nba over/under wins: lakers at 33.5?!?!?

[gojetsgomoxies]

apologize if this is stale line. i think it's from end of august.

shocked to see lakers at 33.5 wins...

they won 26 games last year........ russell - their best player by far?? - is gone... picked up lonzo ball who played 1 year at UCLA. perhaps ingram and randle improve alot. i figure that 1) lakers have huge target on back due to lavar; 2) WC teams play to the end as playoff race should be tight; 3) big name teams like lakers are habitually overbet by goofballs; 4) apparently millenials love lavar ball LOL

i feel really good about that UNDER......

other bets i like.. i am not emphatic about these like the lakers....

UNDER - detroit 39, philly 42.5, indiana 32, denver 46, LAC 44....

OVERS - NYK 30.5, phoenix 28.5..... miami 43.5..... atlanta 25.5.........

two OVER i'm toying with: chicago OVER 21.5 - not sure who plays for them now, NOP OVER 40...

thx for any feedback......... if i had to make a 2nd favorite play after LAL, it would be the NYK OVER or the denver/LAC UNDER's.

[gojetsgomoxies]

https://www.si.com/nba/2017/09/08/nb...-76ers-blazers
here are 2 of their better comments,
Oh, I’m still going under. Let’s be honest, how many young guys are they playing? When your three best players have combined for less than half a season of basketball, it doesn’t matter how good Joel Embiid is. I’m going to be selling on that hard. I’m not even that worried about Ben Simmons’s injury issues—let’s give him 82 games. .... also a paraphrase - minnesota didn't come close to getting it done with two super-elite young prospects with no injury issues......
but had you gone back 4-5 years and just bet the under on the Lakers every year, you could probably put a kid through college.

[gojetsgomoxies]

i forgot about brook lopez being on the LAL. he is a very good player.... not sure how the russell for lopez dynamic works for this year's win total.

[gojetsgomoxies]

any idea on what a subjective ROI would be on your best ideas?......... trying to figure out how confident you could be on one's best ideas.

[gojetsgomoxies]

https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/2017-18-nba-win-totals/

seems like different casinos have wildly different numbers of atlanta, brooklyn and chicago. i realize there is a moneyline aspect to each of those teams but i wouldn't think that accounts for huge difference in win projections.... there's a significant moneyline aspect to some of the other win totals where the differences aren't that large - like 2 wins difference.