Jay Edgar NBA, Saturday 01.20.07

[Jay Edgar]

Friday was the heaviest win-but-not-cover night of the year.

Could mean nothing, but it also seems consistent with pointspreads that are sharpening up.

Although on the pointspread side the Edgar numbers were able to find the right side at an above-average clip.

MONEYLINE PLAYS (at 1* each)
Friday 3-8, -4.57u
(ORL, TOR, PHI, BOS, CHA, NY, NOK, MIN, POR, MIL, DEN)
YTD 153-264, +40.14u

SAME TEAMS ATS (at 1* each)
Friday, 7-4, +2.80u
YTD 224-188 (.544), +26.60u

POWER RATINGS OVER LAST TEN GAMES
1 DAL 70
2 PHX 69
3 CHI 65
4 NJ 63
5 HOU 59
6 WAS 57
7 SAN 56
8 ORL 55
9 NY 54
10 LAX 53
11 SAC 51
12 CLE 51
13 MIA 51
14 IND 50
15 NOK 50
16 CHA 50
17 UTH 50
18 SEA 49
19 TOR 48
20 DEN 48
21 MIN 45
22 DET 45
23 LAC 44
24 MIL 43
25 POR 42
26 ATL 39
27 PHI 38
28 GS 38
29 MEM 37
30 BOS 36

EDGAR LINES FOR 01.20.07
(favorite-spread/moneyline-dog)

LAC 5.9/208 over MEM

CHA 6.3/234 over ATL

IND 4.0/161 over NY

WAS 7.1/268.6 over BOS

DET 2.7/131 over SAC

NOK 3.7/152 over LAX

NJ 6.3/234 over ORL

HOU 7.3/285 over DEN

CHI 6.9/262 over UTH

GS 4.7/171 over CLE


STRIKE PRICES (5%-OFF MARKER)
(At this moneyline or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-ML-OFF method.)

MEM +254, LAC -173

ATL +289, CHA -193

NY +194, IND -135

BOS +336, WAS -219

SAC +156, DET -110

LAX +182, NOK -128

ORL +289, NJ -193

DEN +360, HOU -232

UTH +327, CHI +214

CLE +206, GS -144

20%-OFF MARKER
(This moneyline is now 20% away from Edgar ML. Results this far out have been subpar.)

MEM +633, LAC +105

ATL +800, CHA -105

NY +414, IND +133

BOS +1101, WAS -118

SAC +308, DET +164

LAX +379, NOK +141

ORL +799, NJ -105

DEN +1297, HOU -123

UTH +1031, CHI -115

CLE +454, GS +125

[Jay Edgar]

Nate McMillian must have some extra money burning a hole in his pocket:

The Suns, winners of a franchise-record 15 straight earlier this season, dominated the game at the free throw line, making 22-of-23 to Portland's 6-of-7.

"The officials are basically telling us they don't see what I see," Portland coach Nate McMillan said. "It's been that way for a number of games. It seems to be that way when we play teams such as Phoenix, Miami and Cleveland. That's unbelievable, but what can you do?"

BTW, the Suns are DEAD LAST in the NBA in free throws per game -- as you might expect. Miami is 19th, Cleveland 12th.

But why let the truth ruin a nice conspiracy theory?

[Jay Edgar]

I'm not much of a totals handicapper -- (though I used to scalp them, back in the day -- early 2007).

Still, I think it's crazy the Griz-Clipper total is anything over 205-208 or so, where the Griz are terrible and the Cliipers under Dunleavy have shown a consistent ability to control the tempo when favored at home. (Though you need to toss out their last effort v GS)

Note that the game's an LA matinee, tipping at 330 eastern.

[lkravovicz]

right on JE, this is gonna cash in with ease!

[Jay Edgar]

I went a little crazy on it --
7 unders
4 qtrs, 2 halves, and the game

3rdQ went under by a point
but nothing else ever even in danger

7-0

[bigboydan]

Solid info as always Jay

[Hoja Verdes]

Any thoughts on the O/U 209 tonight in the WAS/BOS game?

[Jay Edgar]

Sorry HV -- just saw your post.

Because I thought the Celts might hang in (wrong?), I would have said over -- but not before issuing the big disclaimer that my leans on totals on the whole have been nothing to write home about. Cliipper game was really a once-a-month sort of thing.

Looks like it is going to be a close one. GL with whatever you did.

[Jay Edgar]

[moved to Sunday]