The Limper NBA – Week 1/14/20 - 1/20/20

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

[CallMeJinx]

1/17:
Projected ATS winners based off your image.
CHI +7.5
SA -8.5

1/17 Results posted based off your image
PHI -6.5
ATL +9

Why did the system change the side to make it look like a win? I only noticed these because I took them.

[WillyBoy]

1/17:
Projected ATS winners based off your image.
CHI +7.5
SA -8.5

1/17 Results posted based off your image
PHI -6.5
ATL +9

Why did the system change the side to make it look like a win? I only noticed these because I took them.

The key is the projected MOV which never changes, but as lines change, the model’s projected winner could easily flip – as it did in your 2 examples. In your first example, the projected MOV was PHI by 7.1, and the line was PHI -7.5, which made Chicago the projected ATS winner. When the line dropped, however, to PHI -6.5, the model’s final pick naturally flipped to Philadelphia. Similarly, in your second example, the projected MOV was SAN by 8.9 and with a line of -8.5, the model projected a San Antonio cover. However, the line jumped to -9.0 which, being more than the model projected SAN to win by – 8.9 – the pick flipped to Atlanta.

In these instances the pick flips were “wins”, but more often such flips become “losses”; however, I have found that using closing lines to grade the model is the best, most accurate, and public way to do so. Using the lines from the original post is too arbitrary a way to grade accuracy.

Ps. I lost on San Antonio too, and I got it at -9 – against the model’s MOV projection! Popovitch rested his team in the 4^th qtr – they just didn’t play defense – and the Hawks outscored them 33 to 21! Which is so typical of Popovitch I should have known.

[WillyBoy]

[WillyBoy]

[CallMeJinx]

The key is the projected MOV which never changes, but as lines change, the model’s projected winner could easily flip – as it did in your 2 examples. In your first example, the projected MOV was PHI by 7.1, and the line was PHI -7.5, which made Chicago the projected ATS winner. When the line dropped, however, to PHI -6.5, the model’s final pick naturally flipped to Philadelphia. Similarly, in your second example, the projected MOV was SAN by 8.9 and with a line of -8.5, the model projected a San Antonio cover. However, the line jumped to -9.0 which, being more than the model projected SAN to win by – 8.9 – the pick flipped to Atlanta.

In these instances the pick flips were “wins”, but more often such flips become “losses”; however, I have found that using closing lines to grade the model is the best, most accurate, and public way to do so. Using the lines from the original post is too arbitrary a way to grade accuracy.

Ps. I lost on San Antonio too, and I got it at -9 – against the model’s MOV projection! Popovitch rested his team in the 4^th qtr – they just didn’t play defense – and the Hawks outscored them 33 to 21! Which is so typical of Popovitch I should have known.

Makes sense, I thought those were the final takes each day. Post these 15min before game time! Lol, BOL 🍻

[WillyBoy]

Makes sense, I thought those were the final takes each day. Post these 15min before game time! Lol, BOL 

When I first started posting NBA projections (and I was just a 70 year old kid), I used to post all during the day, right up to a couple minutes before tip-off for each game. Well, that was then, this is (sigh) now – lol

[CallMeJinx]

When I first started posting NBA projections (and I was just a 70 year old kid), I used to post all during the day, right up to a couple minutes before tip-off for each game. Well, that was then, this is (sigh) now – lol

haha commitment! You may be one of the most experienced cappers here. Also, I was joking, just have to wait for line movement. 🍻🍻