NBA-Euroleague 2020/21 picks&numbers

[dejann]

MEM-WAS
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews: neutral( Allen out, Jacskon out / Smith out )
Model: MEM 7 231.1-232.5
Robo number: MEM 3 231-232.5
Final number: MEM 3 231-232.5
Picks:
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/10/2021	Memphis	Washington	7.0	232.5	8.4	231.1	232.5	8.4

[dejann]

Real Madrid-Barcelona

Date: 11.03.2021.
Sport: Euroleague
Start time: 21:00
Pick: Real Madrid +2.5 @1.943, under155 @1.869
Bookmaker: Pinncle
Stake: 1 unit

Teamnews: adv Barcelona 0.5 ( Lull out, Fernandez doubt / - )
Model: Barcelona 0.92 148
Robo number: Real Madrid 1 148
Final number: Real Madrid 0 148
Picks: under155 @1.869 ( min price under153 @1.91 ), Real Madrid+2.5 @1.943 ( min price +2 @2.00 )
Comment:

round	Date	Home	Away	Tpts	Srsp	HpredPts	ApredPts
29	3/11/2021	Real Madrid	Barcelona	148.0	-0.92	73.5	74.4

[dejann]

BRK-BOS
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews:adv BOS 2.5-if Green will play ( Durant out, Green quest, Luwawu quest / Smart prob )
Model: BRK 4.1 233.6-235
Robo number: BRK 5 232.5-234
Final number: BRK 2.5 232.5-234- Green in, BRK 2 232.5-234- Green out
Picks:
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/11/2021	Brooklyn	Boston	4.1	235.0	6.0	233.6	235.0	6.0

MIA-ORL
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews: neutral ( Adebayo out, Bradley out / Fournier out, Ennis out, Anthony out, Gordon quest )
Model: MIA 8 208-209.2
Robo number: MIA 7.5 208-209
Final number: MIA 7.5 208-209
Picks:
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/11/2021	Miami	Orlando	8.0	209.2	9.7	208.0	209.2	9.7

[dejann]

Valencia-Fenerbahce

Teamnews: adv Valencia 1, total -1( Vives prob / Guduric out, Mahmutoglou out, Perez out )
Model: Valencia 2.21 170
Robo number: Valencia 1.5 170
Final number: Valencia 2.5 169
Picks:
Comment:

round	Date	Home	Away	Tpts	Srsp	HpredPts	ApredPts
29	3/12/2021	Valencia	Fenerbahce	170.0	2.21	86.1	83.9

[dejann]

MEM-DEN
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews: adv MEM 1 if Green and Millsap will not play( Jackson out / Millsap quest, Green quest, Harris out, Hampton out )
Model: DEN 2.3 221.3-222.6
Robo number: DEN 2.5 221.5-222.5
Final number: DEN 1.5 221.5-222.5- Millsap out, Green out
Picks:
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/12/2021	Memphis	Denver	-2.3	222.6	-1.3	221.3	222.6	-1.3

[dejann]

ATL-SAC
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews:adv SAC 0.5 ( Hunter out, Dunn out, Reddish out / Whiteside out )
Model: ATL 3.2 241.1-242.5
Robo number: ATL 4.5 241-242.5
Final number: ATL 4 241-242.5
Picks:
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/13/2021	Atlanta	Sacramento	3.2	242.5	5.3	241.1	242.5	5.3

DEN-DAL
Schedule: adv DAL 1.5, DEN b2b
Teamnews: adv DAL 0.5- if Doncic and Porzingis will play( Harris out, Green doubt, Nnaji out, Hampton quest / Doncic quest, Porzingis quest )
Model: DEN 4.8 224.1-225.4
Robo number: DEN 2 224-225.5
Final number: DEN 1.5 224-225.5- Doncic in, Porzingis in
Picks:
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/13/2021	Denver	Dallas	4.8	225.4	7.0	224.1	225.4	8.5

[dejann]

GSW-UTA
Schedule: neutral, early tip off
Teamnews: ( - / - )
Model: UTA 9.7 229.4-230.7
Robo number: UTA 6 229-230
Final number: UTA 6 227-230
Picks:
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/14/2021	Golden State	Utah	-9.7	230.7	-7.9	229.4	230.7	-7.9

NOP-LAC
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews:neutral ( Redick out / Beverly out )
Model: LAC 4.2 235.3-236.7
Robo number: LAC 5.5 235.5-236.5
Final number: LAC 5.5 235.5-236.5
Picks:
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/14/2021	New Orleans	L.A. Clippers	-4.2	236.7	-3.0	235.3	236.7	-3.0

[dejann]

Dallas-LA Clippers

Date: 15.03.2021
Sport: NBA
Start time: 02:00
Pick: Dallas+2 @1.925
Bookmaker: Pinncle
Stake: 1 unit

Schedule: adv DAL 1, LAC b2b, blowout
Teamnews: adv DAL 1- if Ibaka will play( Johnson quest / Beverly out, Ibaka quest )
Model: LAC 2 225.8-227.1
Robo number: LAC 0 226.5-227.5
Final number: DAL 1.5 226.5-227.5- Ibaka in, DAL 2.5 226.5-227.5- Ibaka out
PicksAL +2 @1.925 (min price DAL ml @2.05, +1.5 @1.95)
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/15/2021	Dallas	L.A. Clippers	-2.0	227.1	-0.7	225.8	227.1	-2.2

Golden Tate-LA Lakers

Date: 15.03.2021
Sport: NBA
Start time: 03:30
Pick: LAL-2.5 @1.952
Bookmaker: Pinncle
Stake: 1 unit

Schedule: adv LAL 1.5, GSW b2b
Teamnews:adv GSW 2 ( Gasol out, Davies out, Caruso out / - )
Model: LAL 5.7 218.2-219.5
Robo number: LAL 6 219-220.5
Final number: LAL 4 219-220.5
Picks: LAL-2.5 @1.952 ( min price LAL -3 @1.95)
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/15/2021	Golden State	L.A. Lakers	-5.7	219.5	-3.8	218.2	219.5	-2.3

[dejann]

Boston-Utah

Date: 16.03.2021
Sport: NBA
Start time: 00:30
Pick: BOS+4 @1.952
Bookmaker: Pinncle
Stake: 1 unit

BOS-UTA
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews: neutral ( - / - )
Model: UTA 4.7 227-228.3
Robo number: UTA 2 227-228.5
Final number: UTA 2 227-228.5
Picks:BOS+4 @1.952 ( min price BOS +3.5 @1.95 )
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/16/2021	Boston	Utah	-4.7	228.3	-3.1	227.0	228.3	-3.1

[dejann]

Memphis-Miami

Date: 17.03.2021
Sport: NBA
Start time: 02:00
Pick: under219 @1.99
Bookmaker: Pinncle
Stake: 1 unit

Schedule: adv MEM 2, MIA b2b, 5in7
Teamnews: adv MEM 0.5( Jackson out / Iguadala out, Bradley out, Harkless out )
Model: MEM 2.4 210-211.2
Robo number: MEM 1 210-211
Final number: MEM 1.5 210-211
Picks:under219 @1.99 (min price under218 @1.91)
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/17/2021	Memphis	Miami	2.4	211.2	3.6	210.0	211.2	2.1

[dejann]

Real Madrid-CSKA

Date: 18.03.2021.
Sport: Euroleague
Start time: 21:00
Pick: under160 @1.943
Bookmaker: Pinncle
Stake: 1 unit

Teamnews: neutral ( Lull out, Fernandez out, Randolph out / Hilliard out, Milutinov out )
Model: Real Madrid 3.32 154.4
Robo number: Real Madrid 3 154.5
Final number: Real Madrid 3 154.5
Picks: under160 @1.943 ( min price under159.5 @1.91)
Comment:

round	Date	Home	Away	Tpts	Srsp	HpredPts	ApredPts
30	3/18/2021	Real Madrid	CSKA	154.4	3.32	78.9	75.6

[dejann]

POR-NOP
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews:adv POR 0.5 ( Nurkic out, Giles prob / Redick out )
Model: NOP 1.8 239.9-241.3
Robo number: POR 0 240.5-242
Final number: POR 1 240.5-242
Picks:
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/18/2021	Portland	New Orleans	-1.8	241.3	0.4	239.9	241.3	0.4

[dejann]

Milan-Barcelona

Teamnews:adv Barcelona 1- if Datome will not play ( Delaney out, Datome quest / - )
Model: Barcelona 0.05 152.9
Robo number: Milan 0 153
Final number: Barca 1.5 153- Datome out, Barca 1 153- Datome in
Picks:
Comment:

round	Date	Home	Away	Tpts	Srsp	HpredPts	ApredPts
30	3/19/2021	EA7 Milan	Barcelona	152.9	-0.05	76.4	76.5

[dejann]

CLE-SAS
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews: adv CLE 2, total -1.5( Love out, Prince out / DeRozan out )
Model:SAS 7.8 212.2-213.5
Robo number: SAS 7 212-213.5
Final number: SAS 5 210.5-212
Picks:
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/19/2021	Cleveland	San Antonio	-7.8	213.5	-6.1	212.2	213.5	-6.1

DEN-CHI
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews: adv CHI 0.5 ( Morris out, Harris out / Temple out )
Model: DEN 7.4 224-225.3
Robo number: DEN 7.5 224-225.5
Final number: DEN 7 224-225.5
Picks:
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/19/2021	Denver	Chicago	7.4	225.3	9.6	224.0	225.3	9.6

[dejann]

DEN-NOP
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews: neutral- if Ball will play( Morris out, Harris out / Ball quest, Redick out )
Model: DEN 7 232.7-234.1
Robo number: DEN 5 232.5-234
Final number: DEN 5 232.5-234- Ball in, DEN 6.5 232.5-234- Ball out
Picks:
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/21/2021	Denver	New Orleans	7.0	234.1	8.9	232.7	234.1	8.9

POR-DAL
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews:adv POR 0.5 ( Nurkic out / WCS out, Johnson out )
Model: DAL 2 224.7-226.1
Robo number: DAL 2 226.5-228
Final number: DAL 1.5 226.5-228
Picks:
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/21/2021	Portland	Dallas	-2.0	226.1	-0.3	224.7	226.1	-0.3

[dejann]

MIL-IND
Schedule: adv MIL 2, IND b2b, OT
Teamnews: adv IND 3( Giannis doubt / Sampson out, Warren out )
Model: MIL 7.8 233.9-235.3
Robo number: MIL 9 231.5-233
Final number: MIL 6 231.5-233
Picks:
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/22/2021	Milwaukee	Indiana	7.8	235.3	8.9	233.9	235.3	7.4

[asiagambler]

What do all the abbreviations stand for ?

[dejann]

What do all the abbreviations stand for ?

*CovHc (model suggested fair hcap, assuming empty arena)

*SchTPts (model suggested total points, includes b2b games adjustment)

*SchHc (model suggested hcap in normal circumstances and games with fans)

All 3 numbers(CovHc, SchTPts, SchHc) include b2b adjustment, however heavier schedule where team plays 4^th game in 5 days or 5^th in 7 days is not covered by model, instead it will always be mentioned in daily notes.

*SugTPts (model raw total points number)

*AdjTpts (model total points number adjusted for part of the season when game is played, specifically calendar month, which is a bit distorted now due to different than usual schedule in current season)

*SugHC (model raw hcap number)


Thanks for asking. See you.

[dejann]

Miami-Phoenix

Date: 23.03.2021
Sport: NBA
Start time: 01:00
Pick: under215.5 @1.943
Bookmaker: Pinncle
Stake: 1 unit

Schedule: neutral
Teamnews: adv PHX 1, total -1- if Dragic will not play( Dragic quest, Bradley quest / - )
Model: PHX 5.5 210.3-211.6
Robo number: PHX 2 209.5-210.5
Final number: PHX 2 209.5-210.5 -Dragic in, PHX 3 208.5-209.5- Dragic out
Picks:under215.5 @1.943 ( min prce under215.5 @1.90 )
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/23/2021	Miami	Phoenix	-5.5	211.6	-3.7	210.3	211.6	-3.7

[dejann]

MIL-BOS
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews: neutral- if Gainnis and Forbes will play( Giannis quest, Forbes quest, Tucker prob / Thompson out )
Model: MIL 6.9 228.7-230
Robo number: MIL 6.5 228-229.5
Final number: MIL 6.5 228-229.5- Giannis in, Forbes in
Picks:
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/24/2021	Milwaukee	Boston	6.9	230.0	8.4	228.7	230.0	8.4

[asiagambler]

Good info

[dejann]

Zalgiris-Maccabi

Date: 25.03.2021.
Sport: Euroleague
Start time: 20:00
Pick:under155 @1.99
Bookmaker: Pinnacle
Stake: 1 unit


Teamnews: adv Zalgiris 0.5( Milaknis out, Garino gtd / Hunter out, Zoosman out )
Model: Zalgiris 2.56 148.4
Robo number: Zalgiris 4 148.5
Final number: Zalgiris 4.5 148.5
Picks: under155 @1.99( min price under153.5 @1.91 )
Comment:

round	Date	Home	Away	Tpts	Srsp	HpredPts	ApredPts
31	3/25/2021	Zalgiris	Maccabi	148.4	2.56	75.5	72.9

[dejann]

MIA-POR
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews: adv POR 0.5, total -1- if Dragic will not play( Dragic quest, Harkless quest, Bradley out, Okpala out / Nurkic out, Little out, Simons out )
Model: MIA 2.5 214.3-215.6
Robo number: MIA 3 214-215
Final number: MIA 2.5 213-214- Dragic out, MIA 3.5 214-215- Dragic in
Picks:
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/25/2021	Miami	Portland	2.8	215.6	4.5	214.3	215.6	4.5

[dejann]

Baskonia-Milano

Teamnews: neutral( Jekiri out / Delaney out, Evans out )
Model: Baskonia 4.16 152.1
Robo number: Baskonia 2 152
Final number: Baskonia 2 152
Picks:
Comment:

round	Date	Home	Away	Tpts	Srsp	HpredPts	ApredPts
31	3/26/2021	Baskonia	EA7 Milan	152.1	4.16	78.1	74.0

[dejann]

CHA-MIA
Schedule: adv CHA 1.5, MIA b2b
Teamnews: neutral- if Butler and Draigic will play( Ball out / Dragic quest, Butler quest, Oladipo out, Bjelica out)
Model: CHA 1.8 211.8213
Robo number: MIA 2 213-214.5
Final number: MIA 2 213-214.5- Butler in, Dragic in
Picks:
Comment:
MIA trade: Oladipo in, Bjelica in - Olynyk out, Bradley out, Harkless out, Silva out

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/26/2021	Charlotte	Miami	1.8	213.0	3.8	211.8	213.0	2.3

[dejann]

MIL-NYK
Schedule:adv NYK 1.5, MIL b2b
Teamnews: adv MIL 0.5- if Tucker, Bullock and Noel will play( Portis quest, Tucker quest / Bullock quest, Noel quest, Rose out )
Model: MIL 6.2 221.1-222.4
Robo number: MIL 8 219-220.5
Final number: MIL 8.5 219-220.5- Tucker in, Bullock in, Noel in
Picks:
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/27/2021	Milwaukee	New York	6.2	222.4	7.6	221.1	222.4	9.1

SAS-CHI
Schedule:neutral
Teamnews: neutral ( Walker IV out / LaVine prob, Theis out )
Model: SAS 0.4 219.1-220.4
Robo number: SAS 1.5 217-218.5
Final number: SAS 1.5 217-218.5
Picks:
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/27/2021	San Antonio	Chicago	0.4	220.4	2.2	219.1	220.4	2.2

[dejann]

CHA-PHX
Schedule: neutral, early tip off
Teamnews:adv PHX 1.5, total -1 ( Ball out / Nader out )
Model: PHX 5.9 222.5-223.8
Robo number: PHX 4 222.5-224
Final number: PHX 5.5 219.5-223
Picks:
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/28/2021	Charlotte	Phoenix	-5.9	223.8	-4.1	222.5	223.8	-4.1

[dejann]

San Antonio-Sacramento

Date: 29.03.2021
Sport: NBA
Start time: 02:30
Pick: SAS-2.5 @1.97
Bookmaker: Pinncle
Stake: 1 unit


SAS-SAC
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews: neutral( Walker IV out / Whiteside quest, Bagley out )
Model: SAS 1.7 226.4-227.7
Robo number: SAS 4 226.5-227.5
Final number: SAS 4 226.5-227.5
Picks:SAS-2.5 @1.97 (min price -2.5 @1.90)
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/29/2021	San Antonio	Sacramento	1.7	227.7	2.9	226.4	227.7	2.9

[asiagambler]

Why are Spurs -2.5 a pick if model only has them 2.9 ?

Doesn't seem like much of a differential

Also, I think fans are limited to some small amount so not even a full home court advantage ?

[dejann]

Real Madrid-Anadolu Efes

Date: 30.03.2021.
Sport: Euroleague
Start time: 19:00
Pick: Anadolu Efes-3.5 @1.90, under162.5 @1.925
Bookmaker: Pinnacle
Stake: 1 unit

Teamnews: adv Efes 0.5 (Lull out, Randolph out, Fernandez quest / - )
Model: Anadolu Efes 6.36 155.3
Robo number: Anadolu Efes 4.5 155.5
Final number: Anadolu Efes 5 155.5
Picks: Anadolu Efes-3.5 @1.90 (min price Anadolu Efes-4 @1.95), under162.5 @1.925( min price under160.5 @1.91)
Comment:

round	Date	Home	Away	Tpts	Srsp	HpredPts	ApredPts
32	3/30/2021	Real Madrid	Anadolu Efes	155.3	-6.36	74.5	80.9

Zenit-CSKA

Date: 30.03.2021.
Sport: Euroleague
Start time: 19:00
Pick: Zenit +1.5 @1.943
Bookmaker: Pinnacle
Stake: 1 unit


Teamnews: adv Zenit 1.5, total -2( - / James out, Bolomboy out, Milutinov out )
Model: Zenit 1.01 157.6
Robo number: Zenit 0 157.5
Final number: Zenit 2 155.5
Picks: Zenit +1.5 @1.943( min price Zenit ml @2.00, +1.5 @1.90 )
Comment:

round	Date	Home	Away	Tpts	Srsp	HpredPts	ApredPts
32	3/30/2021	Zenit	CSKA	157.6	1.01	79.3	78.3

[dejann]

Why are Spurs -2.5 a pick if model only has them 2.9 ?

Doesn't seem like much of a differential

Also, I think fans are limited to some small amount so not even a full home court advantage ?

Hi,
Model know nothing about team news, injuries, suspensions, motivation, dressing room problems, coaching change, congested schedule, transfers, etc. Model only knows past results, past data, all model predictions are based on actual past numbers.Specifically for this game. The Kings have had an easier schedule in the last 4 games. 2xCavs, GSW (without Curry and Green) and Hawks.
In this case the model overrated the Kings.

See you.

[dejann]

WAS-CHA
Schedule: adv CHA 1.5, WAS b2b
Teamnews: adv WAS 1- if Beal will play(Beal quest, Gaford doubt, Bertans out, Smith out / Monk prob, Ball out )
Model: CHA 3.1 233-234.3
Robo number: CHA 1 232-233.5
Final number: WAS 1 232-233.5- Beal in, CHA 3 229-230.5- Beal out
Picks:
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/30/2021	Washington	Charlotte	-3.1	234.3	-1.8	233.0	234.3	-0.3

[dejann]

IND-MIA
Schedule: neutral
Teamnews: neutral- f Lamb, McDermott and Nunn will play( Lamb quest, McDermott quest / Nunn quest, Oladipo out )
Model: IND 1.7 216.5-217.8
Robo number: MIA 2 216.5-218
Final number: MIA 2 216.5-218- Lamb in, McDermott in, Nunn in
Picks:
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
3/31/2021	Indiana	Miami	1.7	217.8	3.7	216.5	217.8	3.7

[dejann]

Baskonia-Anadolu Efes

Teamnews: adv Efes 0.5 ( Jekiri out / - )
Model: Anadolu Efes 4.08 160.6
Robo number: Anadolu Efes 4.5 160.5
Final number: Anadolu Efes 5 160.5
Picks:
Comment:

round	Date	Home	Away	Tpts	Srsp	HpredPts	ApredPts
33	4/1/2021	Baskonia	Anadolu Efes	160.6	-4.08	78.3	82.4

[dejann]

MIA-GSW
Schedule: adv GSW 1.5, MIA b2b
Teamnews:neutral ( Oladipo prob, Nunn quest / Paschall out )
Model: MIA 1.6 214.7-215.7
Robo number: MIA 2.5 212.5-213.5
Final number: MIA 2.5 212.5-213.5
Picks:
Comment:

Date	Team H	Team A	CovHc	SchTPts	SchHC	SugTPts	adjTPts	SugHC
4/1/2021	Miami	Golden State	1.6	215.7	3.0	214.7	215.7	4.5