Sunday January 11, 2015 Plays!!!

tina2009 · 01-11-15, 12:02 AM

Thank you so much for sharing your pick, I have a question!!! Do you give tips on your picks? Thanks in advance

johnnymapalo · 01-11-15, 02:59 AM

Record
(18-6) (1 Push)

Well, I just look at how each team is playing at the moment and how they played each other in years past. Miami beat the Clippers like all last year but their point total was much different last year. Miami was averaging like over 100 points last year when they had Lebron James. Now, Miami is averaging like high 80's-low 90's points per game this year without Lebron games. Their point totals per game has decreased a whole lot this year plus they're playing on the road.

The Clipper play no defense whatsoever but they average like 106 points per game plus they're home. Given the points per game difference between the 2 teams, the Clippers should win by at least 10 points in my opinion. Plus, I look at how Miami played other teams (in the west and the east as well) on the road. Miami has been getting blown out a lot on the road by high powered offenses. They just don't have enough offense to keep up with other teams. Miami may keep up with a team for the 1st 3 quarters, then implode and run out of gas in the final 4th quarter.

I also look at how Miami played that same team earlier in the year. Miami played Houston in Miami earlier this year and was blown out. They played Houston again earlier this month in Houston and was blown out again. Miami again played Indiana earlier this year in Miami and lost by 6. They played Indiana again in December, in Indiana, and was blown out. It has also happened again with other teams that Miami's played this year. Miami has a low rate of avenging lose. This shows me that Miami has a high recidivism rate. If Miami loses or gets blown out by a team earlier in the year, then statistics tell me that they will also lose or get blown out by the same team on a repeat visit later on in the year.

Miami's offense is leaking right now and they lack enough offense to compete with high powered offensive teams. The only way I see Miami keeping up with the Clippers is if the Clippers implode (which is unlikely as Miami's defense hasn't really stopped any team all year) or the Clippers leave the back door wide open (which is probably unlikely because Miami's offense is very limited). If everything plays out the way they should, Miami should get blown out as usual by the Clippers high powered offense.

Yons18 · 01-11-15, 03:58 AM

I almost always fade Miami, except tomorrow I am staying away. The Heat had one of those "get your shit straight and play your ass off or don't step on the floor tomorrow" type of practices today to get the team back in the winning mindset. I have a feeling they will come out on fire tomorrow and with a lazy Clippers team against a determined Heat team, I feel the road dog taking this one.

johnnymapalo · 01-11-15, 04:04 AM

Originally posted by Yons18

I almost always fade Miami, except tomorrow I am staying away. The Heat had one of those "get your shit straight and play your ass off or don't step on the floor tomorrow" type of practices today to get the team back in the winning mindset. I have a feeling they will come out on fire tomorrow and with a lazy Clippers team against a determined Heat team, I feel the road dog taking this one.

We'll see my friend. Only 1 of us will win!

Yons18 · 01-11-15, 04:06 AM

Very true, BOL!

play4win · 01-11-15, 04:34 AM

what about clippers being not very streaky at spread this season?

johnnymapalo · 01-11-15, 05:40 AM

Originally posted by play4win

what about clippers being not very streaky at spread this season?

I don't watch (ATS) against the spread statistics. That means absolutely nothing to me. I watch how teams play against each other in the past and now. The Clippers can blow out Miami. It all depends on their defense. Clippers defense is garbage! You didn't see how Toronto, a non-defensive team from the east beat up on the Clippers. Toronto has offense though. Miami doesn't. This game in my opinion will come down to how resilient Miami are. Can they withstand the high powered offense of the Clippers and match them shot for shot or will they run out of gas in the 4th quarter as usual. We'll see. 1 last play:

Cleveland +4 (-120) B (+0.5). I will fade the Kings as a favorite every chance I get. Cleveland can possibly win this game but I see this one being a close one. I'll play it small though. Lol.

ONLINE
01/11/2015
02:31 AM

[Ticket #: 198108804] STRAIGHT BET

01/11/2015 @ 06:05 PM

NBA

[807] CLEVELAND +4-120 (B+0.5 )

14.42

12.02

tina2009 · 01-11-15, 06:43 AM

Thanks again for answering my question, your record show that your hardwork has been paid off.

tina2009 · 01-11-15, 07:06 AM

I have no clue what is your record until now, it is very impressive. I looked at your picks in the last few days, they were very impressive. Keep up the good work and thank you for sharing your picks. ��

johnnymapalo · 01-11-15, 09:19 AM

Originally posted by tina2009

I have no clue what is your record until now, it is very impressive. I looked at your picks in the last few days, they were very impressive. Keep up the good work and thank you for sharing your picks. 

Good to know. I'm not feeling the Clippers play anymore though. Sorry, but I did something I never do. I bought out the play. I didn't realize Dwayne Wade didn't play the last time in Miami. That changes everything here. I just looked back at the last time they played and realized that. New play. Cleveland play still stays though.

[Ticket #: 198116464] STRAIGHT BET

01/11/2015 @ 12:35 PM

NBA

[803] MIAMI +10-110

55.00

50.00

johnnymapalo · 01-12-15, 03:17 AM

Record
(18-7) (2 Push)

Losing night! I needed that. You can't always win them all. You don't want to always win them all anyways. Cavs suck!! I bought out the Clips play so I will record that as a push. On to tomorrow guys!!!