LAC play

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  • Ardy
    SBR Rookie
    • 01-13-20
    • 37

    #1
    LAC play
    Banked first play here at SBR, on collegiate bowl, small money, letting it ride on LAC over 231' tonight.

    Update - board lighting up, only a couple 231' left, 232 the prevalent number now, I'll use that for record keeping purposes here. No sense posting a play at a # most players can no longer get.

    From the collegiate bowl post:

    I'm a proponent of betting like dollar amounts, same size units. It's difficult enough to maintain the necessary winning percentage to show a profit without doing crazy stuff like varying your betting amounts with 1 unit plays, 5 unit plays, and nonsense like 10 unit plays.

    That said, I do make two types of bets:
    games I invest in, and games with small bucks on them just to have a little rooting action/fun.

    Obviously, this is not an investment game.

    The majority of my buys and recommended plays are college football and are from situational spots that I have tracked and logged data on for more than 12 years.

    I'm not a big NBA guy, pretty much unwatchable for me, but I know the game will be on in the background where I'll be tonight, so I'm playing the %'s here based on LAC play in B2B road games, and hoping they'll be draggin' ass on defense after the tough game vs Dallas and late flight last night.
    Based on same %'s, I'd toss a few $'s against them ATS too if they were playing a team with a pulse.
  • Ardy
    SBR Rookie
    • 01-13-20
    • 37

    #2
    And . . . Young just announced as out for the game.
    Fresh off of scoring 42 on Monday.

    Total down from a high of 236 to 227 now. F*ck.
    Oh well, it's part of the game.

    Can't buy off, # moved too much and it's small $ anyway, not worth the trouble.
    I added two plays in anger, small $ (I never make investments in NBA, action and fun only)
    76'ers Un 216 and St. Bonnie's Ov 139.
    Comment
    • Ardy
      SBR Rookie
      • 01-13-20
      • 37

      #3
      Marco, I saw your msg but am unable to reply in PM, not enough posts yet or something like that.

      To answer your question, no, I would not buy at 234, I was pushing it at 231'.
      For my #, I made it around 228, but like I said, I know it'll be on TV where I'll be at tonight so I took a shot.
      And now, as noted above, Young is out, and the # dropped from 236 to 226, back up to 227 now.

      Just a heads up, I'm not someone to tail on baskets or baseball, I do very little work on them.
      I do best in college football, the only sport where I make investment-size wagers, because of my history with it.
      I do hours of data mining there and mostly bet situational spots I have isolated over the years.
      Good luck with whatever you play today.
      Comment
      • marco14
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 11-21-14
        • 533

        #4
        Ardy, thanks for responding. Yeah the line changed drastically with players being out so I stayed away.
        Comment
        • Ardy
          SBR Rookie
          • 01-13-20
          • 37

          #5
          Marco - you're welcome. Glad you laid off the play, good move.

          Recap:
          Adding two games to offset the LAC play after Young was announced out was a good move, as both added plays hit, so instead of an 0-1 night I get a 2-1. I follow the Bonnies a bit, thought it was a good spot for an Over there, and pulled one outta my azz with the 76'ers Under 216 after they put up a 61 pt first qrtr.

          Back with more when I buy my next game. Have the North/South and All Star game nonsense to throw $ away on this weekend, but what the hell, I'm on the house's dime here now, so maybe I'll bite if I'm watching either one.
          Comment
          • Ardy
            SBR Rookie
            • 01-13-20
            • 37

            #6
            Don't have a college basketball post started, so adding this play here with NBA and other college plays:
            Fordham Un 32

            Small $, just playing a hunch and stat that shows Fordham in blowouts this year almost always scores fewer in the second half. Down by 25 (45-20) this spot fits, giving me a cushion of 12 pts to work with.
            Looking for some quit in the boys, and a slow pace in the final 10 minutes as Davidson should use most of the shot clock (although with college ya never f'ing know.)
            Comment
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