Jay Edgar NBA, Friday 11.17.06

**Jay Edgar** · 11-17-06, 12:23 PM

As of noon eastern every favorite on the board is priced too high by 5% or more, according to my numbers.

It's hard not to wonder about some systemic flaw in my system when you see something as categorical as that.

But, as explained in the post summarizing the first block of the season, so far believing in the Edgar numbers has been profitable.

Right now the gaps are:

22% NY
21% MEM
15% POR, TOR
13% PHI
11% CHI
8% NJ, UTH
5% MIN, WAS

**moses millsap** · 11-17-06, 12:27 PM

I'm not sure what to make of any of these lines today. I think it sets up nicely for SA to have a blowout win myself with them coming off the SU loss to the Bobcats in their last game and with the Bulls playing that crazy one last night, but the line is above all the key numbers, so it's less tempting.

**Jay Edgar** · 11-17-06, 12:46 PM

Originally posted by OWNED

I'm not sure what to make of any of these lines today. I think it sets up nicely for SA to have a blowout win myself with them coming off the SU loss to the Bobcats in their last game and with the Bulls playing that crazy one last night, but the line is above all the key numbers, so it's less tempting.

I'm scared of the Spurs, too. I actually took a lead on them at -7 yesterday, intending to sell it all back and maybe more -- but given SA's loss and how much energy CHI expended last night I'm not wild about the Bulls even with the big numbers.

I would truly love Memphis at +5 if they weren't in the same kind of "home at last" situation that bit the Sonics on Wednesday. The Grizz are losing to quality opponents and playing them tough -- and that usually bodes well for a breakout stretch of games

**Peyton2MarvinN06** · 11-17-06, 01:50 PM

Fade the Pacers tonight against the Nets! The Pacers have no team chemistry right now and Jermaine O'Neal got into a shouting match with Coach Carlisle after the game the other night... I THINK THE NETS WILL WIN THIS GAME OUTRIGHT, BUT I WILL TAKE THE 4 JUST TO BE SAFE...

PLAY: NETS +4 OR NETS ML

**Jay Edgar** · 11-17-06, 05:47 PM

current ML-OFF Numbers
8% NJ +183
22% NY +360
14% POR +270
4% MIN +235
4% WAS +170
23% MEM +195
10% CHI +335
8% UTH +154
12% PHI +260
14% TOR +295

**Jay Edgar** · 11-17-06, 06:00 PM

PLAYS

1*
NJ +5 -101
NY +9 -107
POR +7 -105
MEM +5 +101

0.5*
NJ +183
NY +360
POR +270
MEM +195
UTH +154
PHI +260
TOR +295

**moses millsap** · 11-17-06, 07:31 PM

GL Jay, I'll have to play the late games if I play the NBA today, just got up from a nap about 15 minutes ago