Detroit @ Cleveland OVER 177.5
im thinking of putting a bet on the over 177.5 any thoughts ?
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I don't like it... Detroit struggles offensively. I could easily see them not scoring 80 points. I see this game probably around 94 - 76. I like the detroit under 83.5 much better.Comment -
Lot of things for the UNDER :
- The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Detroit's last 18 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland's last 9 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cleveland's last 9 games when playing Detroit
- last 4 totals h2h were 170, 176, 152, 186.
So while Game 1 of this series might be seen as a spike scoring wise, a closer look at both teams' stats in that game shows that DET ( hitting only 2-12 3FG, but rating as the 3rd worst 3FG team with 4.6/g ) has scored 46.2% FG which is average.
CLE shot 52.9 % FG and above average, but imho this does not resemble the team's overall performance due to the LeBron James' performance. 13-20 resulting in 65 % while taking ~ 1/4 of CLE's FG overall even for the King are way above. If you've seen the game, you'll remember the buzzer beating running 3pter at the end of the 2nd - it wasn't even funny anymore how about every single shot made by James found it's mark - dunno how many FTs bounced and fell in.
Today DET will defend James with 5 if need be - not that it will allow to control him though, as they failed at doing so in game 5 of the 2007 playoff series, when LB scored 48 overall and all of CLE's last 25 on his own.
CLE's offense is not James alone though and I expect tons of open throwing opportunitites for his teammates due to the Pistons ganging up on James. Mo Williams ( 5-14, 2-7 3FG ) und Ilgauskas (5-12) for sure didn't shoot their best in G1 and Delonte West (5-8) is not a guy I'd leave unattented. In addition CLE did not allow DET to slow the game as they did in the past, but kept the pace high and since it worked well, I would expect them to do so again.
More recent trends are :
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
But what should give anyone considering the OVER give cause to pause is the line movement : with 88% on the OVER there is slight RLM - indicating a lot of sharp money on the UNDER.
Honestly I don't know - a 3pter here, a 'LeBron-call' there and the UNDER is toast, but imho staying away from this total and taking Cavs - whatever 1st half is the better bet for this game.
rgz,
MrisComment -
I wanna just stay away I put 25 bucks on cavaliers -3 1st qComment -
i was thinking over 89 first half....Comment -
^ Just say no...Comment -
I see a lot of defense being played here and like the dog to cover, so unsure this one sails over but I wish you luck.Comment -
hmmm, how bout -6 first half?Comment -
Maybe there is some value on tonights Overs. I'm not going to play any but interesting indeed.
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i took over 89 first half
-6 first half
f itComment -
take thee overrr!!! lolComment -
I might also pull the trigger on it
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I took the over and am fairly confident with it.Comment -
Everyone's one the under with this game, I see Detroit picking their play up, and scoring in the high 80's, lower 90's.
Detroit over 83, doesn't look all that bad.Comment -
Under looks like a cinch now. Cavs will have to score the needed 100pts, by themselves the way pistons are playing.Comment -
Lets go the under!Comment -
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Too many people celebrated too early, 3 chances to win the over but failed =/ . Could of easily gone either way, don't celebrate too early in the NBA! Rule #1Comment -
bad beat
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Yes.........One more 2 point shot with 1 min left would have done it.
One 2 point shot would have killed the spread and the over..........I am lucky I was on the other side. However sweating my balls off.Comment
