NBA - Wednesday, 10/31/18

[LT Profits]

2 NBA Plays Wednesday

Suns +7.5 -105 (Heritage)
Lakers -7.5 -105 (Heritage)


YTD: 21-11, +9.60

[lakerboy]

On Suns as well

[sheedy17]

BOL, looking at suns now if the early games works out

[europe_baller]

I like spurs there..think they will out execute suns.. after some tough wins..without booker this team is really weak.. why do you like suns?

[LT Profits]

I like spurs there..think they will out execute suns.. after some tough wins..without booker this team is really weak.. why do you like suns?

Strictly a model play, I have Suns +5.5 at home without Booker. And hopefully, they won't want to get embarrassed on ESPN.

[sunnyblue88]

Is home team's national TV appearance a parameter of your model as well? Solid start and good luck.

[ikid2groove415]

LT will the Lakers make the playoff?

[LT Profits]

Is home team's national TV appearance a parameter of your model as well? Solid start and good luck.

No not at all, I just threw that second sentence in for fun once I saw game was on ESPN. You can ignore it and just focus on first sentence.

[LT Profits]

LT will the Lakers make the playoff?

They have a chance, although as of this second they are my 10th rated Western team. That is subject to change though of course.

[ikid2groove415]

You think bulls ML have good value? People don’t understand Denver isn’t a good road team - it’s been like this for years ...

[sunnyblue88]

Ok, Let me try another one. Comparing with last season, did you actually twist your model and take into account this season's rule change, less defense and faster pace?

[LT Profits]

You think bulls ML have good value? People don’t understand Denver isn’t a good road team - it’s been like this for years ...

Too close for me, I get Denver 76% (-317). I would need closer to +400 to consider Chicago.

[LT Profits]

Ok, Let me try another one. Comparing with last season, did you actually twist your model and take into account this season's rule change, less defense and faster pace?

Pace is a component yes. That is a huge reason why I am 10-1 on totals so far (Probably all Overs although I'd have to double check).

[LT Profits]

Pace is a component yes. That is a huge reason why I am 10-1 on totals so far (Probably all Overs although I'd have to double check).

Confirmed, all 11 of my Total plays have been Overs.

[sheedy17]

You think bulls ML have good value? People don’t understand Denver isn’t a good road team - it’s been like this for years ...

what about the bulls not being a good team no matter where they play?

[sunnyblue88]

Confirmed, all 11 of my Total plays have been Overs.

I am asking this because I did poorly so far and it seems things have changed a lot. Not just totals, seems some teams might be more adapted to the changes or even we could say the changes favor their style, giving them an edge to cover the spread.

[ikid2groove415]

what about the bulls not being a good team no matter where they play?

You are welcome 2 take Denver Tonight pal -

[jjgold]

Laker so due but with no defense they can lose

[Frank Mills]

LBJ has made the finals the last 6 or 7 years. Making the playoffs will be step 1 of the King's systematic strategy so yes the Lakers will def make the playoffs. They will also def win tonight, as the fire has been lit. Can you feel it ? If you cap on feel than you can feel it. If not, you in the wrong biz or you a stat man. With that said, does a handicapper play the game hard tonight or standard ? 5 unit play ? Money Line ? These are very valid and important decisions. In my opinion, this is an example of a game to pound. If you lose, don't TILT but be willing to add that money back to your roll via work. Take the loss and reload out of pocket from hard work and if you can do that than you can anything !

They have a chance, although as of this second they are my 10th rated Western team. That is subject to change though of course.

[sheedy17]

You are welcome 2 take Denver Tonight pal -

already locked in Denver -6.5

[Frank Mills]

I thought the Spurs looked like horse shit last game out. Suns +7 in PHX seems like a really good play. I just can't envision them getting blownout at home by an avg team like the SAS.

On Suns as well

[Frank Mills]

me 3

already locked in Denver -6.5

[Mike Brownwell]

Pace is a component yes. That is a huge reason why I am 10-1 on totals so far (Probably all Overs although I'd have to double check).

This podcast breaks down LT Profits Totals in the NBA this year in depth Also the podcast recaps his plays last night and for his NBA card tonight.

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/sbrltprofits/2018/10/31/sbr-lt-profits-sports-picks-review

[Mike Brownwell]

After listening to the podcast it confirms

1 He is 10-1 on Over/Unders this year
2 Every total play has been an over
3 His only loss this year was on Oct 22 Pacers/T Wolves (Over 227)
4 When LT Profits released an Over pick only twice did the Over pick go the opposite direction on Pinnacle
5 He has only released 3 Overs in the last week compared to 8 in the first week and half of the season
6 It seems LT was ahead of the curve on the overs and now the books are releasing sharper Over/Unders. Hence now he is releasing more point spread picks

[LT Profits]

After listening to the podcast it confirms

1 He is 10-1 on Over/Unders this year
2 Every total play has been an over
3 His only loss this year was on Oct 22 Pacers/T Wolves (Over 227)
4 When LT Profits released an Over pick only twice did the Over pick go the opposite direction on Pinnacle
5 He has only released 3 Overs in the last week compared to 8 in the first week and half of the season
6 It seems LT was ahead of the curve on the overs and now the books are releasing sharper Over/Unders. Hence now he is releasing more point spread picks

A long-winded way of saying books have adjusted totals upward. And sadly, very accurate.

[europe_baller]

I thought the Spurs looked like horse shit last game out. Suns +7 in PHX seems like a really good play. I just can't envision them getting blownout at home by an avg team like the SAS.

Suns are way below average especially without Booker.. spurs still have 2 all stars.. dont like them too much in the west but oh man.. 10 pt victory is not a blowout..we will see, havent played spurs yet

[sheedy17]

Suns are way below average especially without Booker.. spurs still have 2 all stars.. dont like them too much in the west but oh man.. 10 pt victory is not a blowout..we will see, havent played spurs yet

No booker and SA is a good team.. might stay away

[tokyotuna]

Gl on both w u

[Mr. NBA]

already locked in Denver -6.5

What book and at what time did you get a -6.5


Thanks

[Frank Mills]

https://www.covers.com/sports/NBA/Odds/linehistory?eventId=993054

I don't even see -7

[sheedy17]

What book and at what time did you get a -6.5


Thanks

Pinnacle, around 1pm, they allow you to go down a few points , originally it was around 7.5 but I paid more for a lower spread.

[sheedy17]

https://www.covers.com/sports/NBA/Od...eventId=993054


I don't even see -7

I posted it in my daily pick thread earlier today

Pinnacle offers it at -7right now -133

[Frank Mills]

cool

[Frank Mills]

-7 -133 is -8 -110 so the line is -8

[LT Profits]

2 Last NBA Additions

4 NBA Plays Wednesday

Pelicans +9 -102 (5 Dimes)
Pelicans / Warriors OVER 239.5 -105 (Heritage)
Suns +7.5 -105 (Heritage)
Lakers -7.5 -105 (Heritage)