Starting off the thread with a barnburner of a game.
1 NBA play for 12/1:
1 NBA play for 12/1:
- Golden State (+7) @ -120
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Horrible pick by me last night. I totally ignored situational factors such as GSW playing 3 games in 4 nights, and playing back to back game while traveling. Also it looks like Dramond Green did not play.
Questions to consider:
1. How do you quantify back to back situations, like how many points is a back to back worth in the line?
2. Where is the best place to find daily lineup information?
1 NBA play for 12/2:
Dallas (-4) (-120)
YTD: 1-1 -0.2 unitsComment -
DFS is the best thing to happen to basketball betting in recent years... You can get lineup information from fantasy sites, as opposed to visiting local pages/ twitter feeds.Comment -
1 NBA play for 12/5:
Phoenix (+5) (-120)
Update: Line went to 4.5 so I bought the hook to get it at 5.
My concern here is the back to back for Phoenix, and Aron Baynes looks to be out (thanks for the tip by IBetYou). I'll gladly take the points though from a team on a five game losing streak.
YTD: 2-1 +0.8 unitsComment -
1 NBA play for 12/6
Miami (-9) (-120) - PUSH
Heat are 8-0 SU and ATS at home. They are coming off a blowout loss and their opponent is on a back to back.
YTD: 2-1-1 +0.8 unitsComment -
1 NBA play for 12/7
Dallas (-8) (-120)
Buying the hook saved me from a loss last night with Miami, gonna buy the line down to 8 with the early action on the Mavs. It is close revenge for their opponent, but not sure how much that matters in the NBA.
YTD: 3-1-1 +1.8 unitsComment -
1 NBA play for 12/8
Dallas (-7) (-120)
Going back to the well with the Mavs.
YTD: 3-2-1 +0.6 unitsComment -
1 NBA play for 12/9
OKC Thunder(+8.5) (-110)
YTD: 4-2-1 +1.6 unitsComment -
1 NBA play for 12/11
OKC Thunder (+2) (-110)
Going with another play on the Thunder. 4-1 ATS in the last 5, and their opponent, Sac-town, is playing their first home game after a four game road trip. So all in all liking the spot here as well as the number. I was also gonna go with Milwaukee, but since G is out gonna lay off. Good luck all.
YTD: 5-2-1 +2.6 unitsComment -
1 NBA play for 12/13
Milwaukee Bucks (-9)(-130)
I am getting on board the train and hoping the buck does not stop here tonight. Giannis may not play which would hurt their chances, but that didn't seem to matter last game. Milwaukee has covered 5 of their last 6, and I like the spot here being that it is the first game back from a four game road trip for their opponent.
YTD: 6-2-1 +3.6 unitsComment -
GL tonightComment -
1 NBA play for 12/14
OKC Thunder (+7) (-120)
They covered 5 of their last 6 games and are 8-4 ATS on the road this year. I don't love the spot being its the last game of a road trip for them, but I think they will be motivated to take on the division leading Nugs. I am also thinking Milwaukee tonight, but am waiting to see about G. Maybe tease them with OKC.
YTD: 6-3-1 +2.4 units
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Appreciate the feedback. I do see who Mil has on deck and they are probably looking a head a little to those games. Plus them being on a back to back where they had to rally in the 4th quarter last night. I'd be surprised if Giannis plays, but either way probably best to pass.Comment -
3 NBA plays for 12/16
OKC Thunder (-5) (-120)
Dallas Mavs(+11)
Toronto (-12) (-120)
I am buying the .5 pt where needed to make the line whole. I know Luka is out but I have always heard you can find value in the line when a star player goes down, at least for that first game. Milwaukee look ahead to the LAL game perhaps, but I will gladly take 11 points for a top western conference team. Chicago on the road playing 3 games in 4 nights, and OKC off of two losses, liking the small line. The Toronto play is more about how bad Cleveland is right now. I am hoping Toronto can find some chemistry tonight.
YTD: 8-4-1 +3.2 units
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1 NBA play for 12/18
CHARLOTTE(+3)
Two teams going in opposite directions here. Hornets are 4-1 SU in their last 5, and their opponent Cleveland should not be favored against anyone at this point. Charlotte on a back to back with is troublesome but they are 5-1 ATS in the second of back to backs this year.
YTD: 9-4-1 +4.2 unitsComment -
Close one last night with Charlotte. The line between winning and losing in this game is so thin. Having some good fortune right now.
1 NBA play for 12/19
Utah Jazz (-6.5)
Feeling good about this play. Jazz have found some momentum lately, and will hope to keep it going into this mini 3 game road trip against the East.
YTD: 9-5-1 +3.1 unitsComment -
GL with the actionComment -
2 NBA plays for 12/20
Toronto (-6) (-120)
Miami (-9)
I am liking two solid home teams tonight. Both should win, but as I am learning the line is so sharp it seems like it could go either way in most of these games. Maybe think about a two team teaser or something. Miami is 8-2 ATS as a home favorite, while Toronto is 9-3 ATS in that same spot. Toronto is bit with the injury bug, but it looks like Van Fleet will play tonight, and I like their coach so he should be able to manage. Miami should win easily, just a matter of how motivated they are to blow out the Knicks.
YTD: 10-6-1 +3.0 units
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Question for sharps: Is there a point in the season where you disregard the stats from games very early in the season?Comment -
1 NBA plays for 12/21
Brooklyn (-7)
Fade the Hawks the last game before they get John Collins back. Also Brooklyn has good numbers coming off of a SU loss (8-3-1 ATS after SU loss), and they are 8-5 ATS overall at home. Their opponent on the other hand is 3-9 ATS after an ATS win, and 5-10 ATS on the road overall.
YTD: 11-6-1 +4.0 unitsComment -
1 NBA play for 12/25
Milwaukee Bucks (-2)
Maybe just play the money line for the Bucks. Merry Christmas all!
YTD: 11-7-1 +2.9 unitsComment -
1 NBA play for 12/26
OKC Thunder (-6)
YTD: 11-8-1 +1.8 unitsComment -
1 NBA play for 12/28
Indiana Pacers (-1)
Indy off of a loss and NOLA's first game home after a four game road trip. I expect they will be little sluggish. Indy is the much better team here, right? What am I missing with this line?Comment