Jay Edgar NBA, Sunday 11.12.06

[Jay Edgar]

RESULTS
Saturday, 5-9, -.81u
YTD, 50-52, +4.86u

RANKINGS by POWER RATING OVER LAST 10 GAMES
1 SAN, 2 UTH, 3 LAC, 4 CHI, 5 HOU
6 GS, 7 SAC, 8 WAS, 9 NJ, 10 DET

11 CLE, 12 ATL, 13 SEA, 14 PHX, 15 MIL
16 MIA, 17 NOK, 18 IND, 19 MEM, 20 DAL

21 ORL, 22 POR, 23 DET, 24 LAX, 25 TOR
26 PHI, 27 NY, 28 MIN, 29 BOS, 30 CHA

EDGAR LINES for 11.12.06
(FAVORITE-POINTS-MONEYLINE-DOG)
LAC 5.5/191 over NOK
WAS 4.6/169 over NJ
CHA 3.6/147 over DEN
MIA 2.7/129 over HOU
SAC 5.8/205 over TOR
POR 2.9/136 over DAL
LAX 3.7/151 over MEM

Largest discrepancies point to:
POR, MEM, CHA

Closer to the borderline:
NOK, HOU, TOR

The gap on POR is over 20%, which puts it in the "too good" category by my arbitrary standard -- although the "too good" ML plays so far this year are 2-1 for +4.8 units.

[Lucas]

Why do you have "too good" category? Is it based on some statistics or is it just your strange feeling about it?

[Jay Edgar]

Why do you have "too good" category? Is it based on some statistics or is it just your strange feeling about it?

My formula gives DAL a 42% chance to win, while the current ML has them at 69%. In the testing I did last year the most profitable plays were where my line was off by 5%-20%. Over 20% it was about break even. (But I tested for January and half of February, not Nov when the lines are looser, so who knows.) For tomorrow I've already played POR.

[Jay Edgar]

Sunday numbers complete.



Celts holding on would have made it an OK night on the posted plays.

Fewer plays for more units starting any day now. One more losing day will surely tirigger it.

[Jay Edgar]

Really pressed for time today, so staying with .25u for now.

NJ E +210
CHA E +160
POR E +215
POR +6 -105
MEM E +405
MEM +9 -105

Took some NOK and HOU before the big moves -- won't post them as those prices not available now.

[scottyy11]

GL gonna go with NJ,TOR,CHAR

[moses millsap]

I'm liking several of those on the ML myself, but will check back in with the final verdict later.

[Checkerboard]

Way to go in the Sunday NFL thread . . . Jay Edgar 5-0!

[Jay Edgar]

Way to go in the Sunday NFL thread . . . Jay Edgar 5-0!

Thanks for noticing, Checker. All tolled 9-2 in the NFL today but spent the entire afternoon on trains and planes and saw not one second of any of it!!

Cause and effect?