-
-
One and a half month into the season and we get a clearer picture of the lay of the land. Mostly same 'ole stuff. Pistons and Knicks finally over .500 but watch them struggle to stay relevant. Charlotte making a push in the East. Play-off seeding in the West will be competitive as ever, Dallas exempt.
I've a few remarks in observance of tonight's slate of teams.
Detroit: Pistons: least turn-overs commited in the league, right above Charlotte. #2 defense, right behind Utah. 11 straight games limiting opponents to less than 100 points at home. 8-3 ATS at home, 4-8 ATS on the road.
Charlotte: Hornets: defense lacking a bit recently but still very decent under Clifford's tenure.
Revenge spot for Charlotte tonight. They will meet again on Jan 5 and Feb 23.
Orlando eam improvements: offensive rebound, 3-point defense, overall defense. Got a little win streak going.
Denver: offense have improved at the sacrifice of defense as Will Barton replaces Gary Harris as starting guard. Harris may return next week. 11 games on the road and Denver have covered 8 of those. Still a great rebounding team; will keep them in most games.
Brooklyn: no improvements; metrics show a regression actually.
Miami: team is riddled with injury. Dragic playing gimpy, might have over exerted himself against New York. Haslem called out of the retirement home last night. Interior defense is still very good as long as Whiteside is there to anchor the position. But 3-point defense has been porous with the absence of Winslow. Derrick Williams is a terrible sub -- lazy player overall; limited talent ceiling.
Atlanta: I am pretty sure Dwight Howard is a curse to whatever team he goes to. Lots of regressive metrics: 3-point shooting is highly off the mark as well as rebounding. This team have no hustle. Middle of November the team was 11-2. Stay clear. 2-8 ATS last 10 games.
Portland: lots of offense, not enough defense; will loses lead in the 4th quarter -- can't close.
Milwaukee: problems closing games also. 4th quarter runs fall short. Much improved rebounding after a very slow start for Greg Monroe. One superstar point-guard away from being a perennial contender.
Lakers: Brandon Ingram improving (most likely because of the absence of DeAngelo Russel and Nick Young) but backcourt is getting thin. Probably played their best defense against the Bulls. Much improved offensive rebounding; Luke Walton keeps his guys amped and hustling. Best bench scoring in league.
Houston: Quietly making strides in the West. Bench have been tremendous, particularly Eric Gordon and Montrezl Harrell. Very good rebounding team: Donatas Motiejunas making a come-back.
Cleveland: Once a top-5 defense is just very mediocre now.
Knicks: Hot! Carmelo season high against the Heat. Derrick Rose left early, did not return -- remains questionable.
Kings: can't win games but they're trying. 7-3 ATS last 10.
Pacers. Not much hustle from this team. They have to score 110 points a night to win games.
Suns: haven't touched the Suns all season long.
Warriors: highly improved metrics, particularly rebounding on both ends.
Clippers: sloppy defense as of late.
Will most likely just have a small play on the Warriors tonight. Like Thursday's card better.Comment -
Wednesday, Dec 7 NBA:
REGULAR PLAY, 1 unitGolden State Warriors -4 -110
Going with the public. But the books have plenty of other games to cash in on.
Comment -
Plays posted on the spreadsheet for Thursday, Dec 8.
Nuggets
Warriors
SpursComment -
0-3 on Thursday.
Friday, December 9 NBA:
REGULAR PLAYS, 1 unit
Orlando Magic +7½ -117
Heat/Cavaliers Under 207½ -105
DOUBLE PLAY, 2 units
Houston Rockets -1 -117
FADE THE PUBLIC PLAY OF THE DAY
Boston Celtics Moneyline -125
Looking to play Knicks 2nd Half. Sandwhich game for Sacramento -- first game at home after a long road trip. Next game on the road again.Comment -
Could you run the NFL match ups for this week? I really need some winners for Beat the PrickComment -
NFL spreadsheet:
Will run ratings for offensive players later tonight.Comment -
By the way. Cleveland Brown plus the points looks good this week. Bad mojo for Dalton, good mojo for Robert Griffin.Comment -
Saturday, December 10 NBA:
Wizards coming off a win with bad mojo? Watch the Bucks thrash them tonight. This is a situation where my system works best.
Brutal schedule for Sacramento. Just got home from a long road trip. Now on the road again. In high elevation, of all places.
DOUBLE PLAY: MILWAUKEE +2½ -115 for 1st HALF $115 to win $100 DOUBLE PLAY: UTAH -3½ -110 for 1st HALF $110 to win $100
Double-up on Milwaukee 2nd Half if 1st Half bet loses.
Double-up on Utah 2nd half if 1st Half bet loses.
You get the idea.
Two chance to be right instead of one chance when betting the whole game. Two chances to be wrong but lets have the ledger speak for itself at the end of the season.
Comment -
Wow, those Kings faded away for real. Great capping.
Comment -
Monday, December 12 NBA:
I think the Pacers blew their wad to get a win last game. Hornets steaming.
REGULAR PLAY
Charlotte Hornets -½ -105 for 1st Half
1unit play. Price on the sheet.
Double-up on Hornets 2nd Half if 1st Half bet loses.
One more play coming.
Comment -
Monday's updated NBA card:
REGULAR PLAY: HORNETS -½ -105 for 1st HALF $75 to win $71.43 DOUBLE PLAY: NUGGETS -½ -105 for 1st HALF $75 to win $71.43 REGULAR PLAY: TRAILBLAZERS +5½ -110 for 1st HALF $55 to win $50
Not sure if all these are 1st Half winners but... there always a chance to make the money back on the 2nd Half line. We shall see.
Comment -
Should be REGULAR PLAY on Nuggets.Comment -
Books keep losing money on Toronto games. DeRozan and Lowry are balling this season. There is a team that knows how to close out a game and win decisively.
Tuesday, December 13 NBA:
REGULAR PLAY: WARRIORS -4 -110 for 1st QUARTER $55 to win $50 REGULAR PLAY: TIMBERWOVES +3½ -115 for 1st HALF $55.20 to win $48 DOUBLE PLAY: THUNDER +1½ -115 for 1st HALF $115 to win $100 REGULAR PLAY: THUNDER PK for 4th QUARTER $-110 $55 to win $50
Warriors haven't covered the 1st Quarter in a while now. Lets see if they come out firing against a soft defensive team.
The magic number for the Indiana Pacers is 110 -- they score that much, they win. The magic number for the Portland Trailblazers is somewhere in the 200 range. They score 120 points and still can't win a game. Same 'ole problem -- can't close out a game. I will take Thunder 1st Half for now and 4th Quarter, knowing what i know about the Trailblazers.
7 is always a key number. Timberwolves can't stop the Bulls but if they hit their shots they will stay within range. Remember, Minnesota is one of the worse 2nd Half scoring team in the league. Bet accordingly.
There may be some 2nd Half plays, there may not depending on how the teams perform. I expect a tale-of-two-halves and several lead changes in the OKC/POR game.
Comment -
checking inComment -
Hey HappyKane, just wanna say how much I appreciate your effort on putting all this data together, regardless of results I love to read your write-ups and all the analytical effort you put into them.
Usually I check the sheet 3 or 4 times a day, and even tho I don't tail all of the plays it helps me make a lot of good decisions, you definitely aggregate a lot to the forum!
Thanks a lot man, and keep up the good work
BOLComment -
At it again.
Thursday, December 15 NBA:
TNT PRIMETIME SPECIAL: BULLS PK -110 $175 to win $159.09 DOUBLE PLAY: PELICANS MONEYLINE -135 $135 to win $100 TNT PRIMETIME SPECIAL: WARRIORS -5 -115 for 1st QUARTER $115 to win $100 TNT PRIMETIME SPECIAL: WARRIORS -16½ -120 $150 to win $120
GL!
Comment -
Working on COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAMES sheet
Comment -
Another losing day on TNT Thursday. I was right to take the Warriors 1st Quarter and i should have just taken Warriors 1st Half and leave it at that. 70% of the public on Golden State you can just feel that imminent back-door cover. Anytime you see that huge percentage on one side on a beloved team -- buyer beware.
Friday, December 16 NBA:
Not sure what i want to do with the Bulls today. Public all over the Bulls again so i might just make a small play on the Bulls.
A few things to keep an eye on.
The King's December schedule is absolutely brutal -- only 5 games at home, 10 games on the road with a bunch of sandwich games. Their only reprieve was against a floundering Lakers squad. They will have sandwich games at home on the 20th against Portland and a rematch against Memphis on the 26th. Tonight's game is their 3rd game in four nights. They got blasted by a hot Houston team and now they face a Memphis team that is much harder to score against. Mike Conley makes an early return. Cousins set to return as well. The bench scoring will be the difference tonight. Zach Randolph is 6 points better (16.9 points/game in 42 games played against SAC) over his season average when playing against Sacramento. Willie Caullie-Stein cannot match Z-Bo's dominance over the Kings. I will bet on the Grizzlies with confidence tonight.
The books are tired of losing their behind off on these two teams: Toronto and Houston. Not that you can't trust Toronto tonight but you definitely can't put stock on the Atlanta Hawks. I trust the Pelicans. This huge line is designed to even things a bit. But, of course, the public is content to lay the 12 points tonight. I will take those points as i like what i am seeing from the Pelicans the past two games. Take away the decisive plays by Draymond Green and Kevin Durant, the Pelicans was primed to upset the Warriors 3 days ago.
Lakers/Philadelphia: if Joel Embid plays i think the 76ers is a good bet.
Four games with the key number 7 tonight. Clippers are 1-5 ATS as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. So there. Despite the losses, Miami is still playing hard. With the return of Justice Winslow their perimeter defense have improved drastically. He is a superior lateral defender over Derrick Williams. Tough test for them tonight but i will gamble with the points.
REGULAR PLAY: BULLS -5 -120 $60 to win $50 REGULAR PLAY: GRIZZLIES -6 -110 $55 to win $50 FADE THE PUBLIC PLAY OF THE DAY #1: PELICANS +12 -110 $110 to win $100 FADE THE PUBLIC PLAY OF THE DAY #2: HEAT +7½ -120 $120 to win $100
GL!
Comment -
Great bit of insight. Thanks.
Comment -
If you can make time, I would really appreciate NFL sheets for this brutal cold snowy weather games (or all games, for that matter). Thanks a lot!
.. and GO BULLS!Comment -
I will most likely just play the ESP and TNT prime-time games from now on until Feb 23 (after the All-Star Break)
I had the Spurs/Clippers game circled. That was before Blake Griffin had to have surgery. The Clippers clobbered the Spurs pretty good earlier in the season. Tony Parker wasn't healthy yet and Danny Green wasn't playing either. I guess if people pick the Spurs tonight they figure this to be the difference -- plus revenge. Blake Griffin lead everybody with 29 points in that first bout. That is an equation that should lead to a Spurs victory. Fundamentally that makes sense. Throw fundamentals out with the trash when it comes to NBA games. The weirdest things usually happen on TNT games.
According to my charts the Spurs had below average team mojo on Nov 5. They have that same bad team mojo again for this match-up.
Coach Rivers have opted to start Paul Pierce in place of Griffin. But Pierce is only good for about 15 minutes nowadays. Clippers will need production from someone else. If Speights can hit most of his threes, the Clippers will be fine. I just can't see anyone putting up 29 points again on the Spurs.
Tony Parker isn't going to light up the highlight reels at this day and age. But Patty Mills have been an excellent option for the team. There are many pieces on the team that just clicks -- they don't miss Tim Duncan at all.
The public backing the Spurs at about a 75% clip tonight.
Sticking with my guns and playing:
Los Angeles Clippers Moneyline +103
Comment -
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>DECEMBER GAME OF THE MONTH #3: December 29. Celtics over Cavaliers. $400 play.
Stay tuned.Comment -
Great call last night.
Comment -
Thanks for the LAC call. If you get a chance, I'd love to see the mojo on the Christmas Day NFL games.
Happy Holidays, HappyKane!Comment -
CHRISTMAS DAY NBA!
REGULAR PLAY: CAVALIERS +3 -105 $75 to win $71.43 REGULAR PLAY: TIMBERWOLVES +2½ -110 for 1st HALF $55 to win $50 FADE THE PUBLIC PLAY OF THE DAY: TIMBERWOLVES +4½ -110 $110 to win $100 DOUBLE PLAY: CLIPPERS -3½ -110 for 1st HALF $110 to win $100 REGULAR PLAY: CLIPPERS -6½ -107 $75 to win $70.09
Will play Boston 2nd Half if they trail or tie at the break.
Will also play a 6½ teaser with Timberwolves + Clippers.
GL!
Comment -
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>11:59 PM ET Amanda Nunes +120 C DEC 30 Ronda Rousey -140 A+ Play: Rousey -140 Comment -
Taking a shot with some small plays until the "big one" on TNT Thursday.
Plays:
REGULAR PLAY: THUNDER -1½ -115 for 1st QUARTER $75 to win $65.22 REGULAR PLAY: ROCKETS -3 -105 for 1st HALF $50 to win $47.62 REGULAR PLAY: JAZZ -2½ -110 for 1st HALF $65 to win $59.09
Will play Rockets and Jazz 2nd Half if those teams trail or tie at the break.
Comment -
Halftime
UTAH JAZZ 48
LA LAKERS 52
Play:
Utah Jazz -6 -110 for 2nd Half
Comment -
Jazz playing like shitComment -
One Gobert free-throw away from a nice day yesterday. Under bettors sweating in that Utah/Lakers game. That is why i rarely play totals. The mathematic of averages is spot on for totals sometimes.
Wednesday, December 28 NBA:
REGULAR PLAY: KNICKS +2 -110 for 1st HALF $50 to win $45.45 REGULAR PLAY: BUCKS +1½ -105 for 1st HALF $75 to win $71.43
Will play Bucks 2nd Half if Milwaukee trail or tie at the break. Not sure what i will do with the Knicks for the full game. Public favor the Knicks tonight. Hawks do have horrible team mojo in this match-up. Maybe the game will go Under 212.
Comment -
Thursday, December 29, 2016 NBA:
TNT PRIME-TIME SPECIAL: CELTICS +6 -110 $330 to win $300
One last big one to end the year. A straight-up Boston win would be nice.
Comment
