nba totals frequency

[LineHunter]

I read that the probabilty of the total falling on any number near the spread (within 3 of the spread mid-point) is 3.4%

can anyone confirm this or give me a reference to other analysis of this?

[Ganchrow]

I read that the probabilty of the total falling on any number near the spread (within 3 of the spread mid-point) is 3.4%

can anyone confirm this or give me a reference to other analysis of this?

I'm not sure I understand your question here.

"The probability of the total falling ... within 3 of the spread mid-point .... "

In the NBA, the spread and total have entirely different orders of magnitude. Perhaps you could give a specific example to better illustrate your question?

[TLD]

I interpreted the question to mean, “If an NBA total is about 175 (various books have it from 174-176, but the consensus or midpoint of the range is about 175) is it true that there is about a 3.4% chance it’ll land 172, a 3.4% chance it’ll land 173, and so on for all numbers within 3 of 175?”

[RickySteve]

3.4% is way too high.

[David]

A half point is worth about 5 cents according to the drop downs at Pinnacle.

[Ganchrow]

I'll post NBA side and total frequencies in the Basketball forum this weekend.

[Jay Edgar]

I was hoping that this thread might lead us there.

[Hoja Verdes]

Are you trying to bet both sides with a 3 point middle?