NBA - Monday, 2/29/16

[LT Profits]

1 NBA Play Monday

Nuggets +2.5 -105 (Heritage)


YTD: 184-160-5, +19.37

[lakerboy]

Why not ml?

[LT Profits]

Why not ml?

For a +2.5 at -105, I'd want at least +130 ML and I couldn't find one.

[lakerboy]

Fair enough. Gl today.

You don't like indiana?

[lilpete]

this is how you win at sports betting, pick and choose spots dont bet every game on the board

[LT Profits]

Fair enough. Gl today.

You don't like indiana?

My model loves Indy, it has Cleveland -6.04. I am waiting to see what the line does, variance is a bit TOO much from model right now.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Wouldn't the variance make a play on Indy more enticing and have more value LT? Books probably just overcompensating line a bit with Indy playing yesterday. Cavs did as well but with no LBJ they know bettors will forgive Cavs and expect bounce back tonight. Paul George been struggling past 2 games as well so might look for a over prop on him. Bol like Nugs myself

[jjgold]

Denver Strong

[posey_mvp]

I'm actually taking Memphis because Gallo is out..

[RavensFan2k3]

For a +2.5 at -105, I'd want at least +130 ML and I couldn't find one.

But do you think they win SU?

[TxAaron]

Den best scorer out. Have to fade here.

[juicername]

Do your model take player injuries into account LT?

[squarenfl]

Gallinari is out and line moves the opposite direction from denver +2.5 to denver +1.5?
whats up with that?

[LT Profits]

Do your model take player injuries into account LT?

Yes and I already have Gallinari out of the lineup

[LT Profits]

Wouldn't the variance make a play on Indy more enticing and have more value LT?

Theoretically yes but I hate large variance because always make me think I am missing something. I would actually prefer line movement toward my number while still leaving room to be +EV.

[LT Profits]

Gallinari is out and line moves the opposite direction from denver +2.5 to denver +1.5?
whats up with that?

The injury is irrelevant to line move because books already knew he was out when setting the original 2.5.

[LT Profits]

But do you think they win SU?

Well, I have them winning SU 45% of the time. I think the +2.5 was the better play.

[LT Profits]

1 NBA Addition

2 NBA Plays Monday

Nuggets +2.5 -105 (Heritage)
Grizzlies / Nuggets UNDER 206 -107 (5 Dimes)

[Vinnie Paz]

How about Celtics game?

[LT Profits]

1 NBA Addition

3 NBA Plays Monday

Jazz +5 -104 (5 Dimes)
Nuggets +2.5 -105 (Heritage)
Grizzlies / Nuggets UNDER 206 -107 (5 Dimes)

[LT Profits]

How about Celtics game?

I added Jazz

[jjgold]

[funnyb25]

NBA seems so weird to me.. Looking at this line it seems as if the Celtics should win by double digits easily. Why is a 10 game above. 500 team only a 5 point favorite at home to a 9-18 road team? I don't see injuries. Doesn't make sense to me..

[LT Profits]

1 Last NBA Addition

4 NBA Plays Monday

Jazz +5 -104 (5 Dimes)
Nuggets +2.5 -105 (Heritage)
Grizzlies / Nuggets UNDER 206 -107 (5 Dimes)
Thunder / Kings UNDER 226.5 -105 (5 Dimes)