Math Man's Prediction Plays - NBA Playoff Edition

[aljack]

Saturday April 14th - Game 1.


Golden State: ATS

Overall:
Tailing: (34-47, -16.06)Fading: (47-34, +8.77u)

At Home:
Tailing (16-24 -9.44u)
Fading: (24-16, +5.84u)

As Fav:
Tailing: (33-42, -11.97u)
Fading: (42-33, +5.22u)

San Antonio: ATS
Overall:
Tailing: (40-38, -1.6u)
Fading: (38-40, -5.42u)

On The Road:
Tailing: (15-24, -10.35u)
Fading: (24-15, +6.84u)

As Dog:
Tailing: (10-12 -2.9u)
Fading: (12-10, +0.92u)

Golden State: O/U
Over: (40-41, -4.6u)
Under: (41-40, -2.69u)

San Antonio: O/U
Over: (38-44, -9.42u)
Under: (44-38, +2.04u)



Betting Trends:
Fading Previous Year's Finals Teams - ATS as Favs: 86-52, +30.71u
Fading Previous Year's Finals Teams - ATS: 97-66, +26.92u

Team ATS Trends:

Tailing Warriors:
Warriors are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 Conference Quarterfinals games. (+13.93u)

Fading Warriors:
Warriors are 9-24-1 ATS in their last 34 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. (+12.84u)

Team Total Trends:

Warriors Under:
Under is 19-7 in Warriors last 26 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. (+10.29u)
--

Measure Of Expectation Rating (MOE)


Margin Of Victory Rating (MOV)


Cover % Rating (CPR)


Over/Under Trend %


Over/Under Margin


Net Efficiency Rating:


NET PPG Rating:


Pace Prediction:


Math Man's Pick: Spurs +8, u206

----------------------------------------------------------------------



Toronto: ATS

Overall:
Tailing: (43-38, +1.13u)Fading: (38-43, -8.42u)

At Home:
Tailing (21-19, +0.11u)
Fading: (19-21 -3.71u)

As Fav:
Tailing: (34-33 -2.06u)
Fading33-34 -3.97u)

Washington: ATS
Overall:
Tailing: (37-44 -10.33u)
Fading: (44-37 +3.04u)

On The Road:
Tailing: (21-20 -.89u)
Fading: (20 21 -2.8u)

As Dog:
Tailing: (18-11 +5.38u)
Fading: (11-18 -7.99u)

Raptors: O/U
Over: (40-40 -3.6u)
Under: (40-40 -3.6u)

Washington: O/U
Over: (37-44 -10.33u)
Under: (44-37 +3.04u)

Team ATS Trends:

Fading Wizards: last 8 road games. (7-1, +5.37u)
Fading Raptors: last 26 Conference Quarterfinals games. (18-7, +9.38u)

Team Total Trends:
Wizards OVER: last 53 games playing on 2 days rest. (36-17, +15.76u)
Raptors OVER: last 13 Conference Quarterfinals games. (10-3, +6.1u)

Head To Head Trends:
Under: last 14 meetings in Toronto. (12-2, +8.92u)
Wizards ATS: last 8 meetings in Toronto. (6-2, +3.46u)
--

Measure Of Expectation Rating (MOE)


Margin Of Victory Rating (MOV)


Cover % Rating (CPR)


Over/Under Trend %


Over/Under Avg Margin


Net Efficiency Rating:


NET PPG Rating:


Pace Prediction:


Math Man's Pick: Raptors -8, o211

-------------------------------------------------------------------------



Philadelphia : ATS

Overall:
Tailing: (47-33, +9.77u)Fading: (33-47, -16.97u)

At Home:
Tailing (27-14 +10.57u)
Fading: (14-27, -14.26u)

As Fav:
Tailing: (34-21 +9.94u)
Fading21-34 -14.89u)

Miami: ATS
Overall:
Tailing: (40-36 +.4u)
Fading: (36-40 -7.24u)

On The Road:
Tailing: (24-15 +6.84u)
Fading: (15-24 -10.35u)

As Dog:
Tailing: (22-15 +5.02u)
Fading: (15-22 -8.35u)

Sixers: O/U
Over: (41-40 -2.69u)
Under: (40-41 -4.6u)

Heat: O/U
Over: (40-36 +.4u)
Under: (36-40 -7.24u)

Team ATS Trends:

Tail Heat: last 37 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. (26-9, +14.66u,)
Tail Sixers: last 24 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. (18-6, +10.38u)

Team Total Trends:
Heat OVER: last 12 road games. (9-3, +5.19u)
Sixers UNDER: last 10 vs. NBA Southeast. (7-3, +3.37u)

Head To Head Trends:
Home Team ATS: last 8 meetings. (6-1, +4.46u)
OVER: last 7 meetings in Philadelphia. (5-2, +2.55u)
--

Measure Of Expectation Rating (MOE)


Margin Of Victory Rating (MOV)


Cover % Rating (CPR)


Over/Under Trend %


Over/Under Avg Margin


Net Efficiency Rating:


NET PPG Rating:


Pace Prediction:


Math Man's Pick: Sixers -6.5, u213.5

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Final Saturday Game and Sunday Games To Be Added...

[aljack]

Measure Of Expectation Rating (MOE)


Margin Of Victory Rating (MOV)


Cover % Rating (CPR)


Over/Under Trend %


Over/Under Avg Margin


Net Efficiency Rating:


NET PPG Rating:


Pace Prediction:


Math Man's Pick: Portland -5.5, u217

[aljack]

Heat vs Sixers (Game 2) Sixers Lead 1-0

Warriors Vs Spurs (Game 2) Warriors Lead 1-0



Pace Predictor (11-4, +6.01u)



Net Efficiency Rating: All (5-2, +2.55u)


Net PPG Rating: ATS (9-6, +2.19u)


O/U Margin: (3-1, +1.73u)


O/U %: (2-0, +1.82u)


Measure Of Expectation Rating: (4-3, +0.64u)



Math Man's Picks:

PHI -6.5, u216
GS -9.5, o205

[aljack]

Raptors/Wizards – GM 2: (TOR leads series 1-0)

Pace Predictor Model:
ALL: (13-5, +6.83u)ATS: (7-2, +4.37u)
TOTALS: (5-3, +1.55u)

Net PPG Model
ALL: (11-7, +3.01u)
ATS: (6-3, +2.46u)
TOTALS: (5-4, +0.55u)

Net EFFICIENCY Model
ATS: (6-3, +2.46u)

O/U % (2-0, +1.82u)
O/U Margin: (3-2, +0.73u)

+EV ATS TRENDS:
Fading Raptors: last 27 Tuesday games. (20-7, +11.2u)
+EV O/U TRENDS:
Wizards OVER: last 54 games playing on 2 days rest. (37-17, +16.67u)

---

Celtics/Bucks (BOS leads series 1-0)

Pace Predictor Model:

Net PPG Model


Net EFFICIENCY Model


O/U %


O/U Margin

+EV ATS TRENDS
Tailing Celtics: last 67 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. (45-21, +19.95u)
+EV O/U TRENDS
Bucks OVER: last 27 overall. (20-7, +11.2u)
Celtics OVER: last 53 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. (38-14, +20.58u)

---

Blazers/Pelicans (NWO leads series 1-0)

Pace Predictor Model:

Net PPG Model


Net EFFICIENCY Model


O/U %


O/U Margin


+EV ATS TRENDS
Tail PELICANS: last 26 games following a ATS win. (19-7, +10.29u)
Fade BLAZERS: last 30 Conference Quarterfinals games. (21-7, +12.11u)

---

Math Man’s Picks:
Raptors -7, o214
Celtics -2, o198.5
Pelicans +6, o214,

[aljack]

Math Man’s NBA Prediction Preview – Game 2 Edition III

Pace Predictor
ALL: (19-6, +11.25u)
ATS: (10-2, +7.10u)
TOTALS: (7-4, +2.37u)

Net PPG Model
ALL: (15-9, +4.61)
ATS: (8-4, +3.28u)
TOTALS: (6-5, +0.46u)
Net Efficiency Model
ALL: (9-4, +4.15u)
ATS: (8-4, +3.28),

O/U %
TOTALS: (3-0, +2.73u)

O/U Margin of Expectation
TOTALS: (3-2, +0.73u)

---

Math Man Picks:
OKC -4.5

[aljack]

Math Man’s NBA Prediction Preview – Game 3 Edition I



Pace Predictor
ALL: (18-12, +4.25u) (-135 Odds Or Better)
ATS: (10-5, +4.10u)
ML: (1-0, +0.87u)
TOTALS: (7-7, -0.63u)

Net Efficiency Model
ALL: 10-5, +4.06u (-135 Odds Or Better)
ATS: (9-5, +3.19u)
ML: (1-0, +0.87u) (-135 Odds Or Better)

O/U %
TOTALS: (4-0, +3.64u)

NET PPG Model
ATS: (9-5, +3.19u)
ALL: (16-12, +2.52u) (-135 Odds Or Better)
ML: (1-0, +0.87u) (-135 Odds Or Better)
TOTALS: (6-7, -1.54u)

O/U: Margin Of Expectation
TOTALS: (5-2, +2.55u)

---

MATH MAN’S PICKS:
Miami +3, u214.5
New Orleans -3.5,
San Antonio +4, o206

[aljack]

Math Man’s NBA Prediction Preview – Game 3 Edition II

Pace Predictor Model
ALL: (60%, 21-14, +4.98u)
ATS: (66.67%, 12-6, +4.92u)
ML: (1-0, +0.87u)
TOTALS: (8-8, -0.72u)

O/U %
TOTALS: (4-0, +3.64u)

Net Efficiency Model
ATS: (10-7, +2.10u)
ALL: (11-9, +0.97u)
ML: (1-1 -0.13u)

Net PPG Model
ATS: (10-7, +2.10u)
ALL (18-17, -0.66u)
ML (1-2, -1.13u)
TOTALS: (7-8, -1.63u)

O/U Margin Of Expectation
TOTALS: (5-3, +1.55u)

---

Math Man’s Picks:

Pacers -1
Raptors/Wizards u218
Celtics/Bucks o205

[aljack]

Math Man's better late than never....

---

PACE PREDICTION
ALL: (62.22%, 28-17, +8.20u) (-135 or better)

4.21.18
NWO (13.78),
MIN +6 (11.05)
NWO -7 (6.78)
MIN (5.05),
UTAH (5.03),
MIN/o216 (4.78)
UTH/o208.5 (2.2)
NWO/u217 (1.56)

---

OVER/UNDER MOE
Totals: (70.00%, 7-3, +3.37u)

4.21.18
HOU/MIN UNDER
UTH/OKC UNDER

---

NET EFF Model
ATS: (60.00%, 12-8, +2.92u)

4.21.18
NWO -7 (9.9)
MIN +6 (7.4)
UTH -4 (4)

---

NET PPG Model
ATS: (60%, 12-8, +2.92u)

4.21.18
NWO -7 (10)
MIN +6 (7.4)
UTH -5 (3.9)

---

NET EFF Model
ALL: (58.33%, 14-10, +2.59u)(-135 or better)

4.21.18
NWO (16.9)
UTH (9)
MIN (1.4)

---

Math Man's Picks:
Pelicans -7,
Twolves +6
Jazz -5

[aljack]

Math Man’s NBA Prediction Preview – Game 4 – Edition II


-


PACE PREDICTION Model
ALL: (64.71%, 33-18, +12.94u)(-135 or better)

GS/o203.5 (13.36)
IND/o205 (10.98)
MIL (10.88),
MIL -4.5 (6.38)
MIL/o204.5 (4.99)
WSH +2 (4.95)
GS (3.78),
IND +1 (3.56),
SA +7 (3.22)
WSH (2.95)
IND (2.56),
WSH/u218.5 (2)

---

NET EFF Model
ALL: (64.29%, 18-10, +7.42u) (-135 or better)

IND +1 (15.5)
IND (14.5)
GS (10.7)
MIL (7.6)
WSH +2 (6.6)
WSH (4.6)
GS -7 (3.6)
MIL -4.5 (3.1)

---

NET PPG Model
ATS: (65.22%, 15-8, +5.65u)

IND +1 (15.1)
WSH +2 (6.5)
GS -7 (3.4)
MIL -4.5 (3.1)

---

O/U % Model
TOTALS: (6-0, +5.46u)

BOS/MIL OVER
CLE/IND UNDER

---

NET PPG Model
ALL: (55.10%, 27-22, +3.61u) (-135 or better)

IND (14.1),
GS (10.4),
MIL/o204.5 (9.1)
GS/o203.5 (7.17)
MIL (7.6),
IND/u205 (5.05)
WSH/o218.5 (4.55)
WSH (4.5),

---

O/U Margin Of Expectation
TOTALS: (58.33%, 7-5, +1.37u)

GS/SA UNDER
TOR/WSH OVER
CLE/IND UNDER

---

Math Man's Best Bets:
($25) - MIL Bucks -4.5 (-110),
($25) - MIL/BOS o204.5 (-110),
($25) - Golden State -7 (-110),
($25) - Golden State OVER 203.5 (-110)
($25) - Indiana ML (-110)
($25) - Indiana/Cleveland UNDER 205.5 (-110)
($25) - Raptors -1.5 (-110)

[aljack]

NBA - PACE PREDICTION - ALL (-135 or better)

62.30%

38

23

12.59u

0.52% ROI

4.23.18

MIN +6 (11.05)

MIN (5.05),

UTH (5.03),

MIN/o217.5 (3.28)

UTH/o208 (2.7)

---

NBA - NET EFF - ALL (-135 or better)

58.82%

20

14

5.34u

4.23.18

UTH (12.5)

MIN +6 (8.6)

UTH -4.5 (8)

MIN (2.6)

---

NBA - NET PPG - ATS

59.26%

16

11

3.56u

4.23.18

MIN +6 (8.5)

UTH -4.5 (8.1)

---

NBA - OVER/UNDER MOE

60.00%

9

6

2.19u

4.23.18

MIN/HOU UNDER

---

NBA - NET PPG - ALL (-135 or better)

52.54%

31

28

1.35u

4.23.18

UTH (12.6),

MIN +6 (8.5)

UTH -4.5 (8.1)

MIN/u217.5 (6.95)

MIN (2.5),

OKC/o208 (2.45)

---

Math Man's Picks:
Minnesota +6 (-105),
Utah -4 (-110),
Utah/Oklahoma City o208 (-110)

[aljack]

NBA - PACE Predictor - ALL (-135 or better)

4.25.18

CLE (13.44),

TOR (13.05),

OKC (10.97),

HOU (10.95),

CLE/o205.5 (10.48)

OKC -3 (7.97)

CLE -6 (7.44)

TOR -7 (6.05)

HOU/o216 (4.78)

OKC/o207.5 (3.2)

MIN +12 (1.05)

---

NBA - O/U %

88.89%

8

1

6.28u

1.74% ROI

4.25.18

CLE/IND UNDER

---

NET EFF Rating - ALL (-135 or better)

57.50%

23

17

5.07u

0.32% ROI

4.25.18

CLE (9.4)

CLE -6 (3.4)

TOR (6.2)

UTH (4.9)

UTH +3 (7.9)

HOU (18.9)

HOU -12 (6.9)

---

NET PPG Rating - ATS

59.38%

19

13

4.29u

0.34% ROI

4.25.18

CLE -6 (3.3)

WSH +7 (1.1)

UTH +3 (8.1)

HOU -12 (7)

---

OVER/UNDER MOE

56.25%

9

7

1.19u

0.19% ROI

4.25.18

IND/CLE UNDER

TOR/WSH OVER

MIN/HOU UNDER

---

NET PPG - ML (-135 or better)

50.00%

4

4

.78u

0.24% ROI

4.25.18

CLE (9.3),

TOR (5.9),

UTH (5.1),

HOU (19),

---

NET PPG - ALL (-135 or better)

51.56%

33

31

.17u

0.01% ROI

4.25.18

CLE (9.3), CLE -6 (3.3)

CLE/o205.5 (1.27)

TOR (5.9), WSH +7 (1.1)

TOR/o216 (4.27)

UTH (5.1), UTH +3 (8.1)

HOU (19), HOU -12 (7)

HOU/u216 (3.1)

---

---

Math Man's Picks

Cleveland -6,
Raptors -7, Over216
Utah +3
Houston -12, Over216

[aljack]

NBA - PACE PREDICTION - ALL (-135 or better)

51.72%

45

42

9.96u

0.29% ROI

4.27.18

CLE/o201.5 (14.48)

UTH (5.03),

WSH +2 (4.95),

WSH (2.95)

IND (2.56)

UTH/o207.5 (3.2)

TOR/o215 (1.5)

OKC +6.5 (1.47)

IND -1.5 (1.06)

---

O/U %

4.27.18

CLE/IND UNDER

---

NET EFF - ALL (-135 or better)

54.55%

24

20

2.98u

0.17% ROI

4.27.18

UTH (15.9)

UTH -6.5 (9.3)

IND (6.5)

IND -1.5 (5)

---

NET PPG - ATS

55.56%

20

16

2.20u

0.15% ROI

4.27.18

UTH -6.5 (9.5)

---

Math Man's Picks:
Raptors -2 (-110),
TOR/WSH o215 (-110),
Pacers (-120),
IND/CLE u202,OKC/UTH o207.5
Jazz -6.5

[aljack]

PACE Predictor - ALL (-135 or better)

4.27.18

CLE (13.44),

CLE -5 (8.44)

CLE/o201 (14.98)

HOU (16),

HOU -11.5 (4.5)

HOU/o206 (9.73)

---

O/U %

4.29.18

CLE/IND UNDER

UTH/HOU UNDER

---

NET EFF - ALL (-135 or better)

4.29.18

IND (2.3)

IND +5 (7.3)

HOU (11.3)

---

NET PPG - FADE TOTALS

4.29.18

IND/CLE u200.5,

HOU/UTH o206

---

NET PPG - ATS

4.29.18

IND +5 (6.7)

---

OVER/UNDER MOE

4.29.18

CLE/IND UNDER

HOU/UTAH UNDER

---

Math Man's Picks:
Cavaliers -5, IND/CLE o201 (-105),
Rockets -11.5, UTH/HOU u206