NBA Player Props

skyscrapers · 01-17-16, 07:54 PM

James Harden over 28.5 pts (-110)
James Harden over 12.5 reb/ast (-120)

skyscrapers · 01-18-16, 02:22 AM

Jan. 17 Sun.

Brandon Knight under 21.5 pts (-115)
Wiggins under 6 ftm (-140)

Westbrook under 15.5 reb/ast (+120)
Westbrook under 41.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Westbrook under 24.5 pts (-130)
Westbrook under 9.5 ast (+110)
KD under 26.5 pts (-120)
KD under 38.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
~~Beno Udrih under 6.5 ast (-120)~~ - Did Not Play

ZaZa Pachulia under 19.5 pts/reb (-105)
ZaZa Pachulia under 10.5 reb (+100)
Tony Parker under 14.5 pts (-110)
Aldridge under 28.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Aldridge under 17.5 pts (-110)
Leonard under 31.5 pts/reb/ast (-130)
Leonard under 20.5 pts (-130)
Devon Williams under 23.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Devon Williams under 14.5 pts (-130)

Monta Ellis over 14.5 pts (-150)
Monta Ellis over 23.5 pts/reb/ast (-150)
Paul George over 33.5 pts/reb/ast (-130)

James Harden over 28.5 pts (-110)
James Harden over 12.5 reb/ast (-120)

Today: (16-6) +9.20u

Overall: (424-312-7 = 57.61%) +47.65u

Finally a big day!!!

pigskinhedging · 01-18-16, 03:50 AM

So do you have a system for this or do you look at the matchups?

I am guessing players you take a prop on you consider things like:
- Pace/Pts per possesion
- Opposing defenders effectiveness (real good defender you go neg, no defense you go +)
- Road games
- Blowout possibility where player may sit 4th quarter

I mean I could make a long list but I am curious how you come up with this. I've tried to mess with a few props but it's usually one or two and the 6-7 times I've bet one I am at 0%. I assumed I wasn't studying the big picture enough, but the reason I am asking is you might have a model you are using rather than going by feel based on matchups. So anyway just curious how you do these.

skyscrapers · 01-18-16, 03:21 PM

Jan. 18 Mon.

Jimmy Butler under 35.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)

skyscrapers · 01-18-16, 04:03 PM

Originally posted by pigskinhedging

So do you have a system for this or do you look at the matchups?

I am guessing players you take a prop on you consider things like:
- Pace/Pts per possesion
- Opposing defenders effectiveness (real good defender you go neg, no defense you go +)
- Road games
- Blowout possibility where player may sit 4th quarter

I mean I could make a long list but I am curious how you come up with this. I've tried to mess with a few props but it's usually one or two and the 6-7 times I've bet one I am at 0%. I assumed I wasn't studying the big picture enough, but the reason I am asking is you might have a model you are using rather than going by feel based on matchups. So anyway just curious how you do these.

There are many angles to capping props. The 4 points you listed above are legitimate capping angles for sure but the most important one I use out of those 4 are the blowout possibility. This is one of the reasons why I sometimes play so many players under in one game.

Another angle I use to capping props is NOT to cap the player vs another player. I cap the player's team vs the entire opposing team as a whole. Let say for example I'm capping John Wall rebounds. WSH has the lowest rebounding average of all teams at 40.4. Let's say they play CHI which has the highest rebounding average at 49.0 or they play SA who has the lowest opponent rebound average at 39.1. This tells me to definitely play John Wall rebounds under and every other WSH player rebounds under. Again this is another reason why I sometimes play so many players under in one game.

Another angle I like to use is when 2 superstars play each other I tend to take both players under. It also depends where the line is set at too. For example LeBron vs Curry tonight I would take both under but I haven't done any capping yet and I haven't looked at the lines yet so it's not definitive.

If you've followed long enough you'll notice there are a few players I would likely play the under every time they are offered by the books regardless of who he plays against like Bosh, Wade, Westbrook, Durant and a few others I would take the under almost everytime. Of course there are exceptions. These players are overvalued in my opinion.

There are other ways at looking at things but it's hard to list everything. Sometimes it's just a gut feeling truthfully.

I always stick to unders even if the juice is ridiculous. Not often I play overs.

The ESPN stats pages basically has all the numbers you'll ever need to find.

skyscrapers · 01-18-16, 05:19 PM

Kyle Lowry under 20.5 pts (-110)
Kyle Lowry under 33.5 pts/reb/ast (-130)

skyscrapers · 01-18-16, 05:27 PM

Steph Curry under 28.5 pts (-105)
LeBron under 42.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
JR Smith under 13.5 pts (-120)
Harrison Barnes under 11.5 pts (+100)
Draymond Green under 10.5 reb (+110)
Draymond Green under 14.5 pts (-110)
Draymond Green under 34.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)

skyscrapers · 01-18-16, 07:42 PM

Chris Paul under 36.5 pts/reb/ast (-130)
Chris Paul over 10.5 ast (-140)
Harden under 28.5 pts (-130)

skyscrapers · 01-19-16, 02:14 AM

Jan. 18 Mon.

Jimmy Butler under 35.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)

Kyle Lowry under 20.5 pts (-110)
Kyle Lowry under 33.5 pts/reb/ast (-130)

Steph Curry under 28.5 pts (-105)
LeBron under 42.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
JR Smith under 13.5 pts (-120)
Harrison Barnes under 11.5 pts (+100)
Draymond Green under 10.5 reb (+110)
Draymond Green under 14.5 pts (-110)
Draymond Green under 34.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)

Chris Paul under 36.5 pts/reb/ast (-130)
Chris Paul over 10.5 ast (-140)
Harden under 28.5 pts (-130)

Today: (6-7) -1.95u

Overall: (430-319-7 = 57.41%) +45.70u

skyscrapers · 01-19-16, 04:11 PM

Jan. 19 Tue.

Michael Carter-Williams under 6.5 ast (-120)
Khris Middleton under 28.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Khris Middleton under 19.5 pts (-120)
Greg Monroe under 29.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Greg Monroe under 10.5 reb (+110)
Giannis under 27.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Giannis under 15.5 pts (-110)

skyscrapers · 01-19-16, 04:23 PM

Wiggins under 21.5 pts (-125)
Wiggins under 5.5 ftm (-145)
Wiggins under 27.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Rubio under 22 pts/reb/ast (-115)

NCAH · 01-19-16, 04:30 PM

Sorry if you've answered this but what bookie do you use? Mine doesn't offer props

skyscrapers · 01-19-16, 08:50 PM

Brandon Knight under 20.5 pts (+100)
Monta Ellis over 14.5 pts (-160)
Monta Ellis over 23.5 pts/reb/ast (-140)
Paul George over 33.5 pts/reb/ast (-140)

skyscrapers · 01-19-16, 08:58 PM

Gary Harris under 12.5 pts (-130)
Durant under 26.5 pts (-130)
Durant under 37.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Westbrook under 10.5 ast (-140)
Westbrook under 41.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Ibaka under 14.5 pts (-150)

skyscrapers · 01-19-16, 09:00 PM

Originally posted by NCAH

Sorry if you've answered this but what bookie do you use? Mine doesn't offer props

Bovada/Bodog, BetOnline/SportsBetting or BET365.

martywest17 · 01-19-16, 11:04 PM

Hey Mate..

Just Stumbled Apon this Thread. Love System mate.. IM jumping onboard. Awesome Returns mate.. Keep this thread up.. Ill be visiting Daily

skyscrapers · 01-20-16, 01:46 AM

Originally posted by martywest17

Hey Mate..

Just Stumbled Apon this Thread. Love System mate.. IM jumping onboard. Awesome Returns mate.. Keep this thread up.. Ill be visiting Daily

Thanks Mate...and good luck to us Mate!!!

skyscrapers · 01-20-16, 02:14 AM

Jan. 19 Tue.

Michael Carter-Williams under 6.5 ast (-120)
Khris Middleton under 28.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Khris Middleton under 19.5 pts (-120)
Greg Monroe under 29.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Greg Monroe under 10.5 reb (+110)
Giannis under 27.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Giannis under 15.5 pts (-110)

Wiggins under 21.5 pts (-125)
Wiggins under 5.5 ftm (-145)
Wiggins under 27.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Rubio under 22 pts/reb/ast (-115)

Brandon Knight under 20.5 pts (+100)
Monta Ellis over 14.5 pts (-160)
Monta Ellis over 23.5 pts/reb/ast (-140)
Paul George over 33.5 pts/reb/ast (-140)

Gary Harris under 12.5 pts (-130)
Durant under 26.5 pts (-130)
Durant under 37.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Westbrook under 10.5 ast (-140)
Westbrook under 41.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Ibaka under 14.5 pts (-150)

Today: (12-9) +0.75u

Overall: (442-328-7 = 57.40%) +46.45u

TPruet87 · 01-20-16, 11:02 AM

Congrats on a killer season so far sky. Been following your thread a majority of the season and I am blown away at how well you are doing.

One thing that sticks out to me is it seems Russell and KD always burn you? Curious as to what the season to date records are picking their sides?

Good luck rest of the way!

martywest17 · 01-20-16, 07:52 PM

Any Plays For today SkyScrapers?

skyscrapers · 01-20-16, 09:55 PM

Jan. 20 Wed.

Damian Lillard under 25.5 pts (-125)
Damian Lillard under 35.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Al Horford under 15.5 pts (-110)
CJ McCollum under 26.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
CJ McCollum under 21.5 pts (-140)

skyscrapers · 01-20-16, 10:11 PM

Originally posted by TPruet87

Congrats on a killer season so far sky. Been following your thread a majority of the season and I am blown away at how well you are doing.

One thing that sticks out to me is it seems Russell and KD always burn you? Curious as to what the season to date records are picking their sides?

Good luck rest of the way!

Yes I was just gonna say Westbrook has been killing me lately. I like to play Rondo often too and got burned awhile back with all those assists he's getting so I don't play him as often now. Have to look at Westbrook and KD more closely I guess. I don't have records for each individual player as that is gonna be a pain in the ass to keep track of 100 different players!!!

Another thinking of mine with 'tandem' players I like to play both guys under at the same time (depending on the situation of course) hence I play Westbrook/KD, Bosh/Wade, Curry/Klay, Lillard/McCollum etc... quite a bit. More often than not both players suck and go under or I go 1-1 and lose juice. Only occasionally both 'tandem' players go over. Just playing with percentages here.

skyscrapers · 01-21-16, 01:52 AM

Jan. 20 Wed.Damian Lillard under 25.5 pts (-125)
Damian Lillard under 35.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Al Horford under 15.5 pts (-110)
CJ McCollum under 26.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
CJ McCollum under 21.5 pts (-140)

Today: (2-3) -1.70u

Overall: (444-331-7 = 57.29%) +44.75u

skyscrapers · 01-21-16, 05:14 PM

Jan. 21 Thu.

DeAndre Jordan under 25.5 pts/reb (+100)
DeAndre Jordan under 13.5 reb (+100)
DeAndre Jordan under 12.5 pts (-130)
JR Smith under 13.5 pts (-120)
Jamal Crawford under 16.5 pts (-130)
Kyrie Irving under 18.5 pts (-120)
Kyrie Irving under 26.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
LeBron under 25.5 pts (-130)
LeBron under 38.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
JJ Redick under 18.5 pts (-130)
Chris Paul under 10.5 ast (+120)
Chris Paul under 20.5 pts (+110)
Chris Paul under 36.5 pts/reb/ast (-130)

skyscrapers · 01-21-16, 08:24 PM

Marc Gasol over 16.5 pts (-135)
Marc Gasol over 27.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)

skyscrapers · 01-21-16, 08:30 PM

DeMarcus Cousins under 26.5 pts (+120)
DeMarcus Cousins under 7.5 ftm (-105)
Rondo under 30.5 pts/reb/ast (-135)

skyscrapers · 01-21-16, 09:24 PM

Kawhi Leonard under 18.5 pts (+100)
LaMarcus Aldridge under 27.5 pts/reb (-145)

skyscrapers · 01-22-16, 02:09 AM

Jan. 21 Thu.

DeAndre Jordan under 25.5 pts/reb (+100)
DeAndre Jordan under 13.5 reb (+100)
DeAndre Jordan under 12.5 pts (-130)
JR Smith under 13.5 pts (-120)
Jamal Crawford under 16.5 pts (-130)
Kyrie Irving under 18.5 pts (-120)
Kyrie Irving under 26.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
LeBron under 25.5 pts (-130)
LeBron under 38.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
JJ Redick under 18.5 pts (-130)
Chris Paul under 10.5 ast (+120)
Chris Paul under 20.5 pts (+110)
Chris Paul under 36.5 pts/reb/ast (-130)

Marc Gasol over 16.5 pts (-135)
Marc Gasol over 27.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)

DeMarcus Cousins under 26.5 pts (+120)
DeMarcus Cousins under 7.5 ftm (-105)
Rondo under 30.5 pts/reb/ast (-135)

Kawhi Leonard under 18.5 pts (+100)
LaMarcus Aldridge under 27.5 pts/reb (-145)

Today: (12-8) +2.95u

Overall: (456-339-7 = 57.36%) +47.70u

skyscrapers · 01-23-16, 05:36 PM

Jan. 23 Sat.

Monta Ellis over 14.5 pts (-125)
Paul George over 11.5 reb/ast (+100)
Rondo under 30.5 pts/reb/ast (-115)

Andre Drummond under 33.5 pts/reb/ast (+105)
Reggie Jackson under 30.5 pts/reb/ast (-150)

skyscrapers · 01-23-16, 05:42 PM

Kris Middleton under 28.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Kris Middleton under 21.5 pts (-115)
Greg Monroe under 29.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Tyreke over 25.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Giannis under 27.5 pts/reb/ast (-130)

skyscrapers · 01-23-16, 05:49 PM

LeBum under 39.5 pts/reb/ast (-125)
LeBum under 25.5 pts (-130)
Pau Gasol under 10.5 reb (+110)
K. Love under 29.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
K. Love under 27.5 pts/reb (-115)
Taj Gibson under 8.5 reb (-130)
JR Smith under 14.5 pts (-135)

skyscrapers · 01-23-16, 05:54 PM

Louis Williams under 23.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Louis Williams under 17.5 pts (-125)
Julius Randle under 10.5 reb (-150)
Jordan Clarkson under 22.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Jordan Clarkson under 16.5 pts (-120)
D'Angelo Russell under 13.5 pts (-110)

skyscrapers · 01-24-16, 01:15 AM

Jan. 23 Sat.
Monta Ellis over 14.5 pts (-125)
Paul George over 11.5 reb/ast (+100)
Rondo under 30.5 pts/reb/ast (-115)

Andre Drummond under 33.5 pts/reb/ast (+105)
Reggie Jackson under 30.5 pts/reb/ast (-150)

Kris Middleton under 28.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Kris Middleton under 21.5 pts (-115)
Greg Monroe under 29.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Tyreke over 25.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Giannis under 27.5 pts/reb/ast (-130)

LeBum under 39.5 pts/reb/ast (-125)
LeBum under 25.5 pts (-130)
Pau Gasol under 10.5 reb (+110)
K. Love under 29.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
K. Love under 27.5 pts/reb (-115)
Taj Gibson under 8.5 reb (-130)
JR Smith under 14.5 pts (-135)

Louis Williams under 23.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Louis Williams under 17.5 pts (-125)
Julius Randle under 10.5 reb (-150)
Jordan Clarkson under 22.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Jordan Clarkson under 16.5 pts (-120)
D'Angelo Russell under 13.5 pts (-110)

Today: (13-10) +1.25u

Overall: (469-349-7 = 57.33%) +48.95u

skyscrapers · 01-24-16, 02:45 PM

Jan. 24 Sun.

Deron Williams under 15.5 pts (-115)

skyscrapers · 01-24-16, 02:53 PM

DeMar DeRozan under 34.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
JJ Redick under 17.5 pts (-110)
Lowry under 32.5 pts/reb/ast (-120)
Lowry under 19.5 pts (-110)