new NBA system

[gojetsgomoxies]

was reading a nate silver article on power ratings and the NBA and he said that to fit power ratings to game results required alot quicker adjustment on recent game results than he expected.

so i thought i would track a system that picks games based on each team's last 5 game rating.

so for tonight, here are the picks and their inherent value.

portland 5.5 points........... road underdog (just so i can filter later)

philadelphia 4 points ...... home underdog.

boston 4 points.. home favorite

NON 5 points..... home favorite.

atlanta 8 points... road favorite..

i know i'm making picks on games that already started but i just want to track the system not tout a certain record...

fyi, here are the 5 best and worst for past 5 games vs. season.

best - alpha order as i forgot to put the exact rank beside them.

atlanta
memphis
philly
phoenix
washington..

worst...

brooklyn
cleveland
detroit
houston
LAL

some of the potential games countered each other - memphis/wash both hot. houston and milwaukee both cold.

[gojetsgomoxies]

eyeballing it, but looking like 2-3 ATS......... just to need to make sure portland didn't cover.

will post much earlier tomorrow.

trying this in ncaa too (major conferences only).... went 1-5 tonight.... yikes

[gojetsgomoxies]

i'm lazy so i'm eyeballing now.. but i'll make sure these picks are done before the game..... if i have to fill in some blanks, i'll make it quantifiably objective - like 5 points of value minimum.

so tonight we have phoenix (huge theoretical value... road U), denver (road u), minnesota (road u)..... think it's just coincidence it's all road u tonight....... dallas felt close but not playing it.

[gojetsgomoxies]

1-2 last night...... so 3-5 so far...

late posting today. so i'll do it on an objective quant basis.............. minimum 5 points of value.

non 14 points of value
houston 9.5 points
utah 5.5
phil 5.5
orlando 7
indiana 5

gotta double check orlando game............ they have same recent ranking so orlando should 3.5 fave. but i thought they are underdog. w