Sixers-Kings U205.5?

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  • kidthrillz
    SBR Sharp
    • 07-16-15
    • 383
    #1
    Sixers-Kings U205.5?
    I'm seeing all kinds of love for the OVER in this game and I can't figure it out.

    Philadelphia is 9th in the league in possessions per game at 101.7
    Sacramento is 24th in the league in possessions per game at 98.4

    This is a good measure of pace of play, and neither team really strikes me as a high pace team. In addition the coach of the Kings, Dave Joerger, has said multiple times that his team has a much slower pace of play than they used to. This would coincide with his time at Memphis as well.

    Another additional stat is Team extra scoring chances per game
    Philly is at (-3.7)
    Sacto is at (-.2)

    So this means neither team is very good at gaining extra possessions throughout the game.

    Oh yeah.. and both teams are coming off a Back-to-Back.

    I'm leaning heavily towards the under in this match-up. Does anyone have any thoughts that could go against this logic?
    Tags: None
    • gottimhimmel
      SBR Sharp
      • 10-08-13
      • 261
      #2
      My logic is not as solid as yours. That said, you asked if anyone had *any* thoughts against yours, and I have some.

      I am a recency bias bettor, meaning, I look for discrepancies between recent form and overall form.

      Recently (past 5 games), 76ers and Kings are both outperforming their usual numbers: inc. FG%.

      With two overperforming teams, I expect this game to go OVER.

      >Philadelphia is 9th in the league in possessions per game at 101.7
      >Sacramento is 24th in the league in possessions per game at 98.4

      These are OVERALL numbers, less indicative of recent performance than stats from the last 5 or so games.

      Gonna fade the OVER here and go UNDER.
        Comment
        • kidthrillz
          SBR Sharp
          • 07-16-15
          • 383
          #3
          Great data himmel. Really solid points you bring up as well. Looking into the past 3 games possessions per game:

          Philadelphia - 107.5
          Sacramento - 97.9

          So Philly is playing at almost 6 possessions per game better over the past 3, while Sacto is more or less negligible.
          I think TJ McConnell is making a big impact on the pace of play for the sixers.
            Comment
            • kidthrillz
              SBR Sharp
              • 07-16-15
              • 383
              #4
              So Embiid was announced OUT for the game, I'm not sure I will make a play on this game anymore. I will have to look into how pace of play is impacted when Embiid is out of the lineup. Total is up to 206 now....
                Comment
                • gottimhimmel
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 10-08-13
                  • 261
                  #5
                  Can confirm accidentally put in $10 on the UNDER.

                  Damn I hope I'm wrong on this one!!!!!

                  423368096-1 1/30/17 4:13pm $10.30 $10.00 Pending 1/30/17 6:00pm Reduced Basketball 545 Sacramento Kings/Philadelphia 76ers Under 205½ -103*
                    Comment
                    • kidthrillz
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 07-16-15
                      • 383
                      #6
                      Yeah himmel he's confirmed out.
                      AS hard as it may be, I actually wait until a few minutes before tip to place any wagers due to this sort of thing. I may miss out on some "sharp" lines or whatever, but I'd rather gather as much intel as I can up until gametime.

                      I will be rooting for your wager!! If you really want out, just put $10 on the over and cancel it out....
                        Comment
                        • gottimhimmel
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 10-08-13
                          • 261
                          #7
                          >Update

                          Cancelled out (almost) the UNDER 205.5 bet with a $21 bet on OVER 207


                          <body id="cke_pastebin" style="position: absolute; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden; left: -1000px;">
                          Risking: $21.60 To Win: $20.00
                          <small class="ng-binding" style="font-size: 11.9px;"></small>
                          • Sacramento Kings/Philadelphia 76ers Over 207 1.926 <small class="ng-binding" style="font-size: 11.9px;"></small><small ng-show="za.$b" class="ng-binding" style="font-size: 11.9px;">- Mon 1/30 6:00pm Basketball Reduced Reduced Juice - Internet Only</small>
                          </body>
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