Experiment: NBA Parlay System

[thebeefman1]

Greetings, all.

I'm running an experiment this season and I thought I'd share the results here. It involves picking my 2 favorite games each day against the spread and parlaying them. I use a money management strategy that can be found in Tony Stoffo's book or DanRules NHL system on Covers. It is as follows:

1st tier: bet 1 unit
2nd tier: bet 2 units
3rd tier: bet 3 units
4th tier: bet 5 units
5th tier: bet 8 units
6th tier: bet 12 units
7th tier: bet 18 units
8th tier: bet 25 units

My bank consists of 148 units total (enough to sustain 2 complete losses). I divide my bank into three aspects. They are as follows:

Bank 1: 74 units
Bank 2: 74 units
Pocket: 0 units (money that I don't touch)

Upon a win, I divide the profit by 3 and put it in each area of my bank. Currently, my bank looks like this:

Bank 1: 75.43 units
Bank 2: 75.43 units
Pocket: 1..43 units

I compound after each win, i.e., I divide each bank by 74 and use that number for my first tier betting amount.

Previous results can be found on the Covers forum.

Today

Tier 1: OKC +1 + Jazz -1 (1.02 to win 2.7)

ATS Record: 3-1
Unit count: +4.28
Return: +2.89%

[thebeefman1]

Today

Tier 2: Wizards -1 + Hawks -3 (2.04 to win 5.4)

ATS Record: 4-2
Unit count: +3.26
Return: 2.2%

Bank 1: 74.41 units
Bank 2: 75.43 units
Pocket: 1.43 units

[lylechip]

Hey, would just like to say this is an interesting system and I really like the money management system. What are you using to make your picks? You go off data, or is it just a couple games you really like for various reasons?

[thebeefman1]

Hey, would just like to say this is an interesting system and I really like the money management system. What are you using to make your picks? You go off data, or is it just a couple games you really like for various reasons?

Thanks. It's mostly personal, but I use a lot of data including Sagarin, this season's ATS performance, and general picks that are popular among some bettors I follow to pick the two "best" ones in a day. I've never tracked how well I've done throughout an entire season so I'm interested to see how this turns out. As I said, I'm playing it with a very low percentage of my bankroll.

[thebeefman1]

Today

Tier 3: Orlando -4 + Milwaukee -5.5 (3.08 to win 8.14)

ATS Record: 5-3
Unit count: +1.22
Return: .82%

Bank 1: 73.19
Bank 2: 75.43
Pocket: 1.43

[thebeefman1]

Today

Tier 1: Toronto +2 + Phoenix +8.5 (1.04 to win 2.76)

ATS Record: 7-3
Unit count: +9.36
Return: +6.32%

Bank 1: 77.12 units
Bank 2: 77.12 units
Pocket: 3.12 units

[thebeefman1]

Today

Tier 2: Clippers -6 + Spurs -8.5 (2.08 to win 5.5)

ATS Record: 7-5
Unit count: +8.32
Return: +5.62%

Bank 1: 76.08 units
Bank 2: 77.12 units
Pocket: 3.12 units

[thebeefman1]

Today

Tier 3: Wolves +2 + Raptors -8 (3.12 to win 8.26)

ATS Record: 8-6
Unit count: +6.24
Return: +4.22%

Bank 1: 74.04 units
Bank 2: 77.12 units
Pocket: 3.12 units

[thebeefman1]

Today

Tier 4: Detroit +1 + GS -8

ATS Record: 8-8
Unit count: +3.12
Return: +2.1%

Bank 1: 70.92 units
Bank 2: 77.12 units
Pocket: 3.12 units

[thebeefman1]

Today

Tier 5: Warriors -9 + Clippers -2.5 (8.32 to win 22)

ATS Record: 9-0
Unit count: -2.08
Return: -1.41%

Bank 1: 65.72
Bank 2: 77.12
Pocket: 3.12

[thebeefman1]

Today

Tier 6: Atlanta pk + Sacramento -7 (12.48/ 33)

ATS Record: 10-10
Unit count: -10.4
Return: -7.03%

Bank 1: 57.4
Bank 2: 77.12
Pocket: 3.12