Prop Shop: Conference Finals

roadwarrior1 · 05-18-09, 09:54 PM

is that the international man of mystery you have for your avator? If so its more interesting than your thread.

The_Kid · 05-18-09, 10:20 PM

Killed myself on the last two plays for the conference semifinals. You're right, EP. I'll probably sit back and enjoy the first games of each of these series unless I find something I REALLY like. Good luck.

shhhhh22 · 05-18-09, 10:55 PM

Ya, that boston series and LA series were the pits. never got so many beats in a series before. damn. anyway I usually agree treading lightly game one. but I think 3PT props may be in order. Prelim thoughts are Over with LA/DEN, Under CLE/ORL

HoulihansTX · 05-18-09, 11:28 PM

Originally posted by shhhhh22

Ya, that boston series and LA series were the pits. never got so many beats in a series before. damn. anyway I usually agree treading lightly game one. but I think 3PT props may be in order. Prelim thoughts are Over with LA/DEN, Under CLE/ORL

I got those flipped actually. My thoughts are that the Nuggets run of shooting 50% FG in the playoffs is over, and Orlando is finally finding the bottom of the net with their 3pts. In their past meeting these teams have achieved a fairly high total. Plus in their prior meetings the totals were set signifiacntly higher(187, 191.5, 195.) Also their first halves have been high scoring also. GL

EaglesPhan36 · 05-19-09, 10:53 AM

The one I am looking at pretty hard is the UNDER for Denver's Team Total at 104.5. They didn't get that number once against LA in the regular season and I think Houlihans has it right, Denver played a pair of very porous defenses in Rounds 1 & 2. Lakers IF and of course a big IF ... IF they bring the defensive intensity from Jumpe Street, can keep Denver in-check I think.

The ones available for individual players ... Carmelo Anthony is listed at 23.5 Pts. He did not have a good regular season against LA, but has been balls out in the post-season. Chauncey Pts/Asts at 24.5 ... tend to think he might be the guy who has to score early in this series, then again ... they might really push for Melo to be a factor and just feed him the rock all day. Decisions, decisions.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-19-09, 04:13 PM

Game 1: Nuggets Team Total UNDER 104.5 (-115)
The player props are too iffy, so trying this one. Nuggets failed to get to this number against the Lakers in any of the regular season meetings. Closest was 102 in the last meeting in April. Lakers have also only allowed for one total higher than this number in the post-season. That was to Utah at 109 in Game 2. In fact, Games 1 & 2 when Utah scored 100 & 109 back-2-back were the highest totals scored against the Lakers. Yes, Houston did not have the offensive weaponry of Denver and hence, their low totals. Still, defensively I think the Lakers match up fairly well against Denver. Ariza has kept Carmelo in check and I think Kobe may play Billups some in this series. Throw in the six day lay-off for the Nuggets which could also have them a little rusty. One unit play here.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-19-09, 10:55 PM

Just by the hair on my chinny chinny chin.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-20-09, 02:10 PM

Game 1: Magic/Cavaliers Total 3 Pointers OVER 15.5 (-115)
Again, a small play here, but one that makes sense based on the regular season meetings. Orlando drained 34 threes against Cleveland in their three meetings and comes in off a 13 for 21 shooting performance from distance in Game 7 vs. Boston. Cleveland also had 3 point success vs. Orlando in those regular season meetings, hitting for 23 in the 3 games played. So your average is about 19 threes made per meeting. Orlando's defense against 3s in the playoffs looks better than it might actually be as they played a poor shooting Philly team in the 1st round and Ray Allen never got hot in the 2nd round, but got a lot of clean looks in that series. I'm looking for Lebron to be the facilitator for the Cavs as he'll either drive in the lane and get Howard in foul trouble or be forced to dish to open shoots like Mo Williams & Delonte West. Orlando obviously has a wealth of 3 point shooters, so any doubles on Howard should lead to open opps there. During the regular season, the Magic had a lot of success shooting the 3 in this series by hitting several early in possessions in transition. Look for them to try and repeat that. Orlando averaged almost 29 three point attempts per game when they faced Cleveland, if they keep that pace - this has a legit shot.

The_Kid · 05-20-09, 02:11 PM

Even if Orlando doesn't keep pace, they'll still be firing away from behind the arc.

Good luck with your play, EP. I'm going to sit this one out again.

rumple · 05-20-09, 10:18 PM

Easy as Pie

, good call.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-20-09, 10:19 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Just by the hair on my chinny chinny chin.

Delonte West!

EaglesPhan36 · 05-21-09, 02:58 PM

Not much looks good at my book at least for tonight. Only one I might consider is Made FTs for Kobe OVER 7.5. Everything else seems pretty spot on where the edges for either side can't be found. Might just wait till Friday for Cavs-Magic II.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-22-09, 02:47 PM

Game 2: Rashard Lewis Total Points OVER 18.5 (-105)
Lewis continues to be one of the Magic's most consistent performers. His name will be said a lot now because of the game winner in Game 1. He's gone past this number now in six straight post-season games. He had a huge 2nd half with 17 points after just 5 in the 1st half. I think one benefit for Lewis to continue scoring would be to drive the ball to the bucket. He got to the line with good frequency in the Boston series and would do well to continue that here. Lewis has now scored 19 or more in 3 of the 4 games between these two teams. His lone bad performance was a 3 for 15 shooting night when he scored 6 in the regular season. His shooting seems pretty solid right now, so I'll ride with the man who went to my high school to get this done.

The_Kid · 05-22-09, 04:03 PM

I can't really find anything I like and I don't want to force anything. Might look into it a bit more...

EP, that Lewis one should be money. No way Varejao can defend him.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-22-09, 06:14 PM

I'm usually able to find at least one per game that I think is better than 50-50. I actually took Gasol's prop last night although I did not post it here ... Over for Pts/Reb at 29 and it was +105. I thought it was going to be tough for awhile, but he really turned it on in the 3rd. Any prop with Gasol and rebounds in that series is a great over wager I think. Points are questionable because I don't know that he'll get more than 15-20 at best because of Kobe even though Gasol seemed to score almost every time he made an offensive move.

You've got the right attitude though. No need to take an action play if you don't believe it has a shot.

rumple · 05-22-09, 08:05 PM

This ones dead

EaglesPhan36 · 05-22-09, 08:12 PM

Not looking strong, but then again if you would have taken this in Game 1. Same thing then. Dude had 5 points at half time. Of course 5 points at half time might be a stretch.

He looked too hesitant in the 1st. Shoot the fuggin' 3 when you got it chief! Need a solid 6 point quarter at least to kinda creep into having a shot in hell.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-22-09, 08:56 PM

Nailed a couple threes, got to the FT line. Now we got a fightin' shot with 10 points at the half.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-22-09, 09:24 PM

En fuego Rashard. En fuego. 3 more to go.

Rashard Lewis once scored zero points in the 1st quarter just to see if he could get 9 in the next two.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-22-09, 10:02 PM

Originally posted by rumple

This ones dead

Dead sexy.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-23-09, 07:14 PM

Game 3: Chauncey Billups Total Assists OVER 7.5 (-105)
He barely got over this number in Game 1 and only had 4 assists in Game 2. However, I like this one with Denver back at home. In the post-season, Billups has 85 total assists in 12 games. 49 of those have come at home in 6 games, right around an average of 8. He hit 8 or more assists in 2 of the 3 home games Denver played in each round so far. so you figure if this one goes at least 6, this prop should probably hit 2 of 3 again. Key is which will Chauncey be ... scorer or facilitator or both? I tend to think facilitator to start this game as he'll try to get the transition game working and get the crowd into a massive frenzy early and put all the pressure on the Lakers. He's played an average of 42 minutes per game so far in this series, so he should have the opportunity.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-24-09, 05:10 PM

Game 4: Cavaliers/Magic Total 3 Pointers OVER 15.5 (+100)
This one comes down to what Cleveland does. In Games 1 & 2, Orlando has made 19 threes, 10 & 9. Cleveland made 8 in Game 1 and just 5 in Game 2. Dating back to the regular season, the Magic have made at least 9 against Cleveland in all 5 meetings this season and that 9 is the only time they did not hit double digit three pointers made. So you know what you're likely to get from Orlando, around 10 threes made ... maybe more if they're really rolling. So that leaves the Cavs to get 6-7 threes to put this over. Quite frankly they need the likes of Mo Williams, Delonte West, Lebron and where oh where are you Wally Szcerbiak (why aren't you playing?!) to knock down these open looks. Both regular season games in Orlando hit past this number and the Cavs shot the three pretty solidly in those games, making 9 in one game and 7 in the other.

rumple · 05-24-09, 08:48 PM

These guys can't shoot the wide open 3, soo frustrating.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-25-09, 08:02 PM

Game 4: Lamar Odom Total Points/Rebounds OVER 18.5
Just a hunch play here. Odom has averaged 8 rebounds per game in this series and should play at least 30 minutes if he stays out of foul trouble as the Nuggets keep using that smaller lineup with Kleiza at times. I think he's due for a double figure game in points, assuming he can knock down a jumper or two and continue to get to the FT line. Small play.

The_Kid · 05-26-09, 02:40 PM

Haven't had a lot of time to post plays but I'm going to play the props I like tonight.

Zydrunas Illgauskas OVER 20 Points + Rebounds

Lebron James needs SOME help. He needs to get it from Mo Williams, Delonte West, and Big Z. Illgauskas should bring Howard away from the hoop and help spread the floor with his ability to shoot the ball from 15+ feet out. He'll need to rebound on both ends to stop Howard from completely dominating the game on the boards offensively and defensively. He recorded 10 points and 10 rebounds in Game 1, 12 points and 15 rebounds in Game 2, but only 9 points and 9 rebounds in Game 3. He did foul out in Game 3 and he didn't shoot the ball particularly well so I think if he's able to knock down a couple more shots, then this prop should be fine.

Hedo Turkoglu OVER 16.5 Points

Turkoglu has yet to have a really good game in this series. He has struggled with his shot and he's been more of a distributor but I still believe he has the ability to break out at any moment. For the Cavs, guarding Turkoglu is a mismatch nightmare and I don't see any reason why Turkoglu can't get at least 17 points. He has been more of a distributor in this series thus far but if the Magic want to take complete control of this series, then Turkoglu must play well tonight.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-26-09, 06:06 PM

Man I was looking hard at those two also. No way I can back Hedo though until he proves he can score at home. I'd love to take that because it's plus odds at my book, but I'll let Hedo prove me wrong and score tonight.

Two I like tonight at plus odds:

Ilgauskas OVER 20 Points + Rebounds
As The Kid outlined, Z at least reached this total in two games and narrowly missed it in Game 3. You could make a case that he might have pushed it again if he wasn't putting up three three point shots. I know he can make that shot some, but if he gets in above five feet and takes those shots, I'm guessing he adds 2-4 points to his total.

C.Lee & M.Pietrus Total Points OVER 22 (+130)
Now this combo beat this number last game with 25 combined points, missed it by 1 in Game 2 and fell short at 17 in Game 1. Pietrus has been very consistent since the 2nd round. He's scored in double figures in 8 of the last 10 for Orlando. Lee has 24 points in this series with 20 of them coming in the last two games. Both guys are the beneficiary of the double teams Cleveland shows as the ball works around to the open shooters. Lee has taken 25 shots this series and will need to get up 8-10 to give his portion of this a shot. Lee is also benefiting from the shorter bench with Redick hardly getting minutes. Lee's minutes were up to a series high 37 in Game 3 and have steadily increased from 27 in Game 1. For the most part, it's a seven man rotation with spurts from Gortat and Battie as needed.Pietrus has been very aggressive offensively and slightly more than half of his 24 shots this series have come from beyond the arc. So long as both can avoid foul trouble when they are in & remain effective offensive weapons, this should be close for the push at the least and the plus odds make it very enticing.

Champwins · 05-26-09, 06:12 PM

What do you think about

Mo Williams (Cavs) Total Rebounds+Assists - Must Start over 8.5

Hedo Turkoglu (Magic) Total Points+Assists - Must Start over 21.5

EaglesPhan36 · 05-26-09, 07:13 PM

I'd take the Turkoglu one first.

The_Kid · 05-26-09, 07:18 PM

EP, I was looking hard at that Lee/Pietrus prop too and really wanted to play it but I decided to stick with Turkoglu and not overdo it. I'm getting + odds on both of my props so I'm loving that. Good luck tonight!

Originally posted by Champwins

Hedo Turkoglu (Magic) Total Points+Assists - Must Start over 21.5

Like EP said, I'd go with Turkoglu. IMO, he should get that one pretty easily.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-26-09, 10:45 PM

Sorrythat Turkoglu one fell short for you Kid barring a second OT. I thought he'd be right around 15-18 and he's got 15. Huge play there for Big Z to get us done. I pushed the Lee/Pietrus one, so I'm cool with not losing!

EaglesPhan36 · 05-27-09, 05:12 PM

Game 5: Lakers Total Points UNDER 107.5 (-115)
Lakers have yet to top this total in any of the games this series. They have been close around the 103-105 range, but still hanging below it. Outside of 110 & 119 loosey goosey efforts against Dallas in Games 6 & 7 where Denver got caught in a run & gun match, their D has not allowed anyone over his posted total. With this game being so pivotal to the series, expecting more of the defense we saw before that wacked out 4th Q in Game 4.

cuteboy86hi · 05-27-09, 06:11 PM

hey EP36 what about kobe -5.5 versus melo for 1.87?
Won;t kobe score big at home.He looked frustrated in that post game press conference and anthony was struggling.Advice please

The_Kid · 05-27-09, 07:53 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Sorrythat Turkoglu one fell short for you Kid barring a second OT. I thought he'd be right around 15-18 and he's got 15. Huge play there for Big Z to get us done. I pushed the Lee/Pietrus one, so I'm cool with not losing!

Yeah, I couldn't believe he was scoreless for the entire 4Q and OT. What can you do? At least Big Z got it done thanks to the extra five minutes!

Kobe Bryant -4.5 Points vs Carmelo Anthony

Melo is a little banged up and Kobe has been carrying the load. He'll need more help tonight but Kobe will still get his. Anthony didn't look too good last game and I'm playing this based on his injury. I just think the Lakers will win and Kobe will have a huge game, especially after Dahntay Jones pissed him off in the last game.

EaglesPhan36 · 05-27-09, 10:54 PM

Tough break on the Kobe prop. ****ing Lamar Odom shows up a game late for me! I'll take that Lakers under though. Thought it was F-ed about mid way through the 4th Q.