Cheat sheet for det/nj 4-1-09

[nitetrain]

this game will be close as the spread suggests...rasheed wallace will be suspended after his first day back for his 16th technical...although everything points to the over which is set at 187...i see more value in the under....i only have 3 reasons for this -


1-det will be playing their 4th game in 5 days on a back 2back which means that normally the game would go over becuz once fatigue kicks in less defense will be played...but since this is only hamilton's 3rd game back as well as iversons second game back....it will still be some fresh legs on the court .


2- earlier this year the total was set to 191 which went over the total 8points as the score ended up nj winning 103-96. So the ? That stands out is why drop the total from 191 to 187 when the number went way over the total in the first game by damn near 10points...betting over 187 will be too easy and has less value....


3-the total is already dropping in my favor from 187 to 186.5




pick- under 188.5 with a lil insurance(2 point buy)

[HoulihansTX]

Informative write up. I despise over/under plays, but you almost talked me into it.

[joanapoker]

Liked the write up........but still if the Nets set the pace of the game the total will be OVER..... scary total line for me!

Regarding the line movement (187 dropping to 186.5), yesterday I took the UNDER 194 at Portland and the line before the start was down 2 all points to 192.........I was please with myself........and now we all now what the score was.....229

Carefull on that UNDER!

For me it will be OVER 201.5 at LAL/MIL
and UNDER 224.5 at HOU/PHX (the line is so high that scares me to go Under...but I have to)

Good luck 2night

[cnleaf]

Nite, great analysis on thegame as always. LOGICAL

[cocknocker]

Sounds like you put some serious consideration into this wager. I like the pick. I do think that there is a chance that they could have a lot of fouls in this game which means points with the clock stopped, but overall you have great sound reasoning for your pick!

[Bamagreen]

I like the Under too Nitetrain! But, I am going to hammer NJN. Their play against MIL the other night was inexcusable. I think tonight, with Devon Harris in the lineup, they will prove they are still professionals and not quit on the season. A solid win against a jigsaw puzzle Pistons team probably won't save their season, but will save a little respect.

[cocknocker]

I like the over but I am not betting it. Good luck homes!

[cnleaf]

Great thread has to be up to let everyone notice

[abev]

1000 kibbles on the under b/c nitetrain said so.

[cocknocker]

Don't trip old boy. The Celtics burned a small fire under my nuts tonight. I know how you feel

[joanapoker]

I'm like a wizard......
ehehehe



The nets set the pace of the game....total went OVER!....way OVER! damn these free bets that I was to scared to take!