Futures bet on Miami - Do I hedge?

Slanina · 05-14-16, 10:36 PM

Initial bet amount?

trevor123698 · 05-15-16, 12:57 AM

you're farking stupid dude.

TTA_President · 05-15-16, 10:26 AM

This would be the best post ever of it hits

Mac4Lyfe · 05-15-16, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by Slanina

Initial bet amount?

I think ~$300. I also had $100 on Boston and Philly so I was in about $500 total.

louielouie · 05-15-16, 10:35 AM

How much did you bet - I'd hedge on raptor ml to cover your bet

drfunkmaster · 05-15-16, 10:38 AM

dont hedge miami wins... raptors are just garbage

Mac4Lyfe · 05-15-16, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by louielouie

How much did you bet - I'd hedge on raptor ml to cover your bet

That's what I'm thinking. Maybe hedge enough to win something. But damn Toronto is -185 and if the Heat win the series price for Cleveland and then either OKC/GS are going to be astronomical. If I bet $1,800 here to win $1,000, now I'm out of more money that may be harder to recover if they advance?

Mac4Lyfe · 05-15-16, 10:51 AM

Originally posted by drfunkmaster

dont hedge miami wins... raptors are just garbage

I really don't want to hedge with this much juice but home teams win game 7 three times as much. I'm also not sure if I can turn a profit with the next 2 series because Miami will be a huge dog which is going to be a high premium for opposing series prices? I'm trying to guess what a series future against Cleveland then OKC/GS would be?

Ralphie1412 · 05-15-16, 10:54 AM

I think without Whiteside the Heat are done.

Mac4Lyfe · 05-15-16, 11:08 AM

Originally posted by Ralphie1412

I think without Whiteside the Heat are done.

I just posted in the poll thread. I think Miami's success depends on Deng and Johnson waking up. They aren't giving Miami anything offensively. If they can step up and take some pressure off of Wade, Miami has a chance. I also have to think that the refs are going to be all over Miami, trying to build a Cav/Heat ECFs which would be epic. I also think it's hard to win a game 7 at home when all the pressure is on you (Derozan and Lowry). I can see both of those guys choking in grand fashion today. You have to trust Wade showing up and possibly taking over this game over any other player.

I'm trying to hedge but I can't figure out what a series match of Miami/Cleveland then Miami/GS-OKC would be??? Help?

gambler705 · 05-15-16, 11:21 AM

there is ZERO hedge opportunity here.... win or lose today, the Heat have ZERO chance of winning the title.

Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

I have a futures bet on Miami to win the NBA title that will pay about $13K. They have game 7 tomorrow then 2 more series if successful. I know there's still a long way to go with 2 more series but when I placed the bet at the beginning of the year, I was hoping to be able to hedge if they made it to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Do I make a large ML play on Toronto? If they win, do I then make a series bet on Cleveland? Maybe an open ended parlay? Not sure what the hell to do but hate to not win something??

Mac4Lyfe · 05-15-16, 11:51 AM

Originally posted by gambler705

there is ZERO hedge opportunity here.... win or lose today, the Heat have ZERO chance of winning the title.

Yeah, I don't see them winning a title either BUT if they make it to the ECF, I should surely at least be able to turn a profit? I've done it many times over the years w/football picking a huge futures dog and hoping they make the playoffs because then you can start hedging. I haven't been able to quite figure it out with the NBA because the damn series prices are so unpredictable? and the juice is crazy in spots. I'm thinking about just putting a Toronto ML bet to cover my original bet but even that feels wrong?

Hu$tle · 05-15-16, 11:53 AM

Tough spot no way they beat cle

1. Hold off till next round. Hedge sprinkling a series bet cle sweep, 4-1, 4-2

2. Small hedge for ur initial money back sprinkle raptors win 1-3, 3-6 and maybe spread

Mac4Lyfe · 05-15-16, 11:59 AM

Originally posted by Hu$tle

Tough spot no way they beat cle

1. Hold off till next round. Hedge sprinkling a series bet cle sweep, 4-1, 4-2

2. Small hedge for ur initial money back sprinkle raptors win 1-3, 3-6 and maybe spread

I really think Miami matches up very well with Cleveland. They are definitely a much better opponent than Toronto as long as Whiteside is healthy. Miami believes they can beat Cleveland which they have done the last 6 or 7 years even when Lebron was there the first time. Miami knows how to play Lebron to not allow him to make the extra passes. They let him get his points while limiting everyone else. As a Cleveland fan I want Miami to lose today but my ticket has Miami, so my heart lies with my money.

Fukkin Toronto ML going up by the minute (now -195). Dammit.