Mafia Hangover Monday Leans 4/13/09

Bayno82 · 04-12-09, 11:44 PM

Im on Milwaukee today coming off a hard fought win, Magic are limping to the postseason and with Lewis and Turkoglu not playing and Howard looking really tired I actually like Milwaukee as the fave to get up

Booked

Milwaukee - 3.5

Will probably go Clevaland as well if the spread is reasonable.

Anyone with me?

W0lfy · 04-13-09, 12:03 AM

Throwing a parley with Bucks and Pistons. Both last home game. Bucks will face a Magic team who will rest their players because this game means nothing to them. Detroit and Chicago has more meaning though. They battle for the 7th spot and possibly the 6th spot. I'm going with Pistons at home. GL.

pho3nix32 · 04-13-09, 12:14 AM

line: okc@ptb 194
pick: 194 under

The under is 9-1 in their last 10 meetings head to head. Portland is a young team. No coasting will happen here as they are tied with Houston and San Antonio in the standings and only 1 game behind division leader F#ck#rs. The Thunder on the other hand have nothing to play for, which means they can start experimenting on plays and player combinations. This should mean sloppy basketball in addition to facing a Portland defense. I don't expect the Thunder to score 90 tomorrow as the Blazers should turn this game into a rout early on.

Skelaton4 · 04-13-09, 12:22 AM

I took the Blazer at -13.5 and parlayed it with u194.. lets hope ya right phoneix

deldgeetar · 04-13-09, 12:34 AM

Golden State is the play as long as the line isn't ridiculous. Ginobli was the only thing that did them in the last two times, and he's out for the season. The Spurs are the oldest team in the league and cannot keep up with the youngest (even if they only have 7 players.

)

peeiempee · 04-13-09, 12:56 AM

Like the under on portland. Add in Portland spread too. Blazers have been blazin the court lately, dismantling the clippers on the road and beating the lakers. Mcmillan wants to F up the teams beyond recongnition, playing the starters until late 4th no matter what the lead. So I see them covering the -13. They know they will need homecourt to advance in the playoffs, cuz they are not the same on the road. They even beat the lakers at home. Portland -13 send it

gino24 · 04-13-09, 01:00 AM

phoenix just want u to know that i've been considering all of your picks and tailing some of it as well..i check this site everyday just to know your picks. this forum helps me a lot in choosing better picks..thank you guys!!

btw i'm a newbie here..just joined today!

B's Picks · 04-13-09, 01:06 AM

Im glad to see that the under is the call on the POR/OKC game...I saw the line at 194 and hit it up, now im feeling great about it.

I would like to hear some input on the MIL/ORL game here. i have lost big on orlando recently as they are injured and on fumes untill the playoffs. what is the call in Milwaukee? -3.5 MIL right now...

pho3nix32 · 04-13-09, 01:13 AM

Originally posted by gino24

phoenix just want u to know that i've been considering all of your picks and tailing some of it as well..i check this site everyday just to know your picks. this forum helps me a lot in choosing better picks..thank you guys!!

btw i'm a newbie here..just joined today!

just giving back dude. the guys in this forum are not only good cappers but good people as well. just one happy gambling family here. welcome to sbr

HoulihansTX · 04-13-09, 01:27 AM

Originally posted by B's Picks

Im glad to see that the under is the call on the POR/OKC game...I saw the line at 194 and hit it up, now im feeling great about it.

I would like to hear some input on the MIL/ORL game here. i have lost big on orlando recently as they are injured and on fumes untill the playoffs. what is the call in Milwaukee? -3.5 MIL right now...

Fade Orlando, bro. They are slumping, have their two best 3pt shooters out, and Dwight Howard is playing limited minutes. This is the tail end of a 2-game road trip, and they are just trying to get to back to Florida. I suspect they are not even trying to win games in fear of playing the two hot bottom teams(Bulls, Pistons). Their bench will see a bulk of the minutes, and this is one of the weakest benches around.

Milwaukee is playing their last game at home, and will play to the fans.They will play their starters much of the time Orlando will be showcasing their bench. Not much more positive for this team so ill leave you with this from the ESPN preview....
"We're trying to finish the season out strong on a positive note," Bucks forward Charlie Villanueva said. "We're playing to win every game. We're not playing for the lottery, lottery balls, or anything like that."

Endz Magnet · 04-13-09, 01:41 AM

Bucks looks good but I'm passing on that game since they are going against Orlando. Never bet against them. It will be too risky, even though my lean is towards Bucks. Well Oklahoma and Portland under looks great, so I decided to have a 5-Teamer. Last night went well, I hit a 5-Teamer, going for another one. Here is my card for tomorrow:

Wager type : Parlay
Select #1 : NBA Basketball (Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons)
Chicago Bulls 4/13/2009 7:35 PM - (EST)
Spread +6 -155 for Game
Select #2 : NBA Basketball (Charlotte Bobcats at New Jersey Nets)
New Jersey Nets 4/13/2009 7:35 PM - (EST)
Spread -2 -130 for Game
Select #3 : NBA Basketball (Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks)
Dallas Mavericks 4/13/2009 8:35 PM - (EST)
Spread -7 -290 for Game
Select #4 : NBA Basketball (Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trailblazers)
Portland Trailblazers 4/13/2009 10:05 PM - (EST)
Spread -10 -230 for Game
Select #5 : NBA Basketball (Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trailblazers)
Oklahoma City Thunder/Portland Trailblazers 4/13/2009 10:05 PM - (EST)
Total Points UNDER 198 -190 for Game
Amount : Risking 30.39 To Win 230.12 USD

A decent amount for that parlay, I bought a few points just in case. Good luck to all of you tomorrow!

danrman · 04-13-09, 02:04 AM

pistons for the early look

King_Bookie · 04-13-09, 02:13 AM

Parlay these:

DET -4
MIL -3
OKC +14

PICKS:

DET -4
MIL -3
OKC +14
CLE +/- anything
MIN +12

will update later. I have some damn confidence that OKC will cover this one. I'll show a system play later when I have the time.

EDIT:

OKC +14 @ POR (I'm following some strict system plays here)

- I follow a system where I Play Against favorites of 10 or more points, who are an average offensive team (92-99 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 or more PPG), after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less.

- Underdogs who play after a 30 point blow out in their last meeting with the favorites are 26-4 ATS in the past 5 seasons.

- Teams facing a bad team (20+ games under five hundred), before facing a red hot conference leader(Portland faces Denver next), are 9-34 ATS (I played this system with Toronto, Washington, and Oklahoma before and it has never failed me... yet)

- Only take a double digit spread of over 10 points if the team has a history of 65% or more this year of covering such spreads. You can check the results at Winning Edge.com by going to the schedules by team and charting the numbers. (playoff play taken from CK's thread. Ain't playoffs yet but the mood is setting in)

- And finally, Oklahoma when playing as an underdog of 8 points or more, is 16-4 ATS in the past 20 games.

I'm playing this strictly via systematic facts. I was really leaning on Portland but I'm not one to go against a tested system. Tail at your own risk.

danrman · 04-13-09, 03:19 AM

good stuff king bookie... very nice.. the one i play the most is the team playing a bad team before facing a red hot conf. leader.. you can add the caviet that if they are coming off an ats win the percentage historically is even higher

RoagBettor · 04-13-09, 09:02 AM

Damn everyone really IS hungover! Wake up, today is a good day to make some $$$$$!

HoulihansTX · 04-13-09, 09:40 AM

Bold statement fellas...wait for it....Warriors will be favored today by at least -3. And im taking them. They have proved to have much fight in them, taking the rockets to the last minutes at home, and destroying the Jazz. This bench is full of undrafted rookies, and actual rookies. These guys have a lot to prove and are getting a rare chance to showcase their talents. They are talented, but are really playing off pure motivation to prove themselves in the league, and recieve extended contracts.

Spurs have all the generic fade qualities-----B2B, on a roadtrip, and have multiple injured starters. Their bench is poor, and full of guys who dont belong in the league anymore. Finley, Bowen, Vaughn, etc. Warroirs will be starting Biedrins and Spurs dont have anyone athletic enough top guard him for 48 mins. Trust me fellas.

cocknocker · 04-13-09, 09:42 AM

Okay as for me today I like the following:

Orlando has lost their chance to gan the 2nd seed overall in th playoffs, and I have a strong feeling that the starters wil be sitting this one out. The line looks fishy and has some serious reverse movement on it going from Bucks -2 to -4 with only 20% of bettors on their side. I'm getting with the sharps and taking

Bucks-3.5 (hook buy)

The Hornets got it done in their PC Play yesterday. Now comes the ugly side of wagering. I will fade them today when they go to the Toyota Center to face the Yao-less Rockets. The youngsters love to play at home, and the Rockets are hell bent on getting out of the 1st round this year. So Coach Adelman is going to play his team straight on through in order for them to enter the playoffs hot. I say that they get out of the 1st round this year no matter who their competition is. I must also add that they are still in contention for the 2nd overall seed in the West. That's all the motivation that they need.

Rockets-7.5 (hook buy)

The T-Wolves are 8-2 ats against the Mavs in games in Texas. The line for this game is off 4 points. I will take the live road dog and those monster points. I also will make a small crumbs play on the moneyline too.

Adding in the

T-Wolves+12.5 with a point buy BIG not HEAVY
T-Wolves+700 moneyline

Bayno82 · 04-13-09, 09:47 AM

Cavs line is only -4.5? this looks fishy as a trap I know they lost there last time but they should cover surely?

Your thoughts CK? Guys?

sweetjones55 · 04-13-09, 09:51 AM

Wow that Cavs line is driving me crazy. I also have it at -4.5

Gnutti · 04-13-09, 09:52 AM

Indiana is a very good home team. Remember that

Gnutti · 04-13-09, 09:53 AM

Originally posted by Gnutti

Indiana is a very good home team. Remember that

BUT over 90 % on Cleveland and the line moves down

Gnutti · 04-13-09, 10:08 AM

Now Cleveland -3.5

JGILL50 · 04-13-09, 10:15 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Okay as for me today I like the following:

Orlando has lost their chance to gan the 2nd seed overall in th playoffs, and I have a strong feeling that the starters wil be sitting this one out. The line looks fishy and has some serious reverse movement on it going from Bucks -2 to -4 with only 20% of bettors on their side. I'm getting with the sharps and taking

Bucks-3.5 (hook buy)

The Hornets got it done in their PC Play yesterday. Now comes the ugly side of wagering. I will fade them today when they go to the Toyota Center to face the Yao-less Rockets. The youngsters love to play at home, and the Rockets are hell bent on getting out of the 1st round this year. So Coach Adelman is going to play his team straight on through in order for them to enter the playoffs hot. I say that they get out of the 1st round this year no matter who their competition is. I must also add that they are still in contention for the 2nd overall seed in the West. That's all the motivation that they need.

Rockets-7.5 (hook buy)

CK i heard on the local radio that Yao is prolly gonna play

Bayno82 · 04-13-09, 10:16 AM

Originally posted by Gnutti

Now Cleveland -3.5

Wow is someone out injured or are Cleveland resting there players?

Vreston · 04-13-09, 10:18 AM

CK I already took the Bucks at -3.5 about 5 hours ago. It's at -5 now at my book.
But please tell me what you mean by "Hook buy" just so I understand what I'm reading.
Thanks!

cocknocker · 04-13-09, 10:30 AM

Buying a hook means to buy a half point, Vreston. I'm about to step out boys and girls. i will be back in the afternoon

RoagBettor · 04-13-09, 10:33 AM

Yao is expected to play. Rockets need this game.

Bayno82 · 04-13-09, 10:55 AM

Line in Bucks / Magic game went to 5.5 for about 20 mins and then back to 3.5 these lines are all over the place. I am still reasonably new to this can someone explain to me if this is a good thing with reverse line movement people always talk about?

cocknocker · 04-13-09, 11:00 AM

In this case, it has to do with press releases. Although it is assumed that the Magic starters won't play, effort is also included in the equation on the Bucks behalf as well. For all that we know, Coach Skiles may scale back his line-up as well. I think that the 3.5 number is just fine to play this game at. I believe that the Magic back-ups have gottenmuch less floor time than Milwaukee's, a team that has been decimated with injuries.

SportsTerminator · 04-13-09, 11:01 AM

Expect vintage San Antonio tonight. They will take care of business today...

whatisit · 04-13-09, 11:02 AM

Anyone try using statfox? Is it down?

mehow · 04-13-09, 11:04 AM

big plays:
wash -2,5
mil -3,5
min +11,5
nets -4
cle -3,5
hou -8

small plays:
chicago +4
utah -12,5
den -16,5
okc +12,5
gs +4

GL

peterpan19 · 04-13-09, 11:23 AM

plays for today:
teaser: Dallas -4.5, Hou -1 and Por -5.5

mem +8.5 ... come on play the bench here and Mem will cover....
Chi +4 ... should be close and I rather take the points than give them

thats it

GL ck with your heavy play on Hou

RoagBettor · 04-13-09, 11:56 AM

3 Team/8 Pt Teaser #1:

Dallas -3.5
OKC +20.5
GS +12.5