NBA 2020-21 thread...

[brewers7]

May not have time for write-ups this year, we shall see...

Note: $100 = 1 unit. No plays more than 3 units and those I think should be rare... All plays 1 unit unless noted. For tracking purposes, I will do -110 for all plays although there are many reduced juice shops out there that I use. For moneyline plays, I will use the juice that I got when I bet it.

Brooklyn -7
Golden State / Brooklyn over 235
LA Clippers +2.5

GL...

[brewers7]

Last 10 opening night ring games for the defending champs....

2019 Toronto won 130-122 over New Orleans last year in OT as 6.5 chalk
2018 Golden St 108-100 over OKC as 12-point chalk
2017 Houston 122-121 over Golden St who was 9-point chalk
2016 Cleveland 117-88 over NY as 9-point chalk
2015 Golden St 111-95 over New Orleans as 10.5 -point chalk
2014 San Antonio 101-100 over Dallas as 3.5-point chalk
2013 Miami 107-95 over Chicago as 5-point chalk
2012 Miami 120-107 over Boston as 6.5-point chalk
2011 Miami 105-94 over Dallas as 4.5 underdogs in a Christmas opening day rematch of the finals
2010 LA Lakers 112-110 over Houston as 6.5-point chalk

Defending champs in BOLD

[brewers7]

2-1, +$90

Milwaukee Bucks -4, laying $110, to win $100 -- Square play and every crummy service on earth has Milwaukee, but I still like them and am grabbing them now before it goes any higher.

GL...

[brewers7]

2-2, -$20

Christmas Gift:

Brooklyn / Boston over 227.5 (2 units...$220 to win $200) - I may be wrong but I see this listed total rising to at least 230... Nets are playing the old Phoenix Suns style of getting a shot up in 7 or 8 seconds every possession that Mike D'Antoni ran as coach at Phoenix from 2003 through 2008....And guess what, he is an Assistant Coach for the Nets now along with Amar'e Stoudemire....Stoudemire and Nash played for D'Antoni during those run-and-gun years and now Brooklyn is running this fast-paced offense... And Boston won't have any problems playing this pace right alongside the Nets...This should probably be a 3-unit play...

GL...

[brewers7]

Adding:

LA Clippers -2.5 ($110 to win $100) -

I have posted many "brewers7 hypotheses" over the years and one of them is to "Always take the team facing an opponent for the first time of a new season after their opponent knocked them out of the playoffs the previous season"... This is basically a payback/revenge game....There are many times when this is a no play (heavy roster turnover, a bad situational spot, etc), but for folks who remember, the Clips were up 3-1 against Denver in the conference semifinals in "the bubble" in September, eagerly looking ahead to facing the Lakers in the conference finals, and lo and behold, the Clips never got to face the Lake-Show as the Nuggets won 3 straight games to eliminate the Clippers from the playoffs in shocking fashion...Game 7 was on September 15, barely over 3 months ago, so this wound is about as fresh as can EVER be since this was the shortest offseason in league history for the teams who went deep into the playoffs... So this is certainly an auto-play for me...

GL...

[brewers7]

I will start posting all my picks with rankings so people can see first-hand if I am running hot or cold... I pick every side and every total every day and rank those picks from #1 (top play) to whatever number of games are running ("worst" play)... This is a good gauge for anyone following to see if I am stinking up the joint daily or not...

For Friday:

Sides:
1) LAC, 2) Bkn, 3) Mil, 4) NO, 5) Dal

Totals:
1) Bkn ov, 2) Dal ov, 3) Mil un, 4) NO un, 5) LAC un

I like today's board...Now me liking this board doesn't mean jack-sh*t as I have loved many 5-game boards before and then go 2-8...But this is an early gauge for me to see if I am getting off to a good start this season or whiffing badly early on... I track my top plays, too...My #1 sides are 2-0 so far this year and #1 totals are 0-2 and both losers were not close...

[spippen]

Good write up.

[brewers7]

Thanks...I may have to wait for this season to "settle in" before getting "aggressive" with plays....Totals not going well early, but it is early....

3-3, -$160

Going to stalk 2nd half plays today, but I have 2 small plays and a regular play for the 5 p.m. game.

Atlanta/Memphis over 60.5, 1Q, laying $55 to win $50
Atlanta/Memphis over 121, 1H. laying $55 to win $50

The Hawks games are already going the way they did several times last year and that is, they FLY over the 1H total, and then the teams (especially Atlanta) can't shoot straight in the 2H and end up staying Under for the game with a low-scoring 2H...Opening night Atlanta shot 67.4% from the field and 50% from 3-land in the 1H, while Chicago shot 42.9% and 28.6% respectively, in the 1H and they combined to score 142 points...The game total was 234, so this looked like an easy over....Not so fast....In the 2nd half, Atlanta shot 37.8% from the field and 26.7% from 3-land, while Chicago shot 39.5% and 14.3% respectively, in the 2H and they combined to score 86 points for a 128 game total which stayed under for the game...So even though I like this game to go Over, I don't trust the 2nd half to go over, so I will take the 1Q and 1H over....Hopefully, getting "cute" like this does not backfire and they stay under 1Q and 1H and then explode in the 2H to go over the game total....This has happened more than once when I do this, but I feel "safer" taking the 1Q and 1H totals over than I do the game total....

Memphis -2.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- Bounce-back spot for Memphis here, so I am on them...

All picks (I was NOT crazy about this board at all, too early in the season...Which means I may go 14-6, but I could go 6-14, too)...I will post a 2H play if I bet one....

#1 Sides 3-0
#1 Totals 0-3

Sides
1) Mem, 2) NY, 3) Orl, 4) SA, 5) Det, 6) Pho, 7) Ind, 8) OKC, 9) Hou, 10) Utah

Totals
1) NY ov, 2) Mem ov, 3) SA ov, 4) Orl ov, 5) Ind ov, 6) Uta un, 7) Det un, 8) OKC un, 9) Hou un, 10) Pho un

GL...

[brewers7]

3-6, -$360

One play:

Phoenix Suns -3, $110 to $100 - classic short-revenge spot (2 teams playing each other within 7 days) and it's about as short as it gets as they played last night...

#1 Sides: 3-1
#1 Totals: 0-4

No bets on totals until I start seeing those better...

Sides:
1) Pho, 2) Bkn, 3) Was, 4) Bos, 5) Mil, 6) LAC, 7) NO, 8) Chi, 9) Phi, 10) LAL

Totals:
1) Bos ov, 2) Pho ov, 3) Was un, 4) NO un, 5) LAL ov, 6) Chi un, 7) Bkn un, 8) Phi un, 9) LAC un, 10) Mil un

GL...

[brewers7]

4-6, -$260

No bets today. I will not bet a total until I win one. Was 3-6 with #1 totals in the Preseason and now 0-5 in the regular season. Was 7-2 with #1 Sides in Preseason and 4-1 so far in the regular season. 3-11 vs 11-3, so any bets have to be on the Sides for now...

My top 2 picks are Portland and Utah. After the big road FAVs got killed yesterday, I am gun-shy about putting real money on Utah vs a weak OKC squad who happen to be 1-0...In the other game I like, Portland is only getting 3.5 with LeBron being a 50-50 game-time decision...If he plays, I expect the line to go up to 6 or 6.5 and if that happens, I will probably bet Portland. I want to bet that Memphis/Brooklyn under so bad with KD and Irving out but Memphis is 3rd in the league in PACE in the early going and you never know how a team playing their first back-ender of a back-to-back for the season is going to do, PACE-wise, meaning Brooklyn...Sometimes they will fly up and down the court...Sometimes not. The Nets are 13th in PACE right now...But like I said, I am not betting a total until I win a #1 total pick.

Sides:
1) Por, 2) Uta, 3) Hou, 4) Det, 5) Bkn

Totals:
Uta ov, 2) Hou ov, 3) Por ov, 4) Bkn un, 5) Det un

[brewers7]

4-6, -$260

#1 Sides: 4-2 (fixed another accounting error)
#1 Totals: 1-5 (finally a winner)

Quick note: Milwaukee has the angle I mentioned in an earlier play, where you "Always take the team facing an opponent for the first time of a new season after their opponent knocked them out of the playoffs the previous season"... 3-0 so far this year with 3 very easy wins, including Portland last night and the Mavericks 51-point win on Sunday... Just worried about a back-door Miami cover there...

Sides:
1) Bos, 2) Mil, 3) Den, 4) Tor, 5) Chi, 6) NY, 7) Det, 8) Pho, 9) OKC, 10) Min

Totals:
1) Pho un, 2) Bos ov, 3) Den ov, 4) OKC ov, 5) Tor ov, 6) Chi ov, NY ov, 8) Min un, 9) Det un, 10) Mil un

Note: 6 plays tonight -- Gonna take my top 3 sides and top 3 totals for $110 to win $100

GL...

[brewers7]

Forgot to post the lines:

Boston PK (+100)
Milwaukee -5.5
Denver -2
New Orleans/Phoenix un 222
Boston/Indiana ov 218
Denver/Sacramento ov 227

[brewers7]

Tuesday 5-1, +$390

9-7, +$130

#1 Sides: 5-2
#1 Totals: 2-5

Ok, getting there...Hopefully seeing it better now, especially the totals, now that we have 7 days worth of games in the books...PACEs for each team are being established and data is starting to accumulate...

Quick note: Due to covid, we are seeing some handicapping situations that you just have not seen in the regular season... Back-to-back games on back-to-back nights for 2 opponents against each other in the same arena... We have see these back-to-backs with the same opponent in the same arena a few times already this season, BUT, with a day of rest in between... Now we have Milwaukee at Miami on back-to-back nights and the Bucks just slaughtered Miami by 47 last night in this revenge spot that I mentioned last night that is now 4-0 this season with 4 cakewalk SU & ATS winners....

But I am a handicapper from the old Wayne Root school of handicapping who tends to "go against the obvious pick", or "fade the public", when appropriate, or as to borrow Wayne's phrase, I like a "don't make sense play"...Why would anybody think Miami can change the result of last night's 144-97 thrashing and cover 6 points tonight??...

Well, if you watch SportsCenter on ESPN, you know Milwaukee broke the league record for most 3-pointers made in a game...if you look at the boxscore, you will see that the Bucks shot 29-for-51 from 3-land (56.8%), while Miami shot 11-for-37 (29.7%)...This means that Milwaukee outscored the Heat by 54 points (89 to 33) from 3-point land...Miami also had 21 turnovers and were out-rebounded by the Bucks by 15...The Heat were out-rebounded on the offensive boards by 7, which is an indicator of effort/hustle, or lack thereof in this case...It was a total thrashing from start to finish in every phase of the game...The Heat were embarrassed on National TV (TNT) and they are now on NBA TV tonight... The Heat have all the motivation here... An embarrassed team becomes a motivated team...They were in the NBA Finals a couple of months ago...Hustle and effort can be fixed with motivation...Odds are strongly against Milwuakee breaking the league record for 3-pointers made 2 nights in a row...I get it, no Jimmy Butler again tonight, but Miami coach Eric Spoelstra is a very good coach and I expect him to have his team ready to play tonight as this squad does NOT want to be embarrassed 2 nights in a row on National TV and I wouldn't be surprised to see them win outright....

Sides:
1) Mia, 2) Bkn, 3) SA, 4) Por, 5) Cha, 6) Mem

Totals:
1) SA ov, Bkn un, 3) Cha un, 4) Por un, 5) Mem un, 6) Mia un

Note: 3 plays tonight

Miami +6
Brooklyn -5.5
LA Lakers/San Antonio over 229

[brewers7]

10-9, +$10

#1 Sides: 6-2
#1 Totals: 2-6

2 tough losses last night but the only hope there is that they even out over the course of the season...."That's gambling", as they say....

One bet for sure. I like a lot of dogs on the sides but may stalk for possible 2H plays.

Phoenix/Utah under 219.5 ($110 to win $100)

Sides:
1) NY, 2) NO, 3) Cle, 4) Chi, 5) Sac, 6) Pho, 7) Orl

Totals:
1) Pho un, 2) NY ov, 3) Chi ov, 4) NO un, 5) Cle un, 6) Orl un, 7) Sac un

GL...

[brewers7]

11-9, +$110

#1 Sides: 6-3
#1 Totals: 3-6

2 bets.

Milwaukee -14.5
Chicago/Milwaukee over 233
($110 to win $100 each)

Sides:
1) Milw, 2) Bos, 3) SA, 4) Den, 5) LAC, 6) Dal, 7) Cha, 8) Was, 9) Atl, 10) Por

Totals:
1) Milw ov, 2) Por ov, 3) Atl ov, 4) Den un, 5) LAC un, 6) Cha ov, 7) SA ov, 8) Bos ov, 9) Was un, 10) Dal un

GL...

[brewers7]

12-10, +$100

#1 Sides: 7-3
#1 Totals: 3-7

1 bet:

Toronto/New Orleans under 215.5 – laying $110 to win $100

Sides:
1) Orl, 2) Cle, 3) Cha, 4) NY, 5) Hou, 6) Tor

Totals:
1) Tor un, 2) Cha un, 3) Cle ov, 4) NY un, 5) Orl un, 6) Hou un,

GL...