A Saturday-night situation will be there in the extreme: 5 of the 8 games on the card feature a road team in a back-to-back against a more rested home team.
Among the NBA projects on the to-do list is trying to quantify more precisely the effect of back-to-back play on winning percentage. The subcategories are daunting -- at home or on the road, off a win or off a loss, facing a rested opponent or a BxB opponent? My method would be to look at it in the SU context rather than the ATS context, because I am looking for the right adjustment to make to my estimation of each team's chances of winning the game SU. (The estimated pointspread is formula-derived from the estimated winning percentage.)
(A note on the team power ratings that underlie the rankings, One of the off-season adjustments to the formula was to decrease the significance of the most recent game in the team's power rating -- based on my thought that the next game is often an opposite reaction to the most recent game. So, rather than being the largest component in the team's power rating, the most recent game is now equal to the average of the last 5 games in importance. The second-to-last game is the most important single game in the power rating formula by a small margin.)
RESULTS
Friday, 7-6 +0.60u
YTD, 45-43, +5.67u
RANKINGS (by "last 10 games" power rating)
1 SAN, 2 DET, 3 UTH, 4 LAC, 5 HOU
6 CHI, 7 SAC, 8 WAS, 9 CLE, 10 NJ
11 ATL, 12 PHX, 13 MIL, 14 SEA, 15 MIA
16 MEM, 17 NOK, 18 IND, 19 GS, 20 DAL
21 MIN, 22 POR, 23 DEN, 24 LAX, 25 ORL
26 TOR, 27 PHI, 28 BOS, 29 NY, 30 CHA
EDGAR LINES for 11.11.06
(FAVORITE-POINTS-MONEYLINE-DOG)
SEA 3.8/156 over ATL
CLE 6.2/229 over BOS
SAN 7.7/317 over NY
MIN 3.8/156 over ORL
MIL 3.1/139 over UTH
CHI 5.7/198 over IND
PHX 3.9/157 over MEM
GS 1.8/118 over DET
MONEYLINE SYSTEM STRIKE PRICES
(equals approximately a 4.5% difference from Edgar ML)
ATL @ -127, SEA @ +193
CLE @ -182, BOS @ +294
SAN @ -245, NY @ +426
MIN @ -127, ORL @ +193
MIL @ -113, UTH @ +171
CHI @ -159, IND @ +250
PHX @ -128, MEM @ +195
GS @ +104, DET @ +144
I'm traveling all weekend but cautiously optimistic about my ability to post from the Unknown Quantity Motor Lodge.
Among the NBA projects on the to-do list is trying to quantify more precisely the effect of back-to-back play on winning percentage. The subcategories are daunting -- at home or on the road, off a win or off a loss, facing a rested opponent or a BxB opponent? My method would be to look at it in the SU context rather than the ATS context, because I am looking for the right adjustment to make to my estimation of each team's chances of winning the game SU. (The estimated pointspread is formula-derived from the estimated winning percentage.)
(A note on the team power ratings that underlie the rankings, One of the off-season adjustments to the formula was to decrease the significance of the most recent game in the team's power rating -- based on my thought that the next game is often an opposite reaction to the most recent game. So, rather than being the largest component in the team's power rating, the most recent game is now equal to the average of the last 5 games in importance. The second-to-last game is the most important single game in the power rating formula by a small margin.)
RESULTS
Friday, 7-6 +0.60u
YTD, 45-43, +5.67u
RANKINGS (by "last 10 games" power rating)
1 SAN, 2 DET, 3 UTH, 4 LAC, 5 HOU
6 CHI, 7 SAC, 8 WAS, 9 CLE, 10 NJ
11 ATL, 12 PHX, 13 MIL, 14 SEA, 15 MIA
16 MEM, 17 NOK, 18 IND, 19 GS, 20 DAL
21 MIN, 22 POR, 23 DEN, 24 LAX, 25 ORL
26 TOR, 27 PHI, 28 BOS, 29 NY, 30 CHA
EDGAR LINES for 11.11.06
(FAVORITE-POINTS-MONEYLINE-DOG)
SEA 3.8/156 over ATL
CLE 6.2/229 over BOS
SAN 7.7/317 over NY
MIN 3.8/156 over ORL
MIL 3.1/139 over UTH
CHI 5.7/198 over IND
PHX 3.9/157 over MEM
GS 1.8/118 over DET
MONEYLINE SYSTEM STRIKE PRICES
(equals approximately a 4.5% difference from Edgar ML)
ATL @ -127, SEA @ +193
CLE @ -182, BOS @ +294
SAN @ -245, NY @ +426
MIN @ -127, ORL @ +193
MIL @ -113, UTH @ +171
CHI @ -159, IND @ +250
PHX @ -128, MEM @ +195
GS @ +104, DET @ +144
I'm traveling all weekend but cautiously optimistic about my ability to post from the Unknown Quantity Motor Lodge.
