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MIN@PHX
Looks like a trap here for the Fav.. What special PHX has done for line to move from MIN -3 to PHX -1? In fact MIN has just recorded one of the greatest wins of their lifetime by beating OKC!
This is kinda game where Books fool around with Punters and play with their minds..
Okay, PHX is Fav by 1 point as per MAX but them winning doesn't seem likely and I would have left this game safely BUT
When bookies play such LINE MOVEMENT games, its easier to spot the winner..
I am not saying this a LOCK or something but MIN is better placed to win this one..
Bookies get limited options in such a scenario where MIN had a blow out win against PHX 117-87(last matchup), lets analyze their options..
a) They make MIN Fav-- all money will be pouring on MIN
b) They make PHX Fav by at least 4-5 points-- again all money will be pouring on MIN as good underdog..
c) They make this game PK by swinging line from MIN to PHX, giving the perception that heavy money pouring on PHX (public money is shown as something like 30/70, where 70 is on PHX, which is a total CRAP) and game is equally balanced when in reality the situation is much different..
C seems to be the case here.. I don't normally analyze my picks but just felt like sharing some useful info that you might or might not agree but I am open for any discussion..
MIN is taking this one imo based on all this fooling around of Bookies..
PICK: MIN ML
Good luck!!Comment -
The show b. Knight put up makes it seem enough to keep it close. But I agree. T wolves seems to be the playComment -
If PHX has Knights then MIN has LaVine and Wiggins playing superb ball. Players alone don't decide outcome of any particular game as there are many factors affecting the same.
One thing we all must agree that INSIDE INFO plays an imp role and Bookies seem to have access to all that. What I normally target thru my Model MAX and other factors' ANALYSIS is to extract this info from these so called 800 pound Giants Gorillas called BOOKIES which they will never ever reveal or else they run out of business.
There is no such thing as PERFECT CRIME and what I look for is the clues or hints to ascertain why a line is set at a particular number and work around the same to look for reasoning.
Having said that , not all games are privy to such CRIME so you gotta be cautious and not to go overboard.
Of course my model MAX does help me in arriving at that key number to show which team is FAV based on STATS alone.
This season is my first serious attempt at playing this game differently from BOOKIES angle. Lot of refinement will go over a period of time before things look brighter.
As of now though road seems tough, I know that I am on the right track. !!
Cheers !Comment -
Thanks for the insight, Coolguy.Comment -
POR@OKC
Projected Score: POR 101.3 OKC 112.7
OKC is Fav by 11.4 in this matchup as per MAX.. ( THATS MY "KEY" NUMBER IN THIS ENTIRE PROJECT).
Line is kept at OKC -8, so obviously Bookies are challenging your LOVE for this team based on their last matchup where POR won 115-110..
Also, Fact that OKC has lost last 2 makes it more convincing for so called INTELLIGENT PUBLIC to bet on POR +8 spread..Thats the reason for keeping this spread so HIGH..
There is every possibility that OKC might cover the Spread but to be on safer side, its better to bet ML on this team..
PICK: OKC MLComment -
CHI@TOR
Projected Score: CHI 93.7 TOR 105
TOR is FAV by 11.3 in this Matchup as per MAX..
CHI has won all prev 4 matchup..
Line is not out yet but I expect it to be set at around 6-7 in fav of TOR.. TOR -6 or -7...unless BOOKIES have some OTHER game Plan.. we will see..
TOR is taking this one.. More to follow later on this..Comment -
Thanks for the write ups plays look good.Comment -
Mia ml
tor mlComment -
CHI@WAS
Projected Score: CHI: 99.8 WAS: 105.4
Recommended Pick: WAS MLComment -
NOP@SAC
Projected score: NOP: 106.1 SAC: 112.8
Pick: SAC -2Comment -
Okc@bos
pick: Bos +4Comment -
Where's the coolguy??? We miss your insights man!Comment -
CLE@ ORL: Score: 99.7/97.1 Pick: ORL +9.5
MIN@HOU: Score: 102.6/110.6 Pick: HOU -8.5Comment -
Nyk +8Comment -
Por @ dal
dal mlComment -
Nyk +3Comment -
NYK is Fav by 6.5 points as per MAX.. 101.6/108.1
Please don't think DON, Go with your Guts and Bet this one! Worst scenario You might end up losing so what ? but The joy of winning is too good to resist..
In any case, you can't win all your Bets all the time!.. Good Luck!Comment -
cool , I think nobody got bad luck than me in past week in NBA .. thinking to take
NYK @ LAK , won but did not play it
SAC @ LAK , won but did not play it
Toronto +4 @ Pacers , won but did not play it
then I face my fear to play Boston @ Toronto and lose it ... Luck saved me when I took TOR - points in 4th Quarter and got it
oh I forgot also , Nadal ML +110 vs. Nishikori @ Indian wells .. won but did not play it
so I think you are right , wt will happen if we lost ? huh
my point is Iam now 4-0 Soccer , 1-0 Tennis , 7-2 NBA ( 2016 ) ::: because I bet slowly and when Iam sure %90 or more ...
so that keeps me in safe area most of time
Loss does not feel good , that is why I take time to decide to go with my team or fade specially in NBA " The fixing area "
I used to ask here in NBA section to gain experience and info from more experienced players as it is my 1st year to play NBA betting ...
anyway , Best of luck SirComment -
MIA @ NOP
MAX Projected Score: MIA: 100.2, NOP: 100.3
Recommended Pick: NOP +8.5
I have a feeling NOP can take this game in hard fought 4th Q...Comment -
Hou MLComment -
chi @orl
pick: orl MLComment -
cha @ mil
pick: mil MLComment -
DEN@LAC
Projected Score: DEN 96.7, LAC 109.8
LAC has an advantage of 13.1 points based on my Model MAX..
A sharp line will be around -9/-10 or so.. which is not worth a play considering the form LAC is in..
LAC is winning this for sure but by how many points is the question?
Since DEN has won their last matchup, its worth taking a spread of -5/-6 for LAC in case Books decide to keep a SOFT Line ELSE
LAC ML is the Recommended Play here..Comment -
HOU@IND
HOU: 98.9 IND: 107.7
IND is fav by 8.8 points..
Based on HOU winning all previous four matchup, I won't be surprised if Books keep HOU favorite & keep a spread of -3/-4 on them.. I will also be not surprised if they make IND fav by 2/3 points or even make this game a PK..
In all three scenarios, public money will be on HOU and that's exactly what Bookies want..
IND can win this one as they won't let HOU penetrate their defense so easily..
Recommended pick: IND ML or a IND positive spread..Comment -
Thanks Bookies for some nice dough !!
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NYK @ NOP
Projected Scores: NYK: 99.3 NOP: 103.8
Another trap laid by Bookies based on latest dismal performance of NOP and couple of solid wins for NYK..
Recommended pick: NOP +5.5Comment -
Cha ML
Det MLComment -
PHX@MIL
Projected score: PHX: 97.1 MIL: 107.8
MIL is fav by 10.7 points as per MAX..
Bookies might try to drop MIL spread further to -5 or so to project more money being PUMPED on PHX, in that case grab the minus spread ELSE
Recommended pick: MIL ML
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Tor mlComment
