NBA - Thursday, 11/1/18

[LT Profits]

1 NBA Play Thursday

Hornets -1.5 -105 (Heritage)


YTD: 22-14, +7.48

[LT Profits]

1 NBA Addition

2 NBA Plays Thursday

Hornets -1.5 -105 (Heritage)
Pelicans +4.5 -105 (Heritage)

[sheedy17]

BOL, I am looking at Charlotte ML myself.

[europe_baller]

Again probably disagree with hornets ml.. most likely I am on the other side.. OKC will find its groove and russ and PG can win these type of games on its own... Glad I was right about spurs yesterday lol.. Also not sure about pelicans game, keep up great work..Good luck

[ikid2groove415]

LT any opinions on Cavs vs nuggets?

[sheedy17]

Again probably disagree with hornets ml.. most likely I am on the other side.. OKC will find its groove and russ and PG can win these type of games on its own... Glad I was right about spurs yesterday lol.. Also not sure about pelicans game, keep up great work..Good luck

OKL and Charlotte are BOTH teams that worry me and seem to be iffy each night lol, don't know what to do when they play....

[Mike Brownwell]

I got Charlotte-1 on Bovada. Easy decision getting better line than LT Profits put out. Have a feeling this line only goes up. Great job in NBA LT Profits!

[LT Profits]

LT any opinions on Cavs vs nuggets?

I get Denver -5.48 but I am leery of the RLM.

[stackz125]

What about the boston game?

[LT Profits]

What about the boston game?

I am considering Milwaukee, could be late addition.

[KDF500]

Pelicans strictly a model play?

[LT Profits]

Pelicans strictly a model play?

Well, technically all plays are model plays since i never go against the model.

The question becomes which model plays do I use and which do I lay off of. I think Pels playing on back-to-back is actually giving them added value here as model has Blazers -2.86

[KDF500]

Got it. I worded that incorrectly

thanks buddy.

[coolguy73739]

Blazer -4.5 is just about the right play..
I don't normally play spreads but there's plenty value +EV in this spread as per my model..
SORRY LT for barging into your thread but just tempted to give my 2cents..

[ikid2groove415]

Blazer -4.5 is just about the right play..
I don't normally play spreads but there's plenty value +EV in this spread as per my model..
SORRY LT for barging into your thread but just tempted to give my 2cents..

What makes blazer the right play? Besides b2b and homecourt? This is a team the pelicans know they can beat -

[LT Profits]

And now AD ruled out again after he played last night. Maybe I should lay off New Orleans games from now on.

[ikid2groove415]

And now AD ruled out again after he played last night. Maybe I should lay off New Orleans games from now on.

LT seen many times star player out and the Team still win - not suggesting it will happen tonight - but seen it enough

[LT Profits]

LT seen many times star player out and the Team still win - not suggesting it will happen tonight - but seen it enough

Not the point, I took +4.5 on game that is now +8.5

[eddycash]

Pelicans line moved 4 points LT still like it?

[ikid2groove415]

Not the point, I took +4.5 on game that is now +8.5

I believe u still won like this few nights ago - got pelicans 6 and it went to 9

[ikid2groove415]

Why don’t books just keep the dam game off the board untill confirmation on star players?

[Mike Brownwell]

LT I’m seeing up to +9 out there now. The other day you took New Orleans +6 1/2 against Denver factoring in Davis was out.
When he was ruled out officially it went to +9 Hence providing value because the books did not factor it in like you thought. New Orleans covered the +6
1/2 and the + 9 was not a sweat. Is this a similar situation? Your model I believe had this game at 2.8. Is Davis worth 6+ points and at +9 would you recommend now?

[LT Profits]

Pelicans line moved 4 points LT still like it?

I would pass at current market, after taking out AD, I get Blazers -7.36

Pels may become playable again if number hits 9.5

Of course this is all moot to me, locked in at atrocious number.

[LT Profits]

LT I’m seeing up to +9 out there now. The other day you took New Orleans +6 1/2 against Denver factoring in Davis was out.
When he was ruled out officially it went to +9 Hence providing value because the books did not factor it in like you thought. New Orleans covered the +6
1/2 and the + 9 was not a sweat. Is this a similar situation? Your model I believe had this game at 2.8. Is Davis worth 6+ points and at +9 would you recommend now?

This is different though, I assumed AD was out that other game. This time it took me by surprise. Looks like model gives AD value of 4.5 points, see my new line of 7.36

[eddycash]

thanks LT ill pass for now

[KDF500]

Not the point, I took +4.5 on game that is now +8.5

Didn’t effect your last outcome with pelicans vs Denver. Probably won’t here either...

[KDF500]

I’m seeing Pelicans ML here...

[LT Profits]

Didn’t effect your last outcome with pelicans vs Denver. Probably won’t here either...

As I've explained, this is different. I already had AD out of my model few nights ago. This time I had him in.

[LT Profits]

What about the boston game?

I added Milwaukee

[LT Profits]

1 Last NBA Addition

3 NBA Plays Thursday

Hornets -1.5 -105 (Heritage)
Bucks +2.5 -102 (5 Dimes)
Pelicans +4.5 -105 (Heritage)

[KDF500]

I should have read previous posts before posting that. Hoping you hit that regardless.