If Indiana wins by 4 and you have +3.5 you lose the bet. But if Indiana wins by 4 and you have +4 it's a push. And push meaning you get your $bread$ back.
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SportsTerminator
SBR Hall of Famer
02-18-09
5179
#8018
Originally posted by RoagBettor
LOL, it may go under, but my rule is NEVER play a Phoenix under. If you do and hit it you got lucky, that's all.
Looks like ragiche and I will be lucky tonight lol.
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Comment
Hybris
SBR MVP
07-22-09
1023
#8019
Originally posted by SportsTerminator
Looks like ragiche and I will be lucky tonight lol.
Comment
aznjeff07
SBR MVP
05-22-09
1295
#8020
You have a shot. I hit the phx under when it was 186 and 181 the other night
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Justin7
SBR Hall of Famer
07-31-06
8577
#8021
At the risk of jinxing myself, I'm on the other side.
Indiana -3.5 +100, 1 unit.
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Danskeren
SBR Sharp
05-27-09
498
#8022
Originally posted by SexyMit
It is already started and discussion is under way!
Found it . Great
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Pin Fish
SBR MVP
11-28-08
1295
#8023
I like Phoenix ML .......................
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ztballer
SBR MVP
08-24-09
1007
#8024
Originally posted by Justin7
At the risk of jinxing myself, I'm on the other side.
Indiana -3.5 +100, 1 unit.
Justin, what makes you jump on the other side?
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cocknocker
Restricted User
11-06-08
8001
#8025
Originally posted by chubber911
At $300/play, we would need a ROI of 8.3% to break even with the $25/game charge.
At $500/play, we need 5%, and at $1000 we need 2.5% to break even.
Before I spend money on picks, would you mind sharing what your long-term ROI is? Or maybe what stakes you believe one would need to play in order to overcome the $25 charge and still make some green?
The first order of business would be to advise a person against buying a pick everyday. Then I would advise a person to only buy a pick if it is to strengthen their own position on a game or to provide an insight on an area that they may have overlooked. Once construction is over then my tutorial on when to buy and when NOT to buy will be given.
As far as my record is concerned, check out the roasthawg vs ck playoff thread for my record iin the NFL playoffs last year ( I believe it was 11-4), all plays HEAVY and then know that I won all of my Super Bowl bets as well including a prop for Kurt Warners' pass completions which was easy money in the bank. In the NCAA Tournament 65% overall, 6-2 on my HEAVY plays. In NCAA Bowl Season I won all but 4 of my selections and I played ALL of the bowls. In NBA Playoffs had a wild run and a 70% overall clip but a sterling 75% on my HEAVY plays. MY PC Plays are 19-7 ats since I got to SBR, CBB Secret Plays 50-31-4, NCAA Football Secret Plays 39-9. And so on.
Personally I would suggest that a person playing the way I play should start with $300.00 bets considering the vig involved (-110 on average) and the amount for the prospective pick.
I will only be offering the plays that I would ordinarily play HEAVY, and NOTHING else. A PC will cost more than the usual though. There's too much homework involved in coming up with those to treat it as an ordinary thing... You can tweet it up on the name in my and Sexymits' signature
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Justin7
SBR Hall of Famer
07-31-06
8577
#8026
Originally posted by ztballer
Justin, what makes you jump on the other side?
Just my generic computer model (same model I use to set all my WNBA lines).
Comment
cocknocker
Restricted User
11-06-08
8001
#8027
Originally posted by Justin7
At the risk of jinxing myself, I'm on the other side.
Indiana -3.5 +100, 1 unit.
Yeah I liked Indiana too. That's why I FORCED myself to bet against them in this game and take the momentum/synergy of the Mercury. Sexymit can tell you that this is probably only the 2nd time in the entire year that ZI have gone against them as I cam thoroughly convinced that they will win the championship this year. I'm rolling with the books on this game
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Justin7
SBR Hall of Famer
07-31-06
8577
#8028
Originally posted by cocknocker
The first order of business would be to advise a person against buying a pick everyday. Then I would advise a person to only buy a pick if it is to strengthen their own position on a game or to provide an insight on an area that they may have overlooked. Once construction is over then my tutorial on when to buy and when NOT to buy will be given.
There's one good reason to buy points: your EV goes up. If you're paying 10 cents a half-point, that number needs to hit about 4.5%. Do they?
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Eccocide
SBR MVP
01-12-09
2126
#8029
Originally posted by Justin7
There's one good reason to buy points: your EV goes up. If you're paying 10 cents a half-point, that number needs to hit about 4.5%. Do they?
He's talking about buying his picks..not buying points lol...
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aznjeff07
SBR MVP
05-22-09
1295
#8030
f..line is moving in favor of phx now. Went from -110 to -115 for phx...wanted it to get to +4 but dosen't look like it's happening
Comment
cocknocker
Restricted User
11-06-08
8001
#8031
Originally posted by NorthernLights
Wow, been following Ck since the days when you were over at Covers. I never would have guessed in a million years you would be switching over to the tout service. Seemed like you were always against it and believed so strong heartly what you provided information wise was just as good and if not better than others paid services. THAT YOU WERE RIGHT ABOUT!!!!!!!!!!
I think that's what made you unique from the others, along with the teaching and information on how to cap and money manage. Your strong belief and crazy knowledge of all those sports is what commanded such tremedous following. Everyone has a right to make a living in what suites them best but just thought I would never see that day.
Don't worry, the commentary was always good too, and that's what will be going on. You know what kind of spread corresponds with what moneyline, and when is it good to buy a hook in football, etc. No scientific bullbleep. There's books and Justin for that. Just good old fashioned situational and statistical information and trends. If I am asked a question then I will respond to it the best way that I can. We will still release a pick apiece for NCAA and NFL here though available on Friday for NCAA and Saturday for NFL
Comment
joanapoker
Restricted User
12-09-08
2275
#8032
Originally posted by RoagBettor
Are CK and SM still going to post WNBA plays here for the Project, or will those now be paid picks at youcapper.com?
Why did you say that?
I've went to that site and saw that CK his selling some NCAAF picks. It's that really CK? I'm a little surprised.....
Comment
cocknocker
Restricted User
11-06-08
8001
#8033
Originally posted by Justin7
There's one good reason to buy points: your EV goes up. If you're paying 10 cents a half-point, that number needs to hit about 4.5%. Do they?
Oh I'm all for buying points in the correct situation. If you buy points on lines that are 3.5 to 7 and 10 to 13 it will always help your winning percentage. Trust me I'm well schooled in that area. But I wouldn't advise a person to do that AS they are purchasing. That is entirely up to the bettor. If they read some of the more topical discussions on the threads, then they would have that understanding. But the average guy doesn't want to read all of that shit. They just want winners.
That's exactly why I am going back to more discussion and less picks here. I think it's vital to create a nation of sharps that can handicap for themselves. What does a person really learn from a pick? Nothing? What do they get if they handicap games for themselves looking at the right things? Longevity and wisdom and income
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cocknocker
Restricted User
11-06-08
8001
#8034
Originally posted by joanapoker
Why did you say that?
I've went to that site and saw that CK his selling some NCAAF picks. It's that really CK? I'm a little surprised.....
Everyone calm down. It just is what it is. You guys already know what the answers are to the questions, and exclusively already know what leans I have on those games for the first week. So boys and girls lift up your cups and get your money on this weekend. I am still looking out for the Mafia.
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Jimbo42
SBR MVP
01-04-09
2076
#8035
Originally posted by NorthernLights
Wow, been following Ck since the days when you were over at Covers. I never would have guessed in a million years you would be switching over to the tout service. Seemed like you were always against it and believed so strong heartly what you provided information wise was just as good and if not better than others paid services. THAT YOU WERE RIGHT ABOUT!!!!!!!!!!
I think that's what made you unique from the others, along with the teaching and information on how to cap and money manage. Your strong belief and crazy knowledge of all those sports is what commanded such tremedous following. Everyone has a right to make a living in what suites them best but just thought I would never see that day.
CK was always against touts that lie and shade their record etc...Also, CK has always been against ppl that buy tout's picks and present them as their own...Those seem to be his two most consistent complaints about tout services...
CK will do it the right way... We all know that he will speak the truth of his record and will be upfront. I have no doubts that CK will run his business with the integrity and honesty that we have all seen him display. I say good luck my brother!
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SportsTerminator
SBR Hall of Famer
02-18-09
5179
#8036
8-5 in and were only at 7 minutes slow down... PLAY SOME DEFENSE.
Bet To Win
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SexyMit
SBR Hall of Famer
10-12-06
6139
#8037
I say I didn't realize the game started at 6 I thought it was 7, I was about to jump on the under 177. Oh well will look at the 2nd half and see if I see anything!
If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!
I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
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SportsTerminator
SBR Hall of Famer
02-18-09
5179
#8038
Originally posted by SexyMit
I say I didn't realize the game started at 6 I thought it was 7, I was about to jump on the under 177. Oh well will look at the 2nd half and see if I see anything!
It started at 7 Eastern time.
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showtime2000
SBR MVP
11-09-08
1054
#8039
Originally posted by Jimbo42
CK was always against touts that lie and shade their record etc...Also, CK has always been against ppl that buy tout's picks and present them as their own...Those seem to be his two most consistent complaints about tout services...
CK will do it the right way... We all know that he will speak the truth of his record and will be upfront. I have no doubts that CK will run his business with the integrity and honesty that we have all seen him display. I say good luck my brother!
Well spoken Jimbo!!!!!!!
CK, you have a following that has been very loyal to you and supportive to you. You have done alot to your followers and taught us well. Many have jumped in this thing foolishly not knowing what he or she needs to know about this crazy shit we do but, over time, the loyals ones were taught the fundamentals and more impotantly how to succeed in this. When you look around and see what other have to offer, not much.
CK has his good days, bad days, but awesome GREAT days in this business. In the long run, his selections are always wise and accurate. There are many that go after him, but time and time again always loose.
One thing for sure with CK, he's honest, classy and respectful, just don't cross the line with him.
I've said it before, and i'll say it again, CK is best in class!
CK, whatever you choose to do, the very best of luck to you and i'm know the mafia will continue to support you.
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SportsTerminator
SBR Hall of Famer
02-18-09
5179
#8040
28 points Phoenix and we're still in the 1st Q... ridiculous... never again
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cocknocker
Restricted User
11-06-08
8001
#8041
I'd like to wrap up Tammy Sutton Brown and take her back to a hotel room
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ztballer
SBR MVP
08-24-09
1007
#8042
Penny Taylor > Tammy Sutton Brown.
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cocknocker
Restricted User
11-06-08
8001
#8043
First half is a done deal! Gasoline on the backs as prescribed! My spin on the 2nd half is on Twitter at TheSharpGroup.
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dennisback
SBR Wise Guy
01-13-09
650
#8044
why would ppl play phoenix under although they play over over 66% the trend is your friend