One playoff pick - 05/28

[Wilforth]

Cleveland -3 1Q (-115) 5u

The game spread is 7.5 points and you ask "why should the 1Q spread be as high as 3 points?". Something has been consistent of late in the games between these sides and may not change tonight:
The Cavs have won the 1Q against Magic in the L3 meetings in Cleveland and have done so impressively - by an average of 11 points.
One more thing to note is that the Cavs have generally played well in the 1H throughout this series and are likely to do so again tonight.

[sweetjones55]

The Cavs have won and covered every 1st quarter line @ home so far in the playoffs.

[Wilforth]

Sweetjones55,

I like that observation but the Hawks and Pistons aren't in the same class as the present-day Magic. So my play is based not on the Cavs' 1Q general playoff performance but their specific 1Q home record against the Magic. We're on the same page nevertheless.

[The_Kid]

1Q and 1H plays for Cleveland look pretty solid tonight. GL, Wilforth.

[SportsTerminator]

I'm with you on this Wilworth. I was thinking about Cavs 1Q all night after my Laker 1Q and 3Q loss yesterday lol, going big. But yes Cleveland has won all the 1Q against Orlando by 5 or more except game 3 where Orlando dominated the first Quarter. Cleveland is always known for getting a good jump start. Yesterday the Lakers 1Q line was at -2. I should have thought that the line started off too low. Usually when a team wins the first quarter by a lot the line starts off at -3. I don't know why I didn't think of that yesterday before I booked it. But Cleveland coming off of 2 tough losses one by 2 points in OT. I expect Cleveland to be furious and come out super hot especially them returning home. Let's cashed this!

[Wilforth]

Sorry for your yesterday's losses but I won't play the Lakers to cover the 1Q and 1H spreads in LA, especially against an athletic team. Anytime the Lakers have a game in LA, the betting public tend to go huge on 3 plays:
Lakers ATS in the 1Q, 1H and game. You can HARDLY cash 2 of those 3 with the Lakers. The Lakers aren't bettor-friendly when it comes to 1H plays. Three things have remained profitable about the Lakers all season when playing at home:

1) They fail to cover the 1H spread at least 75% of the time against teams with a road winning rate of over 45%.
2) The 1H goes Over at least 75% of the time when the 1H total is set at over 100 points.
3) They're more defensive in the 2H and tend to cover the 2H spread at least 75%, which is why they cover the 2H spread more often than they cover the game spread.

Those figures aren't exact but you don't have to be a rocket scientist to know that Lakers 2H ATS is often a better play than both Lakers 1H ATS and Lakers ATS for game.

[SportsTerminator]

Wilforth you know your stuff lol. I usually don't play quarters just on the game. But today I had to play on the Cavs 1Q I couldn't resist after the Lakers Quarters lost yesterday. I also wanted to play on Denver game 4 1Q and Orlando game 3 1Q but passed. But anywho Cleveland -3 1Q... CAHSED! Good Job!

[Wilforth]

Thanks, ST. We'll keep trying.

[t-bone]

Nice play Wil!