watch the game and I may make a half time play.

No one's really given me a good reason as to why the Silver Stars are favored, it should be an interesting game.

Nickelicious · 08-23-09, 05:15 PM

Yeah, the line moved solidly with money on the Stars. The Shock have an early 9-2 lead, though, fearless. Maybe you should've pulled the trigger after all.

jcygts6 · 08-23-09, 06:15 PM

fearless you were right... detroit is going to win this

Nickelicious · 08-23-09, 06:33 PM

Originally posted by jcygts6

fearless you were right... detroit is going to win this

In a cakewalk. Laying the wood on the Stars with an 18-point lead. "Never underestimate the heart of a champion!"

fearless · 08-24-09, 02:06 AM

Originally posted by Nickelicious

In a cakewalk. Laying the wood on the Stars with an 18-point lead. "Never underestimate the heart of a champion!"

Who asked why that's one of the most important rules in sports betting?

Psylence · 08-24-09, 02:24 AM

Cant read too much into the back to back games if the game is at home because even if they play like crap, in the WNBA road teams wont show up half the time anyway.

Nickelicious · 08-24-09, 04:48 AM

Originally posted by fearless

Who asked why that's one of the most important rules in sports betting?

Um, that would be you, buddy. So why didn't you put your money behind your convictions?

Sometimes I wonder whether this forum is good or bad for a semi-sharp gambler. So many conflicting opinions around here, it's too easy to get caught up in someone else's rhetoric and lose the grip on your own reality.

head_strong · 08-24-09, 04:57 AM

Originally posted by Psylence

Cant read too much into the back to back games if the game is at home because even if they play like crap, in the WNBA road teams wont show up half the time anyway.

was thinking the same thing.....

fearless · 08-24-09, 05:20 AM

Originally posted by Nickelicious

Um, that would be you, buddy. So why didn't you put your money behind your convictions?

Sometimes I wonder whether this forum is good or bad for a semi-sharp gambler. So many conflicting opinions around here, it's too easy to get caught up in someone else's rhetoric and lose the grip on your own reality.

I didn't ask why that's an important rule, I said it is an important rule.

I watch the line movement from the Vegas books and I take it very seriously. Most of the books moved the line up to Silver Stars -2 an hour or two before the game.

When I see a line that seems way off like that and the Vegas books keep moving the line towards the direction that makes no sense to me, I usually pass just like I did here.

That strategy has saved more than it's hurt me I would say. It's just a personal quirk of mine, it has nothing to do with what was posted here.

Incidentally, why do I do this? I've made the mistake of betting against seemingly senseless line movement many times to find out that some player had an unknown injury or there was one of a hundred things almost nobody knew about that accounted for the line movement (late plane flight, disharmony on the team, etc.).

Nickelicious · 08-24-09, 05:35 AM

Originally posted by fearless

I didn't ask why that's an important rule, I said it is an important rule.

I watch the line movement from the Vegas books and I take it very seriously. Most of the books moved the line up to Silver Stars -2 an hour or two before the game.

When I see a line that seems way off like that and the Vegas books keep moving the line towards the direction that makes no sense to me, I usually pass just like I did here.

That strategy has saved more than it's hurt me I would say. It's just a personal quirk of mine, it has nothing to do with what was posted here.

Incidentally, why do I do this? I've made the mistake of betting against seemingly senseless line movement many times to find out that some player had an unknown injury or there was one of a hundred things almost nobody knew about that accounted for the line movement (late plane flight, disharmony on the team, etc.).

Your explanation shows extraordinarily good judgment and excellent insight into the machinations of the gambling industry. When you didn't follow your instincts on the Detroit game after the line moved, you might have lost an opportunity to cash in, but you strengthened the instinct that has protected you from much deeper losses.

Good move, fearless. I hope the majority of line movements don't prevent you from capitalizing on your future insights.

fearless · 08-24-09, 05:58 AM

Originally posted by Nickelicious

Your explanation shows extraordinarily good judgment and excellent insight into the machinations of the gambling industry. When you didn't follow your instincts on the Detroit game after the line moved, you might have lost an opportunity to cash in, but you strengthened the instinct that has protected you from much deeper losses.

Good move, fearless. I hope the majority of line movements don't prevent you from capitalizing on your future insights.

Thanks. We know so little about what's going on behind the scenes. I think that might be the biggest reason why the books always come out ahead.