A Few Words From The People's Champ About Playoff Basketball

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    A Few Words From The People's Champ About Playoff Basketball
    Obviously there aren't any NBA games on the docket today. And with the season winding down to a screeching halt, it is important to know a few things about playoff basketball. Here are a few gems for going forward, some are hand picked from the board:

    Jimbo42: Automatically take any team in the next game that scores 75 points or less.

    Me: Automatically fade any team that has scored 100 or more points in two straight games

    Me: Automatically take the under for the team total for any team thathas scored 100 or more points in two straight games.

    Me: Automatically take any team that has lost by double digits in the previous two games.

    Me: Take the 1st quarter of any team that is down by any margin in a series when the teams shift to another city.

    Me: Play moneylines in games where the line is 3 points or less if you are taking the favorite.

    LT Profits: If you are taking the underdog, buy 3 points but ONLY at -170 (for +EV) for underdogs of +5 to +8 points.

    LT Profits: If you are taking a favorite of -8 to -10 buy 3 points but ONLY at -170 (for +EV )assuming you can buy the 3 points at that number of vigorish.

    Me: Only take a double digit spread of over 10 points if the team has a history of 65% or more this year of covering such spreads. You can check the results at Winning Edge.com by going to the schedules by team and charting the numbers.

    Me: Always play a favorite early, and an underdog late

    Me: Do not fade the Celtics at home as long as they are in the playoffs. It is monetary suicide to go against their referees.

    Me: Always take Dwight Howards' props for rebounds and points.

    Me: Never take the Lakers as a double digit favorite in the playoffs, unless they are playing Denver which won't happen. But also don't wager against them either. Take their moneyline if the line is -330 or less.

    BigMoneyMan: Orlando OWNS Boston and will beat them in a series. If they are about to meet in a series take a stab at the Series Odds prior to the start of the series for Orlando.

    repski: Fade any double digit favorite after two straight games of being favored by double digits. If they won the previous game, moneyline the other side and take the points in the next game.

    Me: Fade any overtime winner in the following game.

    Me: Play home teams 1st quarter bets on opening games in the opposing cities only.

    Me: Play the loser of game one for the 1st half in the following game. The line will be inflated if the first game was a blowout.

    Me: Automatically play the under after two straight overs, and automatically play the over after two straight unders
  • Ludovike
    SBR Rookie
    • 12-28-08
    • 35

    #2
    this is sensational stuff

    I'll print it out and check it point for point

    many thanks!

    btw congrats to styles and you
    my third one will be born in approx 3 weeks
    Comment
    • Vreston
      SBR MVP
      • 03-12-09
      • 1428

      #3
      Thanks CK for all the great and useful information!

      I've been a member of this forum for only about a month now and after being on quite a few boards here in Europe I have to admit I haven't found a bunch of people this good at what they do.

      Great work CK and Great work everybody else!

      Thanks
      Comment
      • peja3000
        SBR Rookie
        • 02-12-09
        • 14

        #4
        Where can I find a sportsbook that offers prop bets for individual NBA players?
        Comment
        • G's pks
          Restricted User
          • 01-01-09
          • 22251

          #5
          Has anyone backtested these with percentages? That would be helpful...
          Comment
          • The_Kid
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 02-09-08
            • 5049

            #6
            I second playing Dwight Howard's prop of points + rebounds. It's as easy as it gets.
            Comment
            • melincrea
              SBR Sharp
              • 02-20-09
              • 276

              #7
              Irrelevant, but who are you taking for March Madness tonight CK?

              Shoebox - if you're reading, I'm interested in your pick too..
              Comment
              • showtime2000
                SBR MVP
                • 11-09-08
                • 1054

                #8
                My man, you continue to amaze me!

                Thanks!
                Comment
                • pho3nix32
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-09-09
                  • 1465

                  #9
                  CK is the peep's champ!!!
                  Comment
                  • nonsense48
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-15-08
                    • 2927

                    #10
                    Go spartans!
                    Comment
                    • melincrea
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 02-20-09
                      • 276

                      #11
                      I ended up taking UNC, and buying 3 points. Took the under as well
                      Comment
                      • texhooper
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 01-05-09
                        • 10001

                        #12
                        good info. i have tucked it away into my private stash. let the playoffs begin! i'm tired of this end of the season stuff.
                        Comment
                        • joanapoker
                          Restricted User
                          • 12-09-08
                          • 2275

                          #13
                          nice stuff! good info! Mafia style!

                          thx Ck
                          Comment
                          • King_Bookie
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 03-07-09
                            • 602

                            #14
                            Hmm....very suspicious as there is no backwater testing... but I'll base my plays today on this kind of trends(even though it isnt playoffs yet).

                            Let's see if these kinds of trends works at this time of the season(pre-playoffs). Good trends by the way, and I really like the logic behind it.
                            Comment
                            • SportsTerminator
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 02-18-09
                              • 5179

                              #15
                              Good stuff CK.

                              The playoffs are going to be all about HOMECOURT. So most of the time you should be playing on the team playing at home. Sometimes you won't take the hometeam for instance in the first round Dallas and... the 8th seeded team in the east. The Bulls being the 7th. Now the second round and third round definately play on the homcourt most of the time. I think there is going to be a lot of 7 game series. A lot!! So don't play on the road team unless that team is really really good on the road and is capable of getting a W against that team on the road. That's the best way to say it.
                              Bet To Win
                              Comment
                              • King_Bookie
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 03-07-09
                                • 602

                                #16
                                Funny that when I applied these on today's game, I came up with three road teams and one home team:

                                ATL
                                NOH
                                PHI
                                MEM
                                Comment
                                • LT Profits
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 10-27-06
                                  • 90963

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by cocknocker
                                  Obviously there aren't any NBA games on the docket today. And with the season winding down to a screeching halt, it is important to know a few things about playoff basketball. Here are a few gems for going forward, some are hand picked from the board:

                                  LT Profits: If you are taking the underdog, buy 2-3 points for underdogs of +5 to +8

                                  LT Profits: If you are taking a favorite of -8 to -10 buy 2-3 points
                                  What I actually said was buying 3 ponts in those spread ranges (not 2-3) is +EV ONLY if you can get the 3 points at -170.
                                  Comment
                                  • cocknocker
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 11-06-08
                                    • 8001

                                    #18
                                    Excellent LT! I know of a book that i can buy the three points at -170 with ease. The change has been noted and duly corrected. But thanks for that tip. I have used it to my advantage! I had to carjack information like that from ya!
                                    Comment
                                    • sweetjones55
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 04-07-09
                                      • 5257

                                      #19
                                      Bump this up. Might be useful in the next couple of weeks.
                                      Scared money don't make money

                                      182-120-6 (60.26%) Final Total NBA Record over 308 plays
                                      37-20-1 (65%) Record for the 2010 NBA PLAYOFFS
                                      Comment
                                      • pavyracer
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 04-12-07
                                        • 82839

                                        #20
                                        This is the biggest collection of bologna I have ever seen in the same paragraph. Stats don't win games. Players and coaches do.
                                        Comment
                                        • sweetjones55
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 04-07-09
                                          • 5257

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by pavyracer
                                          This is the biggest collection of bologna I have ever seen in the same paragraph. Stats don't win games. Players and coaches do.
                                          The players and coaches accumulate these stats though so they go hand in hand.
                                          Scared money don't make money

                                          182-120-6 (60.26%) Final Total NBA Record over 308 plays
                                          37-20-1 (65%) Record for the 2010 NBA PLAYOFFS
                                          Comment
                                          • cocknocker
                                            Restricted User
                                            • 11-06-08
                                            • 8001

                                            #22
                                            This will be my guide for the playoffs and most of the people who disagree with it are free to do so. When they make thier own thread, I will hv the same latitude to trash their fndings. For some reason i haven't found a thread started by pavyracer. But when he does start one I 'll be sure to check it out and see what the f*ck he knows since he obviously knows every Goddamn thing
                                            Comment
                                            • jayc88
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 12-30-07
                                              • 6785

                                              #23
                                              people who are looking for a sportsbook which offers buying up to 3 points for -170 should check out players only sportsbook ,
                                              don't know much about them because i only played poker on their site , but i think they are solid
                                              Comment
                                              • peterpan19
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 11-02-08
                                                • 3377

                                                #24
                                                Me: Fade any overtime winner in the following game.
                                                so Boston is a play on monday ...
                                                Comment
                                                • fishtot
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 01-01-09
                                                  • 650

                                                  #25
                                                  Play the loser of game one for the 1st half in the following game. The line will be inflated if the first game was a blowout.

                                                  then

                                                  Boston 1st half
                                                  San Antonio 1st half

                                                  Comment
                                                  • Mac4Lyfe
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 01-04-09
                                                    • 48383

                                                    #26
                                                    I wouldn't call the Boston game a blowout...
                                                    Comment
                                                    • King_Bookie
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 03-07-09
                                                      • 602

                                                      #27
                                                      But they lost through an overtime so they are still a play (I tested the first posts' plays during the final 10 games of the season and I went 15-9, which is prettty good)
                                                      Comment
                                                      • fishtot
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 01-01-09
                                                        • 650

                                                        #28
                                                        The line will be inflated if the first game was a blowout.

                                                        This sounds like just an if statement, not a determining factor.
                                                        Comment
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