Jay Edgar NBA, Wednesday 11.29.06

**moses millsap** · 11-29-06, 01:26 AM

Houston looks the best out of the bunch on the surface. Charlotte and Toronto do not look good to me with their outright dog wins tonight, but will check back in when I'm able to go a little more in depth.

**Jay Edgar** · 11-29-06, 01:35 AM

Based on an educated guess as to which team will get less respect in the actual ML than in the Edgar ML . . .

5% STRIKE PRICES
NY would qualify at +272 or better
ATL would qualify at -174 or better
BOS would qualify at -186 or better
TOR would qualify at +178 or better
UTH would qualify at -132 or better
HOU would qualify at +136 or better
ORL would qualify at +134 or better
GS would qualify at -229 or better
MEM would qualify at +169 or better

**Jay Edgar** · 11-29-06, 01:38 AM

Originally posted by OWNED

Houston looks the best out of the bunch on the surface. Charlotte and Toronto do not look good to me with their outright dog wins tonight, but will check back in when I'm able to go a little more in depth.

May be a while before we see a Rockets/Suns line. T-Mac hurt a hip in the first half tonight (and Minny still only covered by just a smidgen.)

**Jay Edgar** · 11-29-06, 02:13 AM

Well. I'm a dummy. Line is up and it's PHX by 6.5.

Hmmm. Thoughts?

Paging Dr. Dark Horse . . .

Here's one observation, BTW. Yes the Rockets have won 4 straight, but the last three were at home against three opponents who had each played a game the previous night.

**bigboydan** · 11-29-06, 03:41 AM

Originally posted by Jay Edgar

May be a while before we see a Rockets/Suns line. T-Mac hurt a hip in the first half tonight (and Minny still only covered by just a smidgen.)

T-Mac is a big presents on that Rockets. If he can't go tomorrow it's gonna be a long boring game for sure.

**Jay Edgar** · 11-29-06, 09:59 AM

Here's the NBA Who's-Who of the Unloved.

So far this year, the 5% ML-OFF method has called for plays on these teams this many times:

POR 16
MEM 14
NYK 13
CHA 10
PHI 9
ATL 8
TOR 8
NOK 7
MIN 6
SEA 6
UTH 6
BOS 5
GS 5
ORL 4
DET 3
IND 3
LAX 3
MIL 3
NJ 3
SAC 3
CHI 2
DEN 2
HOU 2
DAL 1
LAC 1
WAS 1

And yes, the Trailblazers have played 16 games so far this season.

**Jay Edgar** · 11-29-06, 10:25 AM

Assuming a $100 ML bet and a $100 ATS bet (at -105) each time the team qualifies under the 5% ML-OFF method . . .

October 31 - November 27
MONEY LINE
5 MOST PROFITABLE TEAMS ON ML SO FAR
UTH 900
NOK 596
CHA 505
LAX 480
ORL 436

5 LEAST PROFITABLE TEAMS ON ML SO FAR
MIL -382
MEM -347
BOS -303
GS -218
PHI -206

ATS
5 MOST PROFITABLE TEAMS ATS SO FAR
UTH 395
ATL 390
TOR 390
MEM 375
GS 295

5 LEAST PROFITABLE TEAMS ATS SO FAR
POR -450
MIN -395
NY -340
MIL -315
CHA -230

COMBINED
5 MOST PROFITABLE TEAMS OVERALL SO FAR
UTH 1295
NOK 886
ATL 787
GS 697
ORL 631

5 LEAST PROFITABLE TEAMS OVERALL SO FAR
MIL -697
MIN -490
GS -428
CHI -410
NY -347

Note that MIL, the worst overall team, was only 4% ML-OFF as the line closed in LA last night -- so they did not qualify (even though we had 'em), and their win SU and ATS against the Lakers (picking up $380 total) is not included in the calculations.

**moses millsap** · 11-29-06, 10:31 PM

Nice going with the Knicks, I just played 2 ATS picks for tonight in the NBA, mostly college action for me.

**Jay Edgar** · 11-30-06, 12:16 AM

Wednesday night complete (I'm calling MEM a loss and getting some sleep.)

The kind of night that shows the value of taking the leap of faith and playing the ML.

(Why is it that 5-1 shots at the track seem like the easy and relatively conservative play, while playing a +500 NBA team on the ML feels like buying a lottery ticket -- even though my numbers said that the Knicks had a 30% chance to win the game?)

EDGAR LINE ML vs THE FINAL NUMBER (5% or more differential)

ML PLAYS (at 1* each)
Wednesday, 3-4, +2.64u
(NY, ATL, BOS, TOR, UTH, HOU, MEM)
YTD 61-90, +27.04u

SAME TEAMS ATS (at 1* each)
Wednesday, 3-4, -1.20u
YTD 84-67 (.556), +13.65u

**moses millsap** · 11-30-06, 12:36 AM

Originally posted by Jay Edgar

(Why is it that 5-1 shots at the track seem like the easy and relatively conservative play, while playing a +500 NBA team on the ML feels like buying a lottery ticket -- even though my numbers said that the Knicks had a 30% chance to win the game?)

I rarely shy away from a ML if I think it presents some value. On one right now actually, Pacers 2H +206, but as long as they can score 11 more points, it'll be cool.

**bigboydan** · 11-30-06, 01:09 AM

Originally posted by OWNED

I rarely shy away from a ML if I think it presents some value. On one right now actually, Pacers 2H +206, but as long as they can score 11 more points, it'll be cool.

Good thing for that 3 pointer basicly at the buzzer then uh bro

**moses millsap** · 11-30-06, 01:11 AM

Originally posted by bigboydan

Good thing for that 3 pointer basicly at the buzzer then uh bro

Would've been a push had he missed (GS was up 1 at HT), but obviously glad S-Jax sunk the wide open 3.