JJones NBA Picks

JJones07 · 10-28-15, 12:40 AM

2-1
67%
+.9 Units

10/27
+.9 Units

CLE+3	-110	W
CLE/CHI O 197.5	-110	L
GS-10	-110	W

JJones07 · 10-28-15, 06:44 AM

2-1
67%
+.9 Units

10/28

TOR-5.5	-110
CHA+6	-110
CHI-5.5	-110
OKC-4.5	-110
POR-2.5	-110
DAL+4.5	-110
ORL/WAS U 204.5	-110
IND/TOR U 197.5	-110
CHI/BKN O 194.5	-110
MIA/CHA O 192.5	-110
UTA/DET O 189	-110

reddevils64 · 10-28-15, 08:17 AM

Originally posted by JJones07

2-1
67%
+.9 Units

10/28

TOR-5.5	-110
CHA+6	-110
CHI-5.5	-110
OKC-4.5	-110
POR-2.5	-110
DAL+4.5	-110
ORL/WAS U 204.5	-110
IND/TOR U 197.5	-110
CHI/BKN O 194.5	-110
MIA/CHA O 192.5	-110
UTA/DET O 189	-110

You have alot of selections, are these your selections from a system you use and if so how did you go last season?

JJones07 · 10-28-15, 05:13 PM

Actually initially I created this system about 4 years ago, http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...yze-games.html . I only posted a few plays for a month, I never officially "tracked" my plays with units and all but a little under 50% http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...nba-picks.html I stopped posting plays and kept working on it monitoring the picks throughout the last season . Ultimately up to this point I added in specific elements which teams do better at home/away as dogs/favs mixing and matching both. Then Adding how/which refs favor the over/under, dogs/favs and home/away. Even added a day of the week element. Anyways here is a quick screenshot of what I got:

For about a week or so, I'll only use trends, then I'll use some simulation stats as well to hopefully make stronger picks. I'm just trying to find the best edges in everything I play with no emotions attached just stats...

JJones07 · 10-28-15, 11:42 PM

10-4
71%
+5.6 Units

10/28
+4.7 Units

TOR-5.5	-110	W
CHA+6	-110	L
CHI-5.5	-110	W
OKC-4.5	-110	W
POR-2.5	-110	W
DAL+4.5	-110	W
ORL/WAS U 204.5	-110	W
IND/TOR U 197.5	-110	L
CHI/BKN O 194.5	-110	W
MIA/CHA O 192.5	-110	W
UTA/DET O 189	-110	L

Every play is 1 unit FYI

J.M. Disciple · 10-28-15, 11:54 PM

nice start

SiMON2g · 10-29-15, 12:20 AM

Great start mate, keep it up!

JJones07 · 10-29-15, 06:29 AM

Thanks, hopefully we can hit consistently all season like this.

10-4
71%
+5.6 Units

10/29

MEM/IND U 186.5

-110

reddevils64 · 10-29-15, 07:32 AM

Well done on todays selections but I work I work out to be +4.28 Units profit for the day.

JJones07 · 10-29-15, 04:17 PM

Yeah? Are you calculating to win a unit or risk a unit, I calculate and make all my plays to win 1 unit. Or maybe my math and calculating are off. I'm new to unit talk anyways, what's the right formula to calculate units?

JJones07 · 10-29-15, 08:28 PM

10-5
67%
+4.5 Units

10/29
-1.1 Units

MEM/IND U 186.5

-110

L

JJones07 · 10-30-15, 06:32 AM

10-5
67%
+4.5 Units

10/30

OKC-8	-110
CHI-3	-110
CHA+5.5	-110
DEN-4	-110
MIA/CLE U 197	-110
CHA/ATL O 196.5	-110
BKN/SA U 203.5	-110
GS/HOU U 215	-110

JJones07 · 10-30-15, 11:10 PM

14-9
61%
+4.1 Units

10/30
-.4Units

OKC-8	-110	L
CHI-3	-110	L
CHA+5.5	-110	W
DEN-4	-110	L
MIA/CLE U 197	-110	W
CHA/ATL O 196.5	-110	L
BKN/SA U 203.5	-110	W
GS/HOU U 215	-110	W

JJones07 · 10-31-15, 09:07 AM

14-9
61%
+4.1 Units

10/31

NYK+7.5	-110
GS-4.5	-110
POR-2.5	-110
UTA/IND O 190	-110
SAC/LAC U 215.5	-110

JJones07 · 11-01-15, 12:42 AM

16-12
57%
+2.8 Units

10/31
-1.3 Units

NYK+7.5	-110	W
GS-4.5	-110	W
POR-2.5	-110	L
UTA/IND O 190	-110	L
SAC/LAC U 215.5	-110	L

JJones07 · 11-01-15, 09:40 AM

16-12
57%
+2.8

11/1

MIL+7	-110
ORL+7	-101
SA-6	-101
ATL/CHA O 194	-103
MIL/TOR O 203.5	105

reddevils64 · 11-01-15, 03:57 PM

Originally posted by JJones07

Yeah? Are you calculating to win a unit or risk a unit, I calculate and make all my plays to win 1 unit. Or maybe my math and calculating are off. I'm new to unit talk anyways, what's the right formula to calculate units?

I was working out as all plays are 1 unit plays as you mentioned in post 6

JJones07 · 11-02-15, 12:26 AM

18-15
55%
+1.67 Units

11/1
-1.13 Units

MIL+7	-110	L
ORL+7	-101	W
SA-6	-101	W
ATL/CHA O 194	-103	L
MIL/TOR O 203.5	105	L

JJones07 · 11-02-15, 12:28 AM

Alright, so what are you doing? How do you calculate units?

reddevils64 · 11-02-15, 07:57 AM

You had 8 winners 3 loses......8 Winners x 0.91 Units = 7.28 Units - 3 Units for Loses = 4.28 Units Profit.

JJones07 · 11-02-15, 05:19 PM

Ok, I see what you are doing, but your using .91 as in risk 1 unit to win .91. I am risking 1.10 to win 1 unit. With that being identified am I still wrong with my calculations? Am I supposed to only risk 1 unit to win .91 or does it matter?

With that being said...

18-15
55%
+1.67

11/2

CLE-12.5	-108
MIL-1	-108
PHX+9	-107
MEM/GS O 203	-105

JJones07 · 11-03-15, 01:04 AM

20-17
54%
+1.54 Units

11/2
-0.13 Units

CLE-12.5	-108	L
MIL-1	-108	W
PHX+9	-107	W
MEM/GS O 203	-105	L

JJones07 · 11-03-15, 07:34 AM

20-17
54%
+1.54 Units

11/3

CHI-3.5	-110
TOR-1.5	-110

JJones07 · 11-04-15, 12:50 AM

21-18
54%
+1.44 Units

11/3
-0.1 Units

CHI-3.5	-110	L
TOR-1.5	-110	W

reddevils64 · 11-04-15, 06:25 AM

Originally posted by JJones07

Ok, I see what you are doing, but your using .91 as in risk 1 unit to win .91. I am risking 1.10 to win 1 unit. With that being identified am I still wrong with my calculations? Am I supposed to only risk 1 unit to win .91 or does it matter?

With that being said...

18-15
55%
+1.67

11/2

CLE-12.5	-108
MIL-1	-108
PHX+9	-107
MEM/GS O 203	-105

In the way you are doing it your calculations are correct.
You can risk 1 unit or you can go to win 1 unit, doesn't matter either way.

JJones07 · 11-04-15, 07:39 AM

Alright cool.

21-18
54%
+1.44 Units

11/4

SA-4	-110
BOS-2	-110
NYK+9.5	-110
ATL-8.5	-110
ORL+8.5	-110

JJones07 · 11-05-15, 12:46 AM

23-21
52%
+0.14

11/4
-1.3 Units

SA-4	-110	L
BOS-2	-110	L
NYK+9.5	-110	L
ATL-8.5	-110	W
ORL+8.5	-110	W

JJones07 · 11-05-15, 03:28 PM

23-21
52%
+0.14 Units

11/5

OKC+1	-110
MIN +4	-105
CHA +4.5	-105
UTAH -3	-105
POR +3.5	-105

JJones07 · 11-06-15, 01:22 AM

26-23
53%
+0.99 Units

11/5
+0.85 Units

OKC+1	-110	L
MIN +4	-105	L
CHA +4.5	-105	W
UTAH -3	-105	W
POR +3.5	-105	W

JJones07 · 11-06-15, 04:55 PM

26-23
53%
+0.99 Units

11/6

TOR-6	-105
LAL+3.5	-102
PHI+13.5	-105
NO+3	-105
DET+5	-105
HOU-5.5	-105
DEN+17.5	-105
CLE/PHI U 196	-105

JJones07 · 11-07-15, 01:54 AM

31-26
54%
+2.84 Units

11/6
+1.85 Units

TOR-6	-105	L
LAL+3.5	-102	W
PHI+13.5	-105	W
NO+3	-105	L
DET+5	-105	W
HOU-5.5	-105	W
DEN+17.5	-105	W
CLE/PHI U 196	-105	L

JJones07 · 11-07-15, 09:35 AM

31-26
54%
+2.84 Units

11/7

ORL-4	-110
SA-10	-110
UTA-1	-110
HOU+8	-110
MIN/CHI U 198.5	-110
ORL/PHI U 193.5	-110
WAS/ATL O 203	-110
CHA/SA U 193.5	-110
BKN/MIL U 194	-110
NO/DAL U 209	-110
MEM/UTA U 179	-110

JJones07 · 11-08-15, 01:46 AM

40-28
59%
+9.64 Units

11/7
+6.8 Units

ORL-4	-110	W
SA-10	-110	W
UTA-1	-110	W
HOU+8	-110	W
MIN/CHI U 198.5	-110	W
ORL/PHI U 193.5	-110	L
WAS/ATL O 203	-110	W
CHA/SA U 193.5	-110	L
BKN/MIL U 194	-110	W
NO/DAL U 209	-110	W
MEM/UTA U 179	-110	W

Pak78 · 11-08-15, 05:58 AM

nice night for you