Why the UNDER is such a value bet for Game 5
In my opinion we are likely to see the end of the NBA 2017 tonight, where GS wins 4-1 and wins the trophy - this is not the same scenario like last year where the Cavs surprised GS - and I believe the "sucker" bet for tonight would be to back the CAVS with the spread.
Nonetheless, I personally hate betting spreads and look at this:
Game 1 = 204 pts [UNDER]
Game 2 = 245 pts [OVER]
Game 3 = 231 pts [OVER]
Game 4 = 253 pts [OVER]
People by nature tend to bet on UNDER in Playoffs because they believe the teams will play defensively and will put their lives in front of the fence - but this has been proven wrong ... and it's not only the NBA, but rather also the PBA and many other European playoffs have proven that this concept is worthless.
And that being said, there are times when it's inevitable we hit some UNDERs, otherwise everybody would be rich.
After the OVER performance in Game 4, and after getting 3 games in a row where every UNDER bettor buried his head in the sand (I didn't) - now it's time to hit the UNDER and hit it hard.,
It's a much more valuable bet in terms of the odds being offered (GSW money line is low value, CAVS ML is good value but unlikely in my opinion).
My Plan:
I have £100 left in my account, I'm looking forward for the PBA game today with line of 205.5 - this is also a playoffs game in the PBA, I'm leaning the OVER but would probably take a bet in live. If that plan becomes successful I will bet what I get on the UNDER in Game 5 as a prematch bet - yes, one of those rare occasions where I would take a prematch bet instead of waiting for a live bet opportunity.
TLDR: Bet the Under on Game 5.
Nonetheless, I personally hate betting spreads and look at this:
Game 1 = 204 pts [UNDER]
Game 2 = 245 pts [OVER]
Game 3 = 231 pts [OVER]
Game 4 = 253 pts [OVER]
People by nature tend to bet on UNDER in Playoffs because they believe the teams will play defensively and will put their lives in front of the fence - but this has been proven wrong ... and it's not only the NBA, but rather also the PBA and many other European playoffs have proven that this concept is worthless.
And that being said, there are times when it's inevitable we hit some UNDERs, otherwise everybody would be rich.
After the OVER performance in Game 4, and after getting 3 games in a row where every UNDER bettor buried his head in the sand (I didn't) - now it's time to hit the UNDER and hit it hard.,
It's a much more valuable bet in terms of the odds being offered (GSW money line is low value, CAVS ML is good value but unlikely in my opinion).
My Plan:
I have £100 left in my account, I'm looking forward for the PBA game today with line of 205.5 - this is also a playoffs game in the PBA, I'm leaning the OVER but would probably take a bet in live. If that plan becomes successful I will bet what I get on the UNDER in Game 5 as a prematch bet - yes, one of those rare occasions where I would take a prematch bet instead of waiting for a live bet opportunity.
TLDR: Bet the Under on Game 5.