raptors futures bet

[starberryape]

i have on my best book raptors to win the east @ +125, and to win the championship at +650.

i think theres opportunity here to bet them to win championships, and hedging the other team in the finals - which would most likely will yield significantly more than the posted +125 to win the east.

of course this is assuming we believe raptors are the favorites to come out of the east this year, and oddsmakers have them as the favorites at the moment.

thoughts?

[gojetsgomoxies]

big raptors fan......... i think in time GSW will be much better than raptors. see toronto vs. cleveland from previous seasons (although i don't expect it to be that extreme)... i think boston will get it together and milwaukee will be very good. not a believe in philly

one big problem with raptors is that they aren't that much better with both leonard/lowry playing as they are with only one of them playing. i think it was similar with DD/lowry

i do like the raptors character, bench and depth... i should add i personally think leonard is overrated (i'm making that comment relative to people saying he's top 3 or top 5 in NBA.. if you say he's top 20, then he's not overrated)

basically i don't see that much has changed since you made your bet. doing it in my head, but that conference odds on raptors looks like 41-42% after juice (44.4% pre-juice). i think that's too high........ note: note sure if adjusting ML for the teams adding up to more than 100% is technically juice but it has the same effect

[gojetsgomoxies]

also, i would just wait until they make the finals. that's where the real payoff and the leverage to your unique viewpoint is.

i haven't thought this through, but someone might have a theory that the conditional odds might change over time (i.e. toronto 40% to win east, and then 27% to win the finals if they make it)

[Grits n' Gravy]

Way too early to sweat future bet at short odds. We put in a bunch of futures on title and conference in July and won’t worry about hedging until postseason. Raptors are legit. Kawhi is back and killing everyone. No reason they won’t be in the mix.

Have tor at 60/1 and 8/1 on title and east. Okc at 75/1 and 35/1 title and west. Longer odds on Indy, Jazz, bucks, pelicans and Portland.

I liked Gst and Boston but odds weren’t great for Celtics and can make better roi on warriors in finals

[gojetsgomoxies]

i would add that toronto has lost 2 of their last 5 games by more than 25 points each (injuries i know). i would say the play right now would be more a FADE of toronto although i don't feel very strongly about that.

[gojetsgomoxies]

how did subsequent bettor get toronto at 8-1 for the east?.. pre-lebron-kawhi? (although i would say lebron going to LAL was highly predictable)

[Grits n' Gravy]

how did subsequent bettor get toronto at 8-1 for the east?.. pre-lebron-kawhi? (although i would say lebron going to LAL was highly predictable)

Yes on the odds

[garygroundwork]

Raps are gona need HCA to win it... u probably have to put your money on them if your betting east futures but

Boston will come good
Bucks are killing it
Philly are tough