Hello fellow NBA fans from around the world! I hope you had a great weekend! Today we have 7 games, and I only see one value bet, and another one where I suggest following some guidelines in the text below. Here are the projections for the day:
Tip: Avoid betting this game.
Tip: Avoid betting this game.
Tip: No projections because of the unknown status of Lebron James.
Tip: Bet the Hawks, but it is important to read the guidelines below!
Tip: Avoid betting this game.
Tip: Avoid betting this game.
Tip: Bet the Kings.
“GOOD BET” (3 stars / 5):
I’m taking the Kings +5 (money line +180 or 2.80). Sacramento is 2-0 against Minnesota this year. Both games were pretty close: 109-105 in Minnesota (where 57 of the 109 points for Sacramento came from Cousins and Gay, which are both not playing for the Kings tonight) and 106-103 back in October in Sacramento. The Timberwolves are 8-18 on the road this year.
The Kings are 1-1 since trading Cousins. On February 23rd I recommended betting the Kings at home against the Nuggets because even after deducting 20% to their win probability they were still a value bet at +273. I felt like the market was overreacting to the Cousins trade. In their next game the line looked fine. They lost badly 99-85 at home to Charlotte and I believe the line is back to “overreaction” mode.
"PROCEED WITH CAUTION BET" (1 star / 5):
As of 2:30pm I’m going with the Hawks +3.5 or money line +147 (decimal odds = 2.47). My projections have the Hawks +126 versus Celtics -126 based on Avery Bradley being “doubtful” to play. I deducted 6.5% to Boston’s chances of winning based on this information. If he is out, I would deduct 8% (instead of 6.5%) which would make my projections become Hawks +119 Celtics -119. If he plays: Hawks +165 Celtics -165. Those numbers above account for Boston playing the second of back-to-back games.
In their only previous matchup this year Boston won 103-101 in Atlanta. The Celtics may be looking ahead to their clash with Cleveland in two days from now. After starting the season 9-2, Atlanta has gone 23-24 since then. Boston led by 17 in Toronto, only to lose by 10. In their next game, they blew a 15-point lead, but still managed to win it.
Good luck everyone!
Professor MJ
| Bookie | PROF. MJ | Bookie | PROF. MJ | |
| Raptors | -3.5 | -3.5 | -167 | -154 |
| Knicks | +3.5 | +3.5 | +151 | +154 |
| Bookie | PROF. MJ | Bookie | PROF. MJ | |
| Warriors | -13.5 | -13.3 | -1300 | -1120 |
| 76ers | +13.5 | +13.3 | +944 | +1120 |
| Bookie | PROF. MJ | Bookie | PROF. MJ | |
| Bucks | +7.5 | NA | +285 | NA |
| Cavs | -7.5 | NA | -325 | NA |
| Bookie | PROF. MJ | Bookie | PROF. MJ | |
| Hawks | +3.5 | +2.3 | +147 | +126 |
| Celtics | -3.5 | -2.3 | -163 | -126 |
| Bookie | PROF. MJ | Bookie | PROF. MJ | |
| Heat | -1 | -1.5 | -109 | -113 |
| Mavs | +1 | +1.5 | -101 | +113 |
| Bookie | PROF. MJ | Bookie | PROF. MJ | |
| Pacers | +10.5 | +9.7 | +500 | +486 |
| Rockets | -10.5 | -9.7 | -603 | -486 |
| Bookie | PROF. MJ | Bookie | PROF. MJ | |
| Twolves | -5 | -3.1 | -200 | -143 |
| Kings | +5 | +3.1 | +180 | +143 |
“GOOD BET” (3 stars / 5):
I’m taking the Kings +5 (money line +180 or 2.80). Sacramento is 2-0 against Minnesota this year. Both games were pretty close: 109-105 in Minnesota (where 57 of the 109 points for Sacramento came from Cousins and Gay, which are both not playing for the Kings tonight) and 106-103 back in October in Sacramento. The Timberwolves are 8-18 on the road this year.
The Kings are 1-1 since trading Cousins. On February 23rd I recommended betting the Kings at home against the Nuggets because even after deducting 20% to their win probability they were still a value bet at +273. I felt like the market was overreacting to the Cousins trade. In their next game the line looked fine. They lost badly 99-85 at home to Charlotte and I believe the line is back to “overreaction” mode.
"PROCEED WITH CAUTION BET" (1 star / 5):
As of 2:30pm I’m going with the Hawks +3.5 or money line +147 (decimal odds = 2.47). My projections have the Hawks +126 versus Celtics -126 based on Avery Bradley being “doubtful” to play. I deducted 6.5% to Boston’s chances of winning based on this information. If he is out, I would deduct 8% (instead of 6.5%) which would make my projections become Hawks +119 Celtics -119. If he plays: Hawks +165 Celtics -165. Those numbers above account for Boston playing the second of back-to-back games.
In their only previous matchup this year Boston won 103-101 in Atlanta. The Celtics may be looking ahead to their clash with Cleveland in two days from now. After starting the season 9-2, Atlanta has gone 23-24 since then. Boston led by 17 in Toronto, only to lose by 10. In their next game, they blew a 15-point lead, but still managed to win it.
Good luck everyone!
Professor MJ
