NBA Finals picks and plays

Razz_Donkey · 06-09-09, 02:38 PM

I'm going to add another play here.

- Player prop: L. Odom over 21.5 points+rebounds (-115). Its a big number, but still a half point below his postseason average for the two stats combined. Due to Orlando's freakishly big lineup and their "no point guard all bigs" experiment I think Odom is going to continue to see a lot of minutes. He's playing well right now and his size is needed.

Razz_Donkey · 06-09-09, 03:29 PM

Most people here look like they are taking LA and the over. I think that playing at home for Orlando should allow for a more up tempo game, more shots in transition, and plenty of 3 pointers. Thus, the over looks like the right play to me.

However, I'm not to sure about taking LA at +4. If my feeling on the over is correct, then Orlando should be putting up around 100 points. When doing so the Magic have only lost one game this entire postseason. Therefore it would appear as though there is a chance for a correlated parlay. Right now I'm leaning over 198 with Orlando -3 (1pt buy)... Going to sit on this for an hour or two.

Razz_Donkey · 06-09-09, 07:41 PM

Alright, playing Orlando -3 and over 198 parlayed as mentioned above. Not a big play, too many mixed feelings on this game. There is a correlation between the pace and Orlando's success, so I still feel there is value here. GL guys.

HoulihansTX · 06-09-09, 07:43 PM

Razz I truly hope you and that freaky avatar cash tonite. so you can get that thing a hair cut.

texhooper · 06-09-09, 11:11 PM

god it must feel good to be you right now, razz. good call, man.

Razz_Donkey · 06-09-09, 11:14 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Razz I truly hope you and that freaky avatar cash tonite. so you can get that thing a hair cut.

Thanks bud! That was a decent cash. Fisher made it close, but thankfully he fell .5 point short. My prop on Odom was way off, he didn't play too long and had some foul trouble, but his biggest shortcoming was the lack of rebounding.

The parlay hit, but not by much. I was correct to buy the point but also correct about having mixed feelings there. Cut it close to nite, but a little luck put me in the plus. Hope everyone enjoyed the game, it sure was exciting!

Razz_Donkey · 06-09-09, 11:14 PM

Originally posted by texhooper

god it must feel good to be you right now, razz. good call, man.

Thanks buddy, it was a close call but I'll take it! Hell of a game!

texhooper · 06-10-09, 01:27 AM

i got snagged by the hook. -4.5...argh. i did take second half under which won by like a point or two, so that did even it out. still irritating though.

Razz_Donkey · 06-11-09, 06:08 PM

As for today's game 4, going to be rolling with the sharps for the side and the total (honestly I'm not as convinced with the total but will play it regardless). Good luck guys.

Also, I'm going to throw a bet on this prop:
- C. Lee OVER 6.5pts (-105): Lee is averaging over 8 pts per game in the playoffs. He was cold in game 1 of the finals and has since been mainly used for defense. Regardless, this line is too low. He's a good shooter and very athletic. Lee could exceed this number in one quarter if he got hot. Value in the over 6.5.

Stunnna · 06-11-09, 06:25 PM

1

Fisher is the shit

Stunnna · 06-11-09, 06:25 PM

1

Razz sucks

Razz_Donkey · 06-11-09, 06:29 PM

Originally posted by Stunnna

Razz sucks

Originally posted by Stunnna

Fisher is the shit

Quality posts. That prop bet was for game 3. And it cashed. Don't bother posting if you don't have any useful analysis.

Razz_Donkey · 06-11-09, 07:53 PM

Going to put a small play on LA for the first half at +1. In case you weren't sure, I'm on the opposite side for the game and hope to be able to get a favorable line at the half to put more on Howard and company.

Should be a good game.

Razz_Donkey · 06-12-09, 03:04 AM

What a game! A bit frustrating for me, but it sure was amazing to watch. Sharps had it right, under hit and Orlando was on its way, but couldn't close out the game. I think this was the right break down on the game, but sometimes things don't go your way in the closing minutes. Thats the way the cookie crumbles sometimes.

Disappointing with my other two bets. Lee fired up 4 wide open three's early on but only made one, then split free throws. In retrospect I think that prop bet was too risky. Lee is only going to be given adequate minutes and opportunities if he comes out on fire. Otherwise he will be sentenced to defense and riding the bench. The bet on LA + for the first half was just plain off. I will need to refresh my outlook on the games and clear my head because I clearly missed the rhythm that the game played out at. Hope you guys had better nights. On to the next game, and possibly the last of the season.

NBA Hero · 06-12-09, 02:32 PM

stan played lee for something like 7mins? stan is unreadable. but not in a good way. his players might be the one who is clueless.

good for us lakers backers for the series

Razz_Donkey · 06-12-09, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by NBA Hero

stan played lee for something like 7mins? stan is unreadable. but not in a good way. his players might be the one who is clueless.

good for us lakers backers for the series

Spot on bud. Lee didn't perform early and didn't get the playing time from his coach. It was not a smart play on my part. Congrats on having the Lakers for the series.