Jay Edgar NBA, Friday 01.05.07

[Jay Edgar]

MONEYLINE PLAYS (at 1* each)
Thursday, 0-2, -2.00u
(NOK, IND)
Lakers qualified during parts of the day, but not as measured by closing price
YTD 123-207, +35.96u

SAME TEAMS ATS (at 1* each)
Thursday, 0-1-1, -1.05u
YTD 176-149 (.542), +19.65u

POWER RATINGS OVER LAST 10 GAMES
1 PHX 70
2 DAL 67
3 MIL 65
4 CHI 61
5 SAC 56
6 LAX 56
7 SAN 56
8 LAC 55
9 WAS 55
10 MIN 55
11 DET 55
12 CLE 55
13 ORL 54
14 HOU 52
15 PHI 50
16 UTH 50
17 CHA 49
18 IND 48
19 NJ 48
20 GS 48
21 TOR 48
22 MEM 47
23 NY 47
24 DEN 44
25 BOS 39
26 MIA 37
27 SEA 34
28 NOK 33
29 POR 31
30 ATL 29

EDGAR LINES FOR 01.05.07
(favorite-spread/ML-dog)

ORL 5.2/182 over CHA

TOR 6.6/251 over ATL

WAS 4.9/175 over LAC

NJ 2.8/1332 over CHI

MIN 3.5/145 over PHI

MEM 4.0/162 over BOS

SAN 3.5/144 over DAL

HOU 3.8/154 over UTH

MIL 6.5/249 over CLE

SEA 2.6/127 over NY

PHX 8.1/334 over MIA

LAX 6.2/231 over DEN

STRIKE PRICES
(at this ML or better, team is a play both SU and ATS under 5%-OFF method)

CHA +219, ORL -152

ATL +311, TOR -206

LAC +211, WAS -147

CHI +157, NJ -111

PHI +173, MIN -122

BOS +195, MEM -136

DAL +172, SAN -121

UTH +184, HOU -129

CLE +309, MIL -204

NY +151, SEA -108

MIA +431, PHX -267

DEN +284, LAX -191

[Jay Edgar]

Strike price for the Heat +431. LOL.

No ML yet, but assume we'll see one somewhere. If it's not 1000 basis points higher than +431, I'll eat my hat.




EDIT: Opens at +3000

[adriano]

If the Heat win this game i'll eat my hat for real.

I'm wondering whether to play the 1st half Suns -10. Last 3 times they played, the Suns led by around 20 at the half.
Where is DarkHorse to give us his insight on the Suns?

[dave11486]

Jay let me know what you play tonight bud?

[Jay Edgar]

Looks like 9 games above the strike price and I'll leave at least something with each, though in order DAL, NJ, PHI, and MIL appeal most at this point.

Also like UTH ML as the Rockets have had two weak wins in a row.

And weekend steam on a favorite usually makes me fond of the other side.

[Razz]

What about Denver tonight Jay? I just played them small at +6.5, and was thinking about making it a decent play.

[Jay Edgar]

The price is getting tempting, I'll admit.

I'm a little put off by DEN's last 3 losses -- two of them to PHI and NOK. All the earmarks of a club playing consitently far below par, though maybe it's more just getting their bearings again posttrade.

The really interesting factor is the Lakers OT win last night -- hard to know what to make of it when this LAX team has been given exactly one BTB this year. (Conspiracy theory, anyone?).

At +7 DEN starts to look not bad, though.

[bigboydan]

This line received a double shot of steam today I noticed today. However, I must agree with you both in regards to the juicy price with Denver tonight. I'll probably end up biting too if it reaches 7.