NBA middling question

[matzzaita]

Hi all, I'm new to the forum so apologies if this has been asked before.

Is there any math out there (or theory, or whatever) for how many points makes middling +EV in the NBA? Or is having a much better 'price' than the closing market and not middling going to be the best all around in the long run

I hit the opening lines from Betonline and, more often than not, I'm on the 'right' side, getting in before it moves worse for me. (Not saying they're winners or I'm successful.) Example from today: I have TOR -10 and it's now -12.5 and moving still. Surely 2.5-3 points isn't enough, but what is?

Thanks ahead for the responses and BOL.

[RonPaul2008]

I got the same -10 and also -11. At -110's, -10/+12 would be +ev.

[matzzaita]

really? 2 points in bball @ 110 is +EV? I wouldn't have guessed...thanks RP

[James Marques]

That would easily be +EV. At 110 lines, you only need to hit 1 out of every 21 middles to break-even. I'm sure wins of 11 or 12 points would easily hit 1/20 times played.

[Bluehorseshoe]

really? 2 points in bball @ 110 is +EV? I wouldn't have guessed...thanks RP

It would cost -150 to buy two points so yeah, it's +EV. I'd rather just play the side.